By David Sterman
A few years ago, bank stocks were among the most unloved investments. Many of them traded well below book value and also sported low price-to-earnings multiples. Yet a pair of factors has led investors to rapidly warm up to bank stocks.
First, the global economic crisis no longer seems to be a mortal threat to bank's balance sheets. A long-anticipated crisis simply never came to pass. Second, a sense that the U.S. housing market -- a key source of bank profits -- was on the mend, has led to expectations of a brightening profit forecast.
Indeed, second-quarter results are in from the major banks, and they look quite solid.
A Solid Quarter for Leading Banks
As a result, after a 20% surge in the first half of this year (compared with a 13% gain for the S&P 500), bank stocks have rallied further in the early weeks of the third quarter. This continues a trend that has been under way for nearly two years.
Click to enlarge images.
Yet behind the scenes, there are several moving parts that might either derail the bank rally, or push these stocks even higher. Here are five key issues that may affect this group over the next few years.
1. Rising Interest Rates
Over the next few years, economists expect interest rates to start moving higher. "Long rates," such as the yield on the 10-year Treasury, are dictated economic sentiment and as the economy strengthens, these yields are expected to rise from a current 2.55% toward the 4% level. "Short rates," which are pegged to the federal funds rate (the Federal Reserve's benchmark interbank lending rate), are not expected to start rising for at least a few more years. (The Fed wants to see unemployment at 6.5% before rates are hiked, as I discussed in a previous article.)
For banks, such a scenario will be a headwind before it becomes a tailwind. Over the next few quarters, banks are expected to suffer from net interest margin compression, which means their profit spreads on loans will narrow as their own short-term borrowing costs rise faster than the average rate of loans they have issued to clients. Over the longer term, banks start to make up for lost time, as a firming economy means they can charge higher interest rates (relative to their own borrowing costs). Indeed, "net interest margin expansion" is a phrase you may be hearing a lot more in 2014 and 2015.
2. Reduced Refinancing Activity
Banks have benefited handsomely from the multi-year phase of mortgage refinancings. As homeowners locked in lower mortgage rates, they paid out lots of fees to banks, most of which are pure profit. Yet the recent increase in the 30-year mortgage rate to 4.35% (from 3.35% just a quarter ago) has already led to a slowdown in refinancings.
If mortgage rates rise higher in coming quarters, then this high-margin source of revenue will slow even more. Many of the major banks noted this concern on their recent quarterly conference calls, and the coming months will give a clearer read on whether the era of refinancing has officially come to an end.
3. The Housing Rebound
A quick snapshot of housing stocks gives the impression that sales of new and used homes are expected to steadily rise over the next few years. Indeed, a falling unemployment rate and a wind down of the foreclosure crisis are key factors behind a housing rally. And even if mortgage rates rise higher, the housing affordability index should remain above 140, which is typically a positive level for home buying.
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) are the nation's top three mortgage issuers, and they have the most leverage to a housing recovery.
But will the housing market post a robust rebound, as many anticipate? That question will be answered in the next two quarters, when we find out whether the U.S. economy is getting stronger, pushing up employment rates and consumer confidence, or whether it will stall out in the face of a slowing global economy.
4. Global Exposure
The most remarkable aspect of the recently reported earnings reports is how events in Europe, China, and elsewhere appears to be having little negative impact on U.S. banks. To be sure, these banks have not only reduced their foreign exposure, especially in Europe, but have also deployed better hedging strategies to mitigate currency risk and other dynamics.
Yet the operations of big banks are still closely affiliated with trends under way at Fortune 500 companies, many of which have huge global footprints. More to the point, if Europe hits another crisis point there's no way that bank stocks would remain unaffected. Banks have surely benefited from a benign global backdrop in recent quarters, but real risks remain and need to be monitored if you own bank stocks.
5. Tighter Regulatory Pressures
The Federal Reserve intends to impose tighter capital restrictions on banks, including a requirement that these banks set aside more capital to prevent another crisis like the one we saw in 2008 and 2009. The banking industry is none too pleased about the Fed's proposals, and Congress, which counts on the banks as their top source of campaign funds, may push back against the Fed.
Yet investors shouldn't see such legislation as a red flag. According to Merrill Lynch analysts, "The adoption of the new leverage standard would likely cause some banks to reduce off-balance-sheet exposures." However, they do add that almost all of the major banks (with the exception of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE:BK) could meet tightening capital requirements without the need to cut their dividends or alter their lending practices.
Risks to Consider: While a fresh European crisis has loomed in the past as the greatest threat to these banks, the vigor of the U.S. economic recovery stands as the greatest potential impediment.
Tally up the headwinds and tailwinds, and a case can be made for a further rally in bank stocks -- assuming the U.S. employment and housing market trends continue in a positive fashion. Yet considering how far these stocks have already risen in the past few years, it's unwise to expect robust gains in the quarters ahead. Indeed, the recent rally appears to reflect the good times still to come, and the wise course may be to lock in gains and wade back in after the next solid pullback with this group.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.