The Future of Smart Electric Vehicles and Smart Grids

By John Addison

The new freeway-speed electric vehicles will also be smart electric vehicles (SEV). They will be smart about using energy inside the vehicle so that it can go 100 miles between charges. The SEV will be smart about navigation options that consider your preference for getting somewhere fast or traveling with minimal energy use. SEVs will be full of electronics to entertain passengers, like kids in the back seat.

They will be smart about charging to meet driver preferences for saving money or charging more quickly. Smart electric vehicles ideally use a smart grid for charging. The electric utilities see the electric vehicle as part of the new smart grid which uses information technology to make the electric grid efficient, reliable, distributed, and interoperable. Years ago, mainframe computers with dumb terminals gave way to network computing. Similar improvements are now underway with the electric grid.

At the Plug-in 2009 Conference and Exposition in Long Beach, I joined thousands in seeing new electric vehicles, new smart charging stations, and joining presentations by leading auto makers, utilities, early fleet users, and sustainable city leaders from Southern California Edison (EIX), SDGE (SRE), AQMD, EPRI, and many others.

At the Plug-in Conference, the new Nissan Leaf (NSANY) got a lot of deserved attention. By the end of 2011, Nissan may deliver as many as 10,000 of these. Most will be delivered where utility and other partners have committed to complete programs to install garage, employer, and other public charging stations.

The new 2010 Nissan Leaf is a comfortable compact hatchback that seats five. Clean Fleet Report’s test drives of Nissan EV prototypes demonstrated plenty of acceleration. The Nissan Leaf is powered by 24kWh lithium-ion batteries. The Leaf has a range of about 100 miles. In 8 hours you are good for another 100 miles with a Level 2 AC200V home-use charger; in 26 minutes you can be 80 percent charged with a Level 3 DC 50kW quick charger.

Transportation expert, Antonio Benecchi a Partner with Roland Berger forecasts that plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles will capture 10 to 20 percent of the auto market by 2030. The speed of adoption will depend on cost and early customer experience. If the lifetime cost of owning and operating an electric vehicle is less than a comparable gasoline powered one, 20 percent could be low by 2030.

When you get an iPhone, Nokia, or Blackberry, the cost of the smartphone depends on the type of subscription plan you have with the wireless carrier. Similarly, over the next few years, automakers and their partners may explore different business models such as:

· Vehicle purchased with battery leased
· Vehicle, battery, and energy for charging are all subscribed
· EV and charging are part of carsharing plans
· Integrated mobility offerings will include an EV

For example, the Nissan Leaf might be offered by a dealer for under $30,000 with battery and charging offered on a subscription plan by Better Place or various electric utilities.

If charging and subscription plans are kept simple, consumers will love it. If consumers must sign for different plans as they go to different cities, EVs will be a turn-off. Early cell phone users rebelled against complicated plans and big surprise “roaming” charges.

Standards are being put in place so that auto makers, charging station providers, and electric utilities will be compatible. A key standard is automotive SAE J1772, which standardizes the electrical connection, current flow, and some communication between smart vehicle and smart charger. This standard is compatible with important advanced metering smart home electric standards such as Smart Energy 2.0.

EV customers will be able to check on how much their EV batteries are charged through a web browser, their smart phone, or by looking at their vehicle dash. The networking and software is there, so that they could look at monthly vehicle use and charges.

Electric utility operators will be able to track, manage, and forecast EV electricity use thanks to smart charging stations with electric utility meter chips built in such as Coulomb ChargePoint Networked Charging Stations and ETEC (ETLY.OB - disclosure: author owns this stock), who has already installed over 5,500 charging stations. ETEC will be installing over 12,500 new charging stations thanks to a matching grant of almost $100 million from DOE.

I am on the wait list to buy the Nissan Leaf. When I get a new EV or PHEV, I would be glad to agree to a subscription plan that would save me $100 per month if I would agree to have my vehicle not charge during peak-demand hours. We’ll see if I am given that kind of option. Thanks to software services from GirdPoint and others, the technology is there to plug-in and having charging managed by user preferences and subscription agreements.

Utilities could shape demand to off-peak. Utilities could use EVs for spinning reserves and peak power using vehicle-to-grid (V2G). Dr. Jasna Tomic with CALSTART estimates that the national grid would only need 7 percent additional capacity to off-peak charge 100 million electric vehicles. Those same vehicles could provide 70 percent of the national grid’s needed peak power. Smart grid upgrades, customer price signals and subscription agreements could enable growing use of V2G in the coming decade.

Smart vehicles and smart grids create a trillion dollar opportunity for incumbents and innovators. The opportunity has attracted GM, Ford (F), Toyota (TM), Nissan, and hundreds of other auto makers. It has attracted the world’s largest electric utilities and grid operators. This smart grid “Internet” for electricity now has devoted teams inside IBM, Google (GOOG), Cisco (CSCO), Microsoft (MSFT), and other information technology giants.

The smart electric vehicle is symbiotic with the smart grid. The information communication technology is there. It is the business models and customer experience that count. Get ready for the most comfortable and intelligent ride of your life.

Comments

[SRF4REAL:]

I am happy to hear of another investor with some hope and confidence in the ev revolution. I am also long ETLY. The more experienced investors I know all seem to think that electric vehicles are the future rather than other alternative fuels... however I am also betting on algae biofuels to be a solution for bulk shipping, trucking and rail. I am long BEHL in anticipation of this.

Aug 21 08:48 AM

[auto44:]

I still think it is a pipe dream.

Aug 21 10:55 AM

[manya05:]

I do not want to burst the bubble you live in, it is a nice bubble, but...you can dream you are charging your Nissan Leaf from windmills or solar panels, but the reality is that you are charging it from whatever is in the generating mix of your utility. A big chunk of that generation is fossil fuels (coal no less). By the time you calculate how much carbon your utility is putting out to give you a kWh (including the losses in the copper and transformers to get to your house, the losses in the charger, the losses in the battery, etc. etc.), I am not at all convinced the Leaf has reduced your carbon footprint. Of course, if we also push utilities to move away from fossil fuels into non-carbon, that is great. The problem is that if everyone bought a Leaf, and we need power-a-plenty to charge them, and it needs to be carbon-less, chances are you are looking at nuclear plants and not windmills. Have we made progress? Not sure, we just switched poison. The best option is to drive much less and do it in smaller cars. Collapse cities into a smaller radius, and encourage walking and public transportation. In my book that is the only sustainable long-term solution: lifestyle change.

Aug 21 02:12 PM

[a. palmer jr.:]

Two things I hope about electric vehicles: 1. I hope the new electric cars actually look like cars, rather than insects, airplanes without wings, or something from space. 2. I hope they make some electric cars without all the electronic gadgets. Some of us don't have kids playing in the back seat and I personally don't like to play with gadgets while driving. Let's have at least one car just for transportation.

Aug 21 02:55 PM

[Road Runner:]

I believe the future "painted" in this article is definitely in the right direction. It's as good of a prediction as one can put together when there are so many varying factors involved (price of oil, government promotion and taxing, technical breakthroughs, fashion in car buying, etc.) that are very difficult to predict.

You reported, "Transportation expert, Antonio Benecchi a Partner with Roland Berger forecasts that plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles will capture 10 to 20 percent of the auto market by 2030. " Everything I understand about where all the factors are going suggests 20% penetration is very low. Maybe Antonio kept it low on purpose to make it safe. But, I believe the it will be more like 70% plus by 2030. Battery technology and battery pricing is advancing very quickly. There will be Li-ion batteries by 2030 that cost lest than $100 per kWh (in today's money). Thus, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will be the same price range as gasoline engine/transmission vehicles. The big expense of the engine, transmission, and drive train is replaced by a smaller and simpler engine (runs at narrow rpm range), generator, batteries, and motors. Plus, electric vehicles drive better than engine/transmission vehicles so consumer preference will probably be for the electric drive vehicle.

All-electric vehicles will be cheaper than gasoline engine/transmission vehicles and go 150 miles plus per charge so there will definitely be a market there.

One area where I foresee huge innovation coming is in recharging. The “plug” may go away and be replaced by a microwave link that “beams” energy to the car. Too Star Treky? No. Intel is working on it now, just like there are companies developing systems that will allow people to recharge their cell phone via radio waves. Power transfer is going wireless, too.

There may be wireless charging stations in many places. Why not add 5% to your battery’s charge while at the dry cleaners by answering one yes/no question on your dash. Of course it will all be smart metering giving the driver the option to charge at their rate or not.

These recharging stations may be solar car ports at strip centers and at malls. Solar will be very cheap by 2030 and many businesses will “pop up” looking to make money with solar car ports. The businesses may let them use their parking lots free because it gives shade to their customers.

Bottom line. To envision the future, we must connect together ALL the evolutionary/revolutio... pieces. The future of energy and transportation is going to be wildly different than today. We are about to enter a new revolutionary period – the energy revolution. Just connect the dots of battery development, solar development, electronic development, information technology development, power transfer development, oil price evolution, and many inventions we all have no clue about today.

If you think I’m day-dreaming, imagine you are back in the 1980s (if you’re an old salt like me) and someone explains to you how things like “cell phones” and the “Internet” would radically change your life. Almost every person will have a cell phone including the maid and your 8 year old son? What?! My mother will search billions of articles electronically in 2 seconds to determine how to nurture her favorite flowers, and then “chat” real time with someone in England about the flowers each like. Preposterous!

Aug 21 06:20 PM

[BHMTom:]

Screw your carbon footprint hysteria. I say burn more oil. Its comming by the chance to make a good buck. These guys can generate Oil @ $20 a barrel. The EV1 was killed by cheap oil and cheap oil will kill the EV2 or Nissan Leaf. You think big Oil will just roll over and let algea and some tree hugging ,sky is falling hype, gonna cut them out of the pie?
Obama wants more coal burning power plants. The US generates way more tax $$$ than would with Neuclear. Just look what he did by killing The huge loan To (USU) Suse inc. USU uses the Neuclear from decommissioned Nukes and sells to 70% of the market. Obama wants to kill Neuclear. Just think buring a few tons of spent Neuclear fuel is way lees destructive than strip minning the country side for coal. Algae is hopeful but too many generations of being viable.
And drive less? Hell I might go out and just run my company paid for Jeep Comander with paid for gass in the parking lot ihn your honnor.
E cars are great for YOU, I'll keep my muscle cars thank you. Oil is not going anywhere. Get used to it!
Good job on the book! My thesis was on the Global warming farse. I gaind most of my information working the last 12 years at the Johnson Jet propulsion Labs. You are a puppet of the far left that has not been able to bring down capitalisism and now have found a home in the name of enviromnental causes. Cushy causes here in the US, Let me see you make a stand in Calcutta or dare ask China to cut back, Hell no they are given a pass. America is going under a p.c. brainwashing inorder to bring us down to the level of Others in the World that do not want to raise themselves up. Lowest Common Denomenator mentality. It sells real good on the campaing trail. Obama is great at running for President, but sucks at being a president.

Aug 21 06:29 PM

[BHMTom:]

I dare you to name me 3 people that died from Pollution in this country in the last 8 years?

Aug 21 06:31 PM

[jerrydd:]

BHMTom, The quality of JPL must be getting pretty bad to hire someone like you who obviously can't understand basic science. Or are you the janitor?

There are so many things wrong in your post it's sad.

First there is not enough oil to do what you want. If we tried to pump it out faster we would get even less. Read Hubbert's Peak for real info or Oil and Gas Journal or any other responsible info source.

If oil is so cheap why is it $73/bbl in a deep recession?

EV-1 was killed because GM is scared of EV's as it's motor/transmission has only a handful of parts that don't break thus the make little after sale money. The RAV4EV by Toyota now sells for $75k 10 yrs old vs $45k new. And both had long waiting lists of those wanting them. But GM sold the NiMH battery rights to Chevron who then stopped Toyota from building EV size batteries for the RAV4EV. Chevron only allows 10amphr NiMH batteries to be built, not the 100-200amphr needed for EV's.

So go tell your lies else where is those here need honest info to invest on.

Aug 22 07:40 AM

[Windsun33:]

I see a lot of pie in the sky hype here. A few problems with the scenario that I see.
1. Smart grid does not exist, and will not exist widely for 30+ years.
2. Battery technology simply is not there, and despite the almost daily news releases about "new tech", there are no signs yet that any commercially available product at a reasonable price exists.
3. Right now less than 1% of the US power comes from renewables, unless you count nuclear and hydro - neither of which have much prospect of expanding. The infrastructure for large wind and solar is not there, and things like "greenmail" continue to hamper it.
4. The local infrastrucure (ie, where to plug in your car) is not there yet, and won't be for a long time. Many power plants, especially in the peak usage seasons such as AC in summer or heating in winter are running at or even over full capacity. Try adding a few million gigawatts to that with all the cars plugging in at the same tiem - during peak usage hours - and you have a problem.

Aug 22 12:13 PM

[Windsun33:]

hmm.. like Chevron is the only people in the world that can build those batteries too.


On Aug 22 07:40 AM jerrydd wrote:

> ...But GM sold the NiMH battery rights to Chevron who then stopped
> Toyota from building EV size batteries for the RAV4EV. Chevron only
> allows 10amphr NiMH batteries to be built, not the 100-200amphr needed
> for EV's.
>
> So go tell your lies else where is those here need honest info to
> invest on.

Aug 22 12:15 PM

[Parsifal:]

If the author of this column is long ETLY, I hope he is prepared for the massive dilution that is about to hit.

Aug 23 02:42 PM

[Road Runner:]

jerrydd said, "If oil is so cheap why is it $73/bbl in a deep recession?".

It's because oil now is an asset class that investment professionals are recommending people hold. It is seen as a hedge against inflation and against a falling dollar.

I just heard another oil analyst on CNBC Friday talk about this new, since 2002, phenomena of using oil as an asset class. He said that without this investment class oil would be very much lower, like near $30 a barrel.

Aug 23 05:03 PM

[Road Runner:]

Windsun33 said, "2. Battery technology simply is not there, and despite the almost daily news releases about "new tech", there are no signs yet that any commercially available product at a reasonable price exists.".

Please research the LiFePO4 (Lithium Iron Phosphate) battery by A123 and BYD of China. These batteries are in production now, though in limited quantities. They are ideal for vehicles. And, they have the potential to be cheap. It's just a matter of normally expected incremental improvements in battery design and manufacturing techniques, and a large increase in manufacturing scale.

Aug 23 05:16 PM

[EVNow:]

When you say "I am on the wait list to buy the Nissan Leaf." - are you saying you will get on a waiting list when it becomes available or is there a list not available to everyone ?

Aug 23 09:47 PM