Thursday Options Recap 27 comments
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Sentiment
Trading was off to a slow start Thursday morning on poor weekly jobless claims data and a disappointing earnings report from Sears Holdings (SHLD). Before the opening bell on Wall Street, the Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims increased by 15,000 in the week ended August 15. Stock index futures slipped on the news, as economists were looking for a decline of 11,000. Meanwhile, Sears shares were trading down 12.5 percent after the retailer said it lost 17 cents in the quarter. Analysts were expecting a 35-cent profit.
The major averages found a floor in morning trading with help from better-than-expected manufacturing data. The Philadelphia Fed Survey improved to +4.2 in August, which was significantly better than the -2.0 economists had predicted and a big improvement from the -7.5 seen in July. Meanwhile, AIG is ripping higher and helping the financials after the company's CEO pledged to pay back taxpayer money.
By late-day Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had traded in a narrow 82 point range and is up 65 points heading into the final forty-five minutes of trading. Trading in the options market is active due to the expiration, with approximately 5.2 million puts and 7.2 million calls traded so far (a ratio of .72, compared to a 22-day average of .82.)
Bullish Flow
Mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are moving higher, as financials rally around AIG (AIG) news Thursday. FNM is up 17 cents to $1.09 and 23K calls traded, compared to 4,100 puts. Aug and Sep 1 calls are the most actives. Implied volatility in FNM is 132 (-1), compared to a 52-week high and low of 372 and 105. FRE is up 1.22 to $1.54. 9,400 calls traded, compared to 991 puts. Sep 2 and Jan10 2.5 calls are the most actives. Implied volatility in FRE is up to 170 (+17), compared to a 52-week high and low of 390 and 107.
While one spread trader focused on BofA (BAC) Jan2011 30 - 35 call spreads this morning, another recently bought 15000 Jan2010 17.5 - 22.5 call spreads for $1.49. Position was tied to shares at $17.10 (33 Delta). BAC is up 36 cents to $17.11.
Bearish Flow
US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) fell 39 cents to $11.62 and hit a new 52-week low after bearish inventory data sent natty gas (Sep) down 17.1 cents to $2.948. In the options market, trading in UNG was brisk today, with 160K puts and 116K calls traded. Top trades include 10000 October 12.5 straddles (puts and calls) bought for an average of $2.375 per straddle -- which appears to be a substantial bet that the volatility in natural gas will continue in the months ahead.
Implied Volatility Movers
The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) fell and made a run back below 25. VIX is down 1.38 to 24.88 late in the day. Only one economic stat is due out tomorrow--existing home sales--and the earnings calendar is light. Consequently, VIX is falling now that a substantial amount of this week's "event risk" has passed.
Implied volatility is also lower in Sears Holdings (SHLD), Gymboree (GYMB), and Fannie Mae (FNM). Meanwhile, implied volatility is higher in Sirius Satellite (SIRI), Freddie Mac (FRE), and AIG.
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relmar2003 works for SIRI and has been spewing SIRI propiganda for 2 years.
He used 14 userIDs here to drive off any truth about SIRI...
All you do is spew bile about how every rally is false and to SELL SELL SELL. I'm certain that your entire motive is to desperately attempt to drop the price that way you can obtain an actual position in the stock on the cheaper side. You'd think blatant bashing of the magnitude that you've committed month after month would be considered illegal since you constantly post false information.
On Aug 20 06:51 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> BEWARE
> relmar2003 works for SIRI and has been spewing SIRI propiganda for
> 2 years.
>
> He used 14 userIDs here to drive off any truth about SIRI...
It was all about how Mel wanted apple to make a satellite Ipod...about a buy out,...there was all kinds of chatter.
Looking back now, it was just before Iphone was released. Everyone was sad that the Sat Iphone never came to be...
So this year, they now have a sat Iphone, yes, first by streaming through wifi, vs that feared antenna that we all envisioned back then.,..
so Mel puts out the streaming option, and once again gets screwed by NAB about streaming content...fees Im referring to..
So for those people that have doubted Mel, look at this latest move, even better than the merger...
He sees there is challenges with the NAB for fees, gets his team together to be ahead of the curve on this and goes and creates this latest Sky Doc.
So consider that streaming option as a band aid, he has created a new technology that is ahead of the laws.No fees, and he punked the NAB group by telling them to go stick their royalty fees. Now they will only be able to get the original fees for the sat radio, not additional streaming fees on top of those.
Me is a brilliant man. I am sure all these moves didnt just come about this year, they were in the planning way back when Mel actually was visitng Apple in Cupertino.
OMG and I almost forgot, he taps into the Bose market by producing desktop speaker system to a market that have over 40 million devices in it already..
Relmar is a good guy and saved me from selling my whole life savings during BK scare.
On Aug 20 06:51 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> BEWARE
> relmar2003 works for SIRI and has been spewing SIRI propiganda for
> 2 years.
>
> He used 14 userIDs here to drive off any truth about SIRI...
AP) SIRI-DOOM was found hung in his apartment late thursday evening. They found a suicide note laying on the floor below him. It was hard to read due to being found in a puddle of water right below his hanging body, but the note said something on the order of "I wish I would have listened to relmor". Nothing else at all could be found in the room, which is leading to an investigation of possible homicide.
After reading a few of his posts I truly believe it was suicide, so that being the case and w/ nothing found in the room except 4 walls and a puddle of water and a corps hanging from a rope (did u know that when someone is hung thay automaticly crap their pants due to loss of muscle control, he stunk) how did the "Doomer" elevate himself to get the rope around his neck? Answer later on today, stay tuned. If someone guesses how he did it thay get a free whack with a stick at this human pinata.
On Aug 20 05:04 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> BEWARE
>
> If SIRI is NOT trading at or over 1.00 by September 12, the NasD
> will be sending a delisting warning letter.
>
> IMHO This news will nose dive SIRI sp.
>
> The rev-split of 10-50 for 1 share is looming like a deadly virus...
On Aug 21 09:47 AM justice for all wrote:
> he stood on a block of ice
Love you,
Between the Hedges
Do you really want to know?
Mel is screwing SIRI Stock Holders for his continued but ever changing evil plans. Mel has no respect for The “Unwashed Common Stock Holder”.
December 08 before the stock holder meeting, I informed everyone on Seeking Alpha that “Two Private Investors have made offer to Mel. The offers would have eliminated the need for a Rev-Split. If Mel had taken one of the two offers we would all be looking good and no Rev-Split would be looming. Mel refused the offers before the December 08 Stock holder Meeting. Mel NEVER INFORMED STOCK HOLDERS OF THE OFFERS. The offers at the time were much better than what happened in the SIRI takeover war.
Now, Mel wants his Rev Split and he will soon get it. Originally Mel desired to take SIRI private and this may still be in the works. However, now we have a 40 percent partner. One way to reduce that 40 percent partner is to Rev-Split 1 for 50 and then issue more stock during the next “Mel created emergency”. The key idea here is that Mel has a plan and his plans always screw stock holders.
More history- Mel invented a lawsuit and paid a third party to sue SIRI. Yes, you read that correctly. It is well known that Mel attempted to get total protection from class actions of stock holders for his antics during the merger. Fortunately, Michal Hartlib discovered the corruption and prevented Mel from obtaining the protection. The Judge in that case was outraged.
SIRI Stock Holders can not get a fair vote. Between our 40 percent partner and the reserve stock held by the company, public stock holders are out-numbered. Mel is a wild man and he is running fully unchecked.
Wall Street and Main Media have been burned and given up on SIRI. They know but can not write about what Mel did to stock holders of three companies that he devastated, took private, and merged to build Viacom. Three years beating back lawsuits and Mel became a media mogul on the backs of poor beaten investors. This is all well known information that Mel is proud to speak about during parties for the rich and famous.
Mel will continue to make his little innocent looking mistakes. He will have you believing the world is beating him up. But what is truly going on is Mel and Goldman Sacks are making millions trading SIRI on the back end. This billion dollar monster is Mel’s “Cash Cow” and the “Unclean Stock Holder” is getting milked.
Most or the main stream investors (other than insiders) are avoiding SIRI like a disease. Most will NOT touch SIRI until the Rev-Split is over or off the table. So, SIRI will not go over 1.00 and will need the Rev Split to keep its NasD listing. Mel wants this split. Do not expect Mel to do anything correctly until after he gets his Rev-Split.
I have posted this information so that new comers understand the deep crap they are looking at in SIRI. I will not be responding. I got tired of defending the truth of SIRI long past. Some Bloggers and Seeking Alpha get a pay check for beating up people for posting the truth about SIRI here…
I am NOT Michal Hartlib, NOT part of that group, NOT part of the movie. But, I did quit a long time ago…
Hear is what Mel has don for his reward:
Day of the merger
- IMHO, the financing for the merger was more than “quick and dirty”, it was a disaster. It provided Goldman Sacks a lean guarantee with “off the books” shares that are still being used to short the stock. Add the misrepresented news that the lean shares saturate investor’s shares and we have a second disaster.
- Public information later revealed that Mel discovered XM debt was more than anticipated. During the long wait for the FCC, XM continued to degrade. Mel should have backed away. Mel could have backed away and this can NOT be blamed on the FCC. Backing away would have saved 5 or 6 billion in “good will” debt. XM was on its way to bankruptcy in less than 8 months. The Small risk of some other company interfering with receivership was offset by the FCC having granted merger authority. Mel should have backed away.
So, Mel does the merger and now we hear mass loses of billions. Mel provides garbage justification “GOOD WILL DEBT”. That did a lot for the stock price.
Mel never had financing for a multi billion dollar merger. If you can believe that, I can find you some cheap ocean front property. “Quick and dirty”.
Advance in time to December 08. Mel needs financing again. (THIS IS PUBLIC INFORMATION WE CONFIRMED DURRING THE TAKOVER WAR) Mel had two private offers for financing on his desk 12 December 2008. Mel never told stock holders about these offers.
On 18 December 2008, during the Stock Holder Meeting, Mel got approval for a 10 – 50 for 1 rev split because supposable, “he could not get financing”. Mel turned down financing. MEL LIED TO STOCK HOLDERS! He turned down financing. The pending/possible rev-split has loomed over the stock price like a plague.
Mel turned down both private offers on 15 December 2008. By April 2009 SIRI was near bankruptcy. A take over war followed as stocks and bonds traded privately in an attempt to take SIRI away. Mel finally gave way to Liberty, Malone in the worst financing deal in US history. Mel sacrificed board seats, 40 percent saturation, and incredible interest rates plus other guarantees.
The New York Time quoted Mr. Malone, “We had made Mel private offers in December that were much better than the current deal”.
THE POINT: Every shred of bad news about SIRI since the merger has been directly caused by Mel. This gangster has nearly destroyed SIRI.
Today, we seem to be looking up. Everything is set for a nice pop in SIRI value. After everything Mel has put Stock Holders through, I can not help but wonder what Mel is about to do wrong next. What will the 2nd quarter reveal?
IMHO…
Heavy Long from Pre-Merger… and holding…
Day's Range: 0.69 - 0.78
.70
.70
If SIRI is NOT trading at or over 1.00 by September 12, the NasD will be sending a delisting warning letter.
IMHO This news will nose dive SIRI sp.
The rev-split of 10-50 for 1 share is looming like a deadly virus...
&
CASH FOR CLUNKERS ENDS MONDAY
Skydock news is already out...
So, what will keep SIRI going up to 1.00 to stop the NasD delisting warrning?
LONG SIRI 40,000 pre mersger shares... I also day trade SIRI but will not hold overnight do to the high risk at this time...