The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: June 2013

by: Sold At The Top

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index indicated that the national economy remained near contraction in June. The index improved to weak level of -0.13 from a level of -0.29 in May, while the three-month moving average improved to a level of -0.26. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of production and income; employment, unemployment and income; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate, while a negative value indicates below-average growth. A value at or below -0.70 for the three-month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered into or continues to be in recession.