Not Buying Cel Sci's Swine Flu PR

Shares of Cel Sci Corp. (CVM) enjoyed a small spike to over fifty cents after the company released yet another press release relating its LEAPS technology for the treatment of the H1N1 Swine Flu. According to the PR, the company has expanded the scope towards creating a swine flu vaccine to include potential mutated forms of the virus.

Tuesday's PR offered nothing of significance, but it was another attempt by the company to maintain relevance in the arena of swine flue treatment.

In my opinion, although LEAPS looks like it could hold some serious future potential in the vaccine market, Cel Sci is behind the curve with the swine flu and investors should not consider an investment in the company as an investment in a possible swine flu vaccine.

Rather, an investment in Cel Sci should still be based on the potential of Multikine, a head and neck cancer vaccine that is being readied for a possible fourth quarter start date of a global Phase III trial.

It's obvious that these swine flu updates from Cel Sci are not strong enough to support a higher stock price, but the launch of the Multikine Phase III trial could prop the CVM stock up to above a dollar for good.

For now, I'll still accumulate this stock if it hits the low forties, but for the most part it's a waiting game for news on Multikine.

I've about had enough of the swine flu PRs from this company - talk to us when it looks like there could be a buyer for the vaccine or if LEAPS is involved in a licensing deal, because otherwise it just looks like the Cel Sci scientists are expending a lot of time and money on a project that is not likely to bear fruition.

I'm bullish on the future potential of LEAPS, don't get me wrong, but I'm bearish on the potential of Cel Sci to bring a swine flu vaccine to market.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Comments

[stevec]

Agreed. I bought CVM in the 40's for the Multikine, possible LEAPS future and their new cold-process facility which could garner income on a contract basis. All of those premises are still intact and I intend to hold but I agree that the swine flu stuff is irrelevant PR. They would actually appear more sincere to just stay quiet until there is some real news.

2009 Aug 18 02:54 PM

[tiggerpm]

I agree that for the time being they don't have the potential to treat the masses with a vacine but I think you're missing one very big point. If this virus does go through the changes the WHO fears and the vacine that they are making today does not work on the new strains then Cel-Sci may play a very big role in keeping us all safe. There are a lot of ifs there, but we've all read how they expect this virus to change into something else that the vacine may not be able to prevent. I've been holding Cel-Sci for 4 years now and have a great deal of faith in them.

2009 Aug 18 04:49 PM

[HereNorThere]

The swine flu stuff irrelevant in 2 scenarios. First, they can't come up with a vaccine that does what they're promising. Second, N1H1 doesn't evolve on a broad base.

This company do not have a history of pulling publicity stunts, and to pull one for something they can't deliver on seems very unlikely. As for scenario #2, there are already 11 cases of the new drug resistant N1H1, so it's likely to continue to evolve on a broad scale.

Assuming both scenarios are true, CVM will be ahead of everyone else is terms of a vaccine, and distribution will be a none issue if it's the only vaccine that works. I agree that Multikine should be the main reason for investing in CVM. However, I disagree that the swine flu stuff is irrelevant. It could be a very timely case study for LEAPS, thus sealing the technology as a nimble and effective method of producing vaccines for future infectious diseases.

Disclosure: Long CVM

2009 Aug 18 05:06 PM

[stonedinvestor]

Of course the swine stuff isn't irrelevant at all that's what got it back on it's feet yesterday. My take is the virus when it migrated may have picked up a resistance to an often used antibiotic. That would leave one maybe two bullets left to save someone's life. If we have a big outbreak at school time these stks will all double and you will be counting your money while warning others away. If you feel the swine stuff is irrelevant then send that money to a charity. The big question is how well CVM can direct or fool the virus to accepting the preferred treatment now, not so much in creating vast batches of a vax with a partner. I'm still researching the co.~stoney

2009 Aug 19 08:46 AM

[VFC's Stock House]

All good arguments and good insight.

However, right now I still maintain that the swine flu hype is irrelevant for the time being.

The potential of LEAPS should be somewhat priced into the stock, but there are dozens of companies out there working on a swine flu vaccine - many that are way ahead of Cel Sci.

When the company is ready to tell investors that they've 'pulled away from the pack' and will possibly reap some swine flu revenue, then a PR would be justified.

Until something solid comes from the company the impression is that they are merely trying to boost the stock price by taking advantage of the hype; and to date - evey 'swine flu spike' that CVM enjoys - because the PRs are basically "fluff" is given right back.

Talk to us when there's something solid, is all I'm asking. Until then it's all a whole lot of "ifs".

VFC

2009 Aug 19 09:11 AM

[jay brebner]

I think you missed the most important little piece of the PR which I do not recall seeing before:

"The second program is directed at helping very sick patients infected with the current form of H1N1. CEL-SCI expects to give updated communication on that program within the next month."

They added part of the HA epitope to the LEAPS which could be used as a possible treatment - is how I read it. They may announce a phase I trial next month?

2009 Aug 19 09:31 AM

[VFC's Stock House]

Jay,

Fair enough.

I still feel like they're "leading" the investor.

That sounds like a PR just to tell the investors another PR is coming. This isn't therapy, they just need to pass info when it's going to potentially reduce or boost the value of the stock.

Does this quote do that? - "The second program is directed at helping very sick patients infected with the current form of H1N1. CEL-SCI expects to give updated communication on that program within the next month."

I don't think so, it's more like "Get ready, Get set....WAIT!"

Don't get me wrong, I'm long CVM - have been buying in the twenty, thirty and forty cent range, but I think they're over-playing the Swine Flu stuff right now.

VFC

2009 Aug 19 09:39 AM

[jay brebner]

Agreed.

I was just pointing out that they are at least pushing the treatment angle as there is no way that they will get approved for a vaccine until after the flu has passed. even if they get approval for a treatment it would mean that H1N1 had gotten really bad and we were all in trouble. The flexibility of the antigen presenting technology is one of the promising things about it.

2009 Aug 19 03:58 PM

[Cherry Investing]

Very Interesting, I am going to post this to my blog cherryinvesting.blogsp.../ I have been watching this stock for a while and this is very interesting news!

2009 Aug 20 01:22 PM

[trixtrader]

watch for possilble reverse stock split in the coming months

2009 Aug 20 02:20 PM

[BooBoo]

irrelevant ?

H1N1 is real and LEAPS is too.

THE REAL question is a R/S vote coming(?) and another Private Placement coming to fund Multikine. Also, all the shares coming onto the market due to past money raising moves by CVM.

2009 Sep 03 12:00 AM