Why the Electric Car Mileage Debate Is Meaningless

By Michael Kanellos

In the past few days, reporters and analysts have gone to great lengths to discuss whether the Chevy Volt will get 320 or 150 miles per gallon.

One fact, though, is entirely left out of the discussion: It's irrelevant.

Gas mileage is important for conventional cars because gas costs a lot. In the muscle car era, it wasn't discussed – automakers instead bragged about how many pistons and cylinders an engine had. Gas mileage only became important during the first Arab oil embargo in the early '70s. The fortunes of economy cars, and hence the importance of mileage, have waxed and waned with the price of gas.

In electric cars, it won't matter. Electricity costs vastly less than gas and almost any electric car will score better on efficiency than a gas engine. Electric cars will likely also require far less maintenance. And, except in corner case places like Pennsylvania (a coal state) or Hawaii (where electricity is produced by diesel generators) the carbon dioxide emissions will be far lower with an electric car.

No matter how you slice it, electric cars will win hands down in mileage and fuel consumption. Besides, do you think anyone is going to adequately be able to test if Aptera's electric three-wheeler gets 300 miles per gallon equivalent without a lot of extrapolation?

Consumers and analysts instead should focus on range.

Range is the Achilles' heel of electrics. The Tesla Roadster goes close to 250 miles. The Volt will go 400 with its on-board gas generator. Nissan's (NSANY) Leaf will go around 100 miles. While Tesla already has cars on the road that have been tested, the range on the rest of these is a mystery. Range will be the one area where differences in engineering and design will manifest themselves and where consumers will notice a palpable difference in cars from different makers. Consumer Reports and others will likely harp on this quite a bit. I wouldn't be surprised if the Department of Transportation spends a lot of time on this issue too.

And expect to see a lot of articles about people being stranded on the road after misinterpreting their "gas" gauge. Word-of-mouth on range will make or break cars. Companies will also compete on charge time, but, to be honest, charge time will mostly be out of the control of automakers. It depends where you plug in.

One could argue that gas mileage is an important component in determining the overall price of electric cars. Because batteries are expensive, electric cars will cost more than gas models. Low operating cost, but high capital cost: It's like owning solar panels instead of a gas heater. You could do an analysis to determine how many years it would take an electric car to "break even" with a gas car, but it's probably not a good idea if you want to go electric. Even if gas goes to $4 a gallon, the economic argument for electric cars will be difficult to digest. It will likely be even tough to justify buying a plug-in hybrid on a "cross over analysis" for a few years.

In the end, both consumers and car makers will turn a blind eye to economics. These cars will sell because they are fun.

Comments

[Lilguy:]

A good article whose bottom line seems to be that it will be the sizzle, not the meat, that sells the EV steak. Like Butch, I've crunched a few numbers on five-year costs. They look like this:

I can buy a compact Volt that costs me $40,000 upfront and operates at 3 cents per mile (not counting the occasional few gallons of gas) if you believe GM.

I can buy a compact Prius that costs me $22,000 upfront and operates at 50 MPG or somewhere between 5 and 10 cents per mile (gasoline at either $2.50/gal or $5/gal) not counting the occasional plug-in electrical costs.

I can buy a conventional compact car comparable to the Prius for $18,000 upfront that garners 25 MPG or 10-20 cents per mile in gas costs.

I can buy a nice $35,000 mid-sized conventional US auto averaging 20 MPG and pay 13-25 cents per mile for gas & no electrical costs.

Over five years of operation, my initial and gas costs are as follows, assuming 10,000 miles of driving per year (mostly urban--50 mi per workday @ 200 WD/yr):

--Volt: $41,500
--Prius: $24,500-$27,000
--Conventional compact: $20,500-$23,000 (Note: Gas would have to cost about +/-$20/gal for 5yr/50K mi costs to equal a Volt.)
--Conventional mid-sized: $41,500-$47,500

The Volt doesn't seem to add up: It is either too expensive or--if you want to spend the money--much less of a car than one can buy for the price.

....but your mileage may vary.

It will have a tough road to hoe in this down economy except among the greenest of auto buyers.

Aug 13 10:23 AM

[Road Runner:]

You are exactly right with this article. I especially like the point, "These cars will sell because they are fun.". When the general public learns that a electric-drive vehicles drive better than an engine-drive car, they will buy them even if the price is a little higher, and they won't care about fuel mileage.

Also, in the next few years, there will be all-electric and plug-in hybrid (with an engine/generator) electric versions of most vehicles. Thus, the idea that an electric drive vehicle must be small will be gone. I won't let anyone in my family own a car smaller than a Toyota Camry for safety reasons.

I believe that plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles will dominate in the US because "inconvenience is not an option" in the US. These vehicles will still be much more energy efficient than standard engine-drive vehicles.

Aug 13 10:42 AM

[Ret'd Chemist:]

And suppose the use of electrically powered vehicles knocks gasoline usage by 50%, what do you think the state and federal governments will tax to make up for the loss of revenue? How about a special tax on 440 V power? Or how about one on all electrical power?

Aug 13 10:49 AM

[oilsands:]

The author has done a good job of illustrating one point : the general many lack of knowledge of issues surrounding this subject.
Tzvika 18 makes a very important point about the difference in cost for charging at night versus during the day.
As to infrastructure costs, every form of transportation in this country has been heavily subsidized, from rail to automotive, to barge, to air. There are lots of ways to introduce electric transport. Selling fleets to compete with the natural gas engines used in citites by corporations like UPS is one.
People talk about this subject as if we are in a vacuum, forgetting that we are bankrupting this country and enriching those who hate us by importing oil from the Middle East, Africa, and Russia.
Not bankrupting our country while creating new jobs here in America is worth some subsidy. Developing new industries here is cheaper than sending troops to the Middle East to do the bidding of major oil companies and the King of Saudi Arabia.
Most of the commenters above just illustrate our lack of information and overall planning. Another important need is cheap and frequent public transport. This is possible without expensive construction or new technology. However, the well heeled lobbying of various industries makes an obvious and easy solution, difficult. I find it strange that no one has mentioned Harley Davidson or Vespas as an alternative to using the larger, more expensive automobiles, whatever their power.

Aug 13 10:51 AM

[Road Runner:]

The author said, "And, except in corner case places like Pennsylvania (a coal state) or Hawaii (where electricity is produced by diesel generators) the carbon dioxide emissions will be far lower with an electric car.".

In Hawaii, there is a big push eliminate burning diesel fuel to generate electricity. They are turning the once privately owned pineapple growing island of Lanai into a giant wind and solar farm. The electricity will be transmitted to Oahu (where most people live) via underwater cable. Since gasoline runs about $.50 per gallon higher than the mainland US because it is shipped in, and since no one takes long road trips because the island is only about 30 miles long, I can see Hawaii becoming an early oasis of all-electric cars.

Aug 13 11:01 AM

[jerrydd:]

A lot of mis information here.

An EV should start being sold as a low cost commuter where many have been doing MC's but would love higher mileage and get out of the rain, even have AC. These lightweight, aero, 75mph EVs would cost little, under $8-10k, get about 60-100 mile range on lead batteries. Because they are small, light and aero, they go a long way on a very small battery pack, thus cost much less to buy, run.

For bigger vehicles Plug in hybrids will be the low cost choice mostly to ease drivers into 300 mile range EV's available soon.

Now if composite body/chassis were used a 30hp gas engine and a 150hp electric motor with $1k of lead or $4k of lithium, I could build a 7 passenger SUV that would get 60-70mpg even if not plugged in.

WE EVer's now buy Lithium batteries for $.30/wthr so a 10kwhr pack is $4k with BMS, charging, etc. This is lower than AGM/sealed lead EV batteries. So the too expensive argument no longer holds.

On a 2 seat sportswagon EV built in composites stronger than a steel one would be such a pack would get it 100 mile range. Such a vehicle can do 90% of US trips.

I use a trailer with mine to carry bigger, heavier loads like lumber, other light cars, MC's, furniture etc.

Since I built my own EV's they cost little and cost even less to run. I don't even notice the electric costs in my bill from them as it's so little, even on a $25-45 bill.

My fuel/battery costs are under $.03/mile. So think about that the next time you fill up and ask why you can't buy one similar for under $10k. Battery pack costs $600-1k every 5-7 yrs so about $.15-.20/day.

But these would sell like mad and big auto doesn't want that so we'll get expensive EV's to prove EV's won't work at least for a while before their prices drop and other pick up market share. As EV's are simple, low cost compared to ICE's except for the battery.

And the $7500 tax credit for the battery covers that and we paid in grants to GM to design, tool and produce the Volt, one would think it would be a bit lower price since they have no money in it!!.

Aug 13 11:06 AM

[Mad Hedge F...:]

dfg. GM says that its new Volt hybrid will get an unbelievable 230 miles per gallon for a 300 mile range when it is introduced at the end of 2010. Does this mean it only has a two gallon gas tank? The $40,000 car will use no gas at all for the first 40 miles a day, which covers two thirds of all American drivers. At three cents a mile, this will give the average driver of 15,000 miles a year a $450 annual fuel bill. By the time the car hits the market, seen by many as the troubled car maker’s lifeline to the future, the Prius will have been on the market for ten years and built up a major distribution and service network, not to mention immense customer loyalty. Toyota’s (TM) current $22,000 benchmark competitor gets 50 miles/gallon, giving you a $900 a year gas bill at current prices, and has a huge quality advantage. The problem for GM is that by the time the Volt comes out, Toyota will have brought its plug in version to the market, which will deliver the same performance at half the price. Nice idea, GM, but you’re 30 years too late.

Aug 13 11:16 AM

[aerospaced:]

I agree range is an important factor however range can be extended by incoporating a huge battery of considerable weight. A better way to improve range would be by improving the overall energy efficiency of the electric vehicle. For this reason I think there is still a need to specify energy efficiency. Even air conditioners, refrigerators and other electrical appliances have energy ratings - why not electric cars? There should be two ratings - one for when the vehicle is operating in pure electric mode (miles per kilowatt) and another when the vehicle is operating in hybrid mode (miles per gallon).

Aug 13 11:30 AM

[Steve Donie:]

The Aptera shell is carbon fiber. Like they make formula 1 cars out of - that can hit a concrete wall at 180 MPH and the driver can walk away from. I'd take my chances in an Aptera before my chances in anything smaller than a Suburban.


On Aug 13 09:28 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:

> Another major market requirement for autos is crash safety. The
> death rate for small cars is two times that of large cars. The Aptera
> weighs 1,500 pounds which is significantly less than even the Smart
> Car (1,800). You might as well be riding a bike.

Aug 13 11:36 AM

[Jeff B.:]

For most people, the Chevy Volt will be noting more than an irrelevant marketing exercise. I don't trust GM's claims for this car anymore than I trusted their contrived (and false) advertisements that they have "30 cars with 30 mpg". I will bet that once the car is released, and you consider reliability, range, total cost of ownership, cost of battery replacement, etc, that the car will not compare well with your average garden variety Honda Accord or Toyota Corolla.

Aug 13 11:57 AM

[Gandalph:]

Do the efficiency numbers! The efficiency of a power plant - coal, oil, or nuclear is about 40%; the efficiency of the grid is estimated at 92%; the efficiency of charging a Li-Ion battery is no more than 85% (They get hot!); the efficiency of an electric motor is about 85%(They also get hot); call the AC to DC converters 85% (?). Overall: 22.5%. Compare with modern clean diesel: ~48%. The electric car is a hoax !

Aug 13 12:46 PM

[Selling Naked:]

The electric car is a two edged sword when it comes to comparing against gasoline powered cars. Everyone always makes the case of $4 a gallon gas (the peak of the past 100 years in the US), but as more of the demand for gas is shifted to electric there will be an oversupply (like there is currently) and it will drive gas prices downward, making the breakeven case for spending the additional money up front for an electric even worse. Gas prices in late winter in this area were BELOW $2 a gallon and appear to be heading that way again this winter. That will double the amount of time it takes for the electric to even with a gas powered car, much less a hybrid.

Aug 13 01:21 PM

[colindgrant:]

You count the 40 electric miles twice though.


On Aug 13 09:00 AM Longinvestor wrote:

> Putting on my green eyeshades:
>
> Current hybrid cars running on gas costs
> 50 mi/gal / $2.30/gal = 21.74 mi/$
>
> Chevy Volt per press release data;
> running on electric grid costs
> 40mi/$.40 = 100mi/$
>
> running on gas costs
> 230 mi/gal / $2.30/gal = 100 mi/$

Aug 13 01:36 PM

[MellowGuy:]

That ~48% efficiency is a peak fuel efficiency which in a vehicle operating at different speeds and acceleration can be appreciably lowered. I think that plug hybrids should be based on diesel engines but the first one is always a challenge.

Coal, nuclear fuel, and natural gas are priced much lower than diesel fuel which makes a plug hybrid more economical for that first 40 miles or so.

On Aug 13 12:46 PM Gandalph wrote:

> Do the efficiency numbers! The efficiency of a power plant - coal,
> oil, or nuclear is about 40%; the efficiency of the grid is estimated
> at 92%; the efficiency of charging a Li-Ion battery is no more than
> 85% (They get hot!); the efficiency of an electric motor is about
> 85%(They also get hot); call the AC to DC converters 85% (?). Overall:
> 22.5%. Compare with modern clean diesel: ~48%. The electric car
> is a hoax !

Aug 13 02:13 PM

[MellowGuy:]

Nuclear power plants don't take up any more space than coal plants.

Mini nuclear power plants are being designed that can be placed in remote areas such as Alaska to give economical & reliable power.


On Aug 13 09:38 AM huangjin wrote:

> The question is: where are they going to put all the nuclear power
> plants?

Aug 13 02:20 PM

[Road Runner:]

Selling Naked, You make a good point when you said the following:

>The electric car is a two edged sword when it comes to comparing against
>gasoline powered cars. Everyone always makes the case of $4 a gallon gas
>(the peak of the past 100 years in the US), but as more of the demand
>for gas is shifted to electric there will be an oversupply (like there
>is currently) and it will drive gas prices downward, making the breakeven
>case for spending the additional money up front for an electric even
>worse. Gas prices in late winter in this area were BELOW $2 a gallon and
>appear to be heading that way again this winter. That will double the
>amount of time it takes for the electric to even with a gas powered car,
>much less a hybrid.

Though I think your reasoning is good and you made a good point, there are some things missing in your comment.

First, the emerging markets of China, India, Indonesia, etc. want the American lifestyle, and it takes oil to do it. Their use of autos is increasing at a very fast pace. This will keep demand for oil high even if the demand drops in the developed world because of plug-in vehicles.

Second, the world is almost out of cheap oil. What’s left is expensive like the oil sands of Canada which costs about $70/barrel to extract. The price of oil tracks the cost of the most expensive barrel of oil produced to meet demand, so no matter what the demand, the price of oil will remain high to produce enough oil to meet demand. I see $100 to $150 per barrel ($3.20 to $4.20 gas) being the range for many years to come.

Third, the dollar will probably fall and inflation will probably become strong starting in the post recession year of 2011. This may spike oil to $200 per barrel in the years to come. This will cause a huge drop in oil demand in the US, but it will not in the emerging countries as they will have more buying power because their currency will be higher. P.S. Don’t think a falling dollar is bad for the US. It is good for exports.

Aug 13 03:21 PM

[paco3000:]

50 miles per workday?
The average American will drive 33.4 miles a day. So the average American would never need to buy gas. And as the grid gets cleaner, so does the car.
A gas engine or a hybrid will always burn fossil fuels no matter how old it gets. Electric or plug in gets cleaner and cleaner.


On Aug 13 10:23 AM Lilguy wrote:

> A good article whose bottom line seems to be that it will be the
> sizzle, not the meat, that sells the EV steak. Like Butch, I've
> crunched a few numbers on five-year costs. They look like this:
>
>
> I can buy a compact Volt that costs me $40,000 upfront and operates
> at 3 cents per mile (not counting the occasional few gallons of gas)
> if you believe GM.
>
> I can buy a compact Prius that costs me $22,000 upfront and operates
> at 50 MPG or somewhere between 5 and 10 cents per mile (gasoline
> at either $2.50/gal or $5/gal) not counting the occasional plug-in
> electrical costs.
>
> I can buy a conventional compact car comparable to the Prius for
> $18,000 upfront that garners 25 MPG or 10-20 cents per mile in gas
> costs.
>
> I can buy a nice $35,000 mid-sized conventional US auto averaging
> 20 MPG and pay 13-25 cents per mile for gas & no electrical costs.
>
>
> Over five years of operation, my initial and gas costs are as follows,
> assuming 10,000 miles of driving per year (mostly urban--50 mi per
> workday @ 200 WD/yr):
>
> --Volt: $41,500
> --Prius: $24,500-$27,000
> --Conventional compact: $20,500-$23,000 (Note: Gas would have to
> cost about +/-$20/gal for 5yr/50K mi costs to equal a Volt.)
> --Conventional mid-sized: $41,500-$47,500
>
> The Volt doesn't seem to add up: It is either too expensive or--if
> you want to spend the money--much less of a car than one can buy
> for the price.
>
> ....but your mileage may vary.
>
> It will have a tough road to hoe in this down economy except among
> the greenest of auto buyers.

Aug 13 03:27 PM

[ChrisbRogue:]

Based on my experience there are many opinions and half facts based on them in this string. Not unusual in any group where so much about electric vehicles is new and unknown.

1.) If every passenger vehicle in the US was purely electric (not hybrid) the total increase in grid supplied power would jump 17%. Significant but not unrealistic with the use of more natural gas, nuclear, and renewables.

2.) Electric vehicles have quite adequate AC & Heaters for almost any local.

3.) The energy in a gallon of gas converted to kilowatt-hours means the best an Electric Vehicle (EV) will do, on an apple to apples basis is 150mpg.

4.) The actual average retail cost for electricity is $0.102/KWH for residential. Commercial, industrial, and transportation is less. Across the board, the average cost was $0.094/kWh. Residential costs range widely from Hawaii at $0.2853 cents to Idaho at $0.063/KWH. See, www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/... and www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/.... The cost for electrical travel depending on driving habits is not realistically more than $0.04 per mile. A 21mpg Volvo at $3.00/gallon is $0.143/ mile.

5.) Adoption rates, in the best of times we turn over 6% of our vehicle fleet each year. If every new car purchase were 100% EV (no hybrid mix), we would have at least 20 years to meet the increased power needs.

6.) Death rates are not twice as high in small cars. They are twice as high when a small car collides head on with a SUV, which is a small fraction of total collisions. Another way of stating that is that large vehicles kill twice as many people in head on collisions as small cars. In 2008, 56% of all collision deaths were in cars and the balance in SUV's and Pick Ups. I would have to research the numbers but I have to believe the cars still out number trucks and SUVs, hell just the Camry alone should. In reality, the safest car is a minivan (AN ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC DEATHS BY VEHICLE TYPE AND MODEL Marc Ross, University of Michigan, Physics Department Tom Wenzel, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory March 2002). The most dangerous cars to the occupants are pickups and certain compact/subcompacts followed close by SUV and that has as much to do with rollovers and collisions with fixed objects.

7.) Many of the assumptions are based on the price of gas today, but nobody really expects that to stay static. A more realistic number might be in the $3.50 range. Open to debate, but certainly a worthy consideration. Many believe that anything we give up India and China will gobble thereby maintaining the pricing level. Time will tell.

8.) Lithium battery costs are now closer to $13,000 (30 to 35kW pack) and a 100 mile+ range with probably 3,000 cycles or 250,000 miles per pack (50K lopped off to be safe). Cycle life is unknown it could be four or five thousand we just do not really know. These packs are not done when the come out of the cars. They very possibly will have another 5 to 10 years in a power-banking role perhaps in remote solar/wind storage applications.

9.) At the end of the day I keep coming back to the fact that fully half of our trade deficit is due to the importation of oil alone and depending on who you believe $28 to $43 billion dollars a year was spent in to keep troops in Saudi Arabia in peace time (before 911). This is important stuff and


On Aug 13 07:18 AM jjd_ wrote:

> Sure they're fun in Florida and California. Try 'em in a January
>
> nor'easter in Boston or snowstorm in upstate New York. Oh, they're
> not for that environment you might say. Well then I guess I'll need
> to buy another car for that (maybe the government will give
> me a rebate on that one too).
>
> Three digit economy, not really, the energy to charge the
> batteries comes from the wall, ok if a couple people on
> your street have them. But in city like Cambridge, when half
> or even 25% of the cars could be electric it will require a complete
> rebuilding of the electric grid, which won't come cheap.
>
> All in all, its a souped up golf cart with a pony charger, nothing
> to get
> excited about or to fork over 40 grand for.
>
> jd

Aug 13 10:06 PM

[Steve in Gr...:]

Dibs on the Suburban.

If you are in the Aptera while I'm in the Suburban, you will take off like a high-compression golf ball off of Tiger Woods' driver.

Apparently you didn't take much physics in high school.

Steel is stronger than carbon fiber, but carbon fiber is lighter. (I worked in aerospace for 10 years.)

Modern autos combine external crumple zones with internal airbags. Eliminate the external crumple zones (as does the SmartCar) and you are talking about the hurt locker.

Remember the "bass-o-matic" from Saturday Night Live? This is the interior of the SmartCar or the Aptera when it gets hit by the Suburban (or the typical 18-wheeler).

I await your invitation.

On Aug 13 11:36 AM Steve Donie wrote:

> The Aptera shell is carbon fiber. Like they make formula 1 cars out of that can hit a concrete wall at 180 MPH and the driver can walk away from. I'd take my chances in an Aptera before my chances in anything smaller than a Suburban.

Aug 15 11:27 PM

[JAMES CARLINI:]

I love all you "experts" on LIthium-Ion Technology. I wrote several articles on this technology and I don't claim to be an expert.

I do know that the most energy-efficient car to buy is one that has already been made. The "energy" to build a car is more substantial than what the car runs on. And as far as engines - the internal combustion engine is the most effficient. That's why the CEO of Navistar at a Chicago Executive Club Luncheon talked about clean diesels for SUVs rather than hybrids over a year ago. Plus, more mechanics are qualified to work on diesels than they are some proprietary hybrid engine.

As for the arguments on "crashability", it doesn't matter what you are powered on, it is a matter of physics. I'll take the heavier vehicle. A 6,200 pound Bentley will bounce that less-than-a-ton Aptera or Smartcar.

AND I QUESTION THE VALIDITY OF THE STUDY DONE by U of Michigan if the conclusion is that a mini-van is the safest vehicle.

A mini-van without all four doors (prior to 1996 most only had the sliding passenger-side rear door) is a death-trap to all the passengers sitting in the rear.

Aug 28 05:11 PM