Amazon (AMZN) will report earnings for the June quarter after the close of regular market trading this afternoon. The Street expects earnings of a nickel/share on revenue of $15.73 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2013. For the September quarter, current consensus is for earnings of $0.09/share on revenue of $16.98 billion. For full year 2013, current consensus is for earnings of $1.27/share on revenue of $74.75 billion for YoY revenue growth of 22%. For full year 2014, current Street consensus is for earnings of $3.10/share on revenue of $90.9 billion implying earnings growth of 244% and 22% respectively.
With the numbers out of the way, let's get to what is important to all of us here, that is, which way should we position ourselves going into the earnings tonight. It's as simple as that and that is what will make us money. Cloud, kindles, books, groceries are well and good for the analysts to sort through. My reasoning here on Seeking Alpha: it's about how to help readers (and myself) make money. Simple as that!
I am not here to debate the P/E multiple or anything of that sort since every one of us can do that for ourselves. What is known is that CEO, Jeff Bezos, is following the "build it and they will come" model and thus far he has been absolutely spot on with his philosophy. The stock has always traded at nose-bleed levels and still continues going higher and higher despite protestations from both the good guys (longs) and the dark-side (shorts). Bezos has convinced everyone that his philosophy is the right one and as a result he has made himself and his shareholders a lot of money. Since its last earnings report for the March quarter, AMZN shares are up around 22% and are close to their all-time highs.
The Street has long been clamoring for Bezos to show the fruits of his labor in the form of earnings and thus far he has not complied and has continued spending billions upon billions in infrastructure build out. If I were Bezos, I would have reined in/curtailed spending in the just completed June quarter to show the Street what sort of earnings the AMZN model can drive going forward. If he has indeed done that, AMZN will blow the estimates away and in return be rewarded with an even high share price/market cap. If he has continued with his infrastructure build out/spend, then estimates could be at risk and the share price will see the customary knee-jerk reaction lower before resuming its upward course as per the norm the last several quarters. As far as I am concerned, I believe in what Bezos is building but am selling covered calls against my long-term good guy holdings in the shares. Hopefully, my succinct (self-admittedly) article helps all of you sort through the maze we call earnings season. Good luck however you are positioned, good guy or dark-sider, going into Amazon earnings tonight.
Additional disclosure: short calls