Is Toyota Losing Ground in the Electric Vehicles Race?

By Richard Read

An interesting article in the New York Times suggests that Toyota (TM) -- the same Toyota that's often considered to be at the forefront of the green car movement, thanks to its popular Prius hybrid and all those eye-popping, folksy TV ads you've been seeing -- is slipping in the race to bring fully electric vehicles to the marketplace.

It's an interesting proposition, and one that bears considering. For quite some time, the commonly held belief has been that hybrids are the way of the future. Concerns about batteries size and weight, not to mention range, have led many in the industry -- both automakers and journalists -- to conclude that it will be years, if not decades, before EVs become fully practical for mass-market consumers. And that may be true. However, it hasn't stopped many major manufacturers from developing electric vehicles.

In addition to Tesla, which is the only company in the U.S. currently offering highway-ready electric vehicles to consumers, Nissan (NSANY) has been working on EVs for some time in partnership with Renault, and recently unveiled its new Leaf model. Mitsubishi has its i-MiEV. Even BMW has the MINI-E and is likely going to roll out a new line of electric city cars in the very near future (possibly under the relaunched Isetta brand).

To be sure, Toyota isn't alone in holding off on EV's. The big news from America's Big Three has centered around the upcoming Chevy Volt, which is touted for its electric credentials, but which is, of course, an extended-range hybrid*. No, the question is: given Toyota's popular perception as an eco-minded company, and given its huge global reputation and resources, why is Toyota waiting until 2012 to unveil its first EV?

This may just be a smart business move for Toyota, which could be waiting for the technology to evolve and consumer tendencies to solidify. In recent months, it feels as though there's been a greater acceptance of EV's in the industry and an understanding that hybrids are really just a stepping stone along the way. In fact, the hydrogen fuel-cell seems to have gained some momentum recently, and Toyota's president, Akio Toyoda, has even refered to that as the "ultimate" technology -- although it hasn't made any development announcements on that front, even as the Honda (HMC) FCX Clarity has hit U.S. roadways.

Of course, this is all speculation, and product development relies on more than just consumer interest and demand. We're sure that Toyota could rollout an EV fairly quickly if it wanted to -- but when and if it will, and what form it may take, remain to be seen.

* General Motors and some TCC staffers argue that the Chevy Volt is not a hybrid, but rather an extended-range electric vehicle, since its wheels are powered solely by electricity and gas is used to recharge the Volt's battery. Others find that argument a little disingenuous and more than a little semantic: unless a driver is willing to limit herself to the Volt's 40-mile electric-only range, she's going to have to use gas to get around. Wherever you fall in that argument, it would seem that in using gas -- if only to allay driver anxiety -- the Volt still fails to qualify as a fully electric vehicle. But you know where to register your objections.

Comments

[Jeff B.:]

Toyota is only considered the Green Vehicle leader by folks who don't really know cars. Honda is way ahead on this front. The Clarity FCX is already the 3rd gen fuel cell vehicle Honda has on US roads. The Prius is a nice hybrid, but it has zero appeal to anyone who actually enjoys driving. The Volt is yet another case of GM over-promising and under-delivering. I woudln't put my money on that. The real question is how we will get electricity to these vehicles, and when will the entrenched US energy industry (oil & gas) be forced to deal with reality?

Aug 21 10:25 AM

[evmdfan:]

Don't forget though, that Toyota has experience in the Electric Vehicle market- they built the Toyota RAV4-EV over a decade ago. In the end, when it comes to batteries, Toyota knows what will work and what won't. That's why despite every automaker turning to li-ion, they've stuck with NiMH batteries. As for them believing that fuel cell is the future- it isn't. Hydrogen doesn't make sense. Why use electricity to compress hydrogen, to burn the hydrogen to generate electricity to drive an electric engine? Fuel cell vehicles won't ever be as safe and efficient as electric cars- not to mention electric cars give you so many more option as to where your electricity comes from. For a more indepth comparison of hydrogen and electric cars, I recommend the book "Two Cents Per Mile" by Nevres Cefo... you can read excerpts of the book on Amazon at bit.ly/2centspermile

Aug 21 11:19 AM

[joekiess:]

It amazes me how you people in journalism, rather than clear up the confusion, add to it by not seemingly knowing the difference between different types of hybrids. A car which runs soley on electricity is an EV (electric Vehicle). A car which runs on electricity in conjunction with an engine which is also capable of turing the wheels is a parallel hybrid (the Prius). A car which runs on electricity but has an engine-powered generator to either charge the batteries or provide electricity to the electric motor but has no capability of otherwise turning the wheels is a series hybrid (the Volt). What, exactly is so hard about that?

Aug 21 11:25 AM

[MellowGuy:]

The race is for a plug hybrid vehicle. Most people average less than 40 miles a day on their vehicle, but may need to make trips of up to 400 miles on occasion. The long trips necessitate having liquid fueled engine, but the short trips can be handled with an affordable battery (if it can handle a large number of charge/discharge cycles). The hybrid feature is needed to increase the milage of city with its frequent stops by using regenerative braking.

A neighbor has converted his Prius to a plug-in Hybrid and uses a solar array in his back yard to charge it.

Aug 21 12:23 PM

[joeb1:]

What is wrong with Ford? Why isnt anyone talking about the Transit, wich is an all electric vehicle, on sale now in the U.S.. When asking how will theese vehicles get thier power, well there have been multiple articles over the last few days about Ford working with the energy companys to solve this problem. As well, Ford is going to have an all electric vehicle on sale by 2011 not 2012 like the Volt. And as far as I can tell, the payback for an EV or hybrid is not currently feasible. I think the direct inject, deisel, turbo charging, and turning off cylinders when not needed is currently BY FAR the most econimical way to go. However if you just want to keep the jobs and money in the US, then please do buy a hybrid from anyone that gets thier batteries from the US..."MAGNA"! in Michigan.

Aug 21 03:55 PM

[TinyTim:]

"General Motors and some TCC staffers argue that the Chevy Volt is not a hybrid, but rather an extended-range electric vehicle, since its wheels are powered solely by electricity and gas is used to recharge the Volt's battery."

Let's cut the BS.
It has an internal combustion engine and batteries / motor.
That means it's a hybrid.

Specifically, it's a series hybrid because the electric motor only is turning the wheels, as opposed to both ICE and motor.

If it has a plug, presumably it has some electric only range.

"Extended range" is GM marketeer speak for plug-in hybrid.
The ICE gives extended range over the electric only (plug-in) range.

This is a lot more complicated than it needs to be, but that is the marketers job, I suppose.

Aug 21 05:14 PM

[User 475008:]

I've worked with Toyota and met their engineers. If it doesn't seem like reliable technology - they won't produce the vehicle. It's just that plain and simple. Toyota doesn't want to simply manufacture the "flavor of the week" car. Their focus is on reliability, sustainability, fuel economy, safety, etc. There main goal is to see the vehicles they produce today and years later still on the road. Have you seen how long people own their Carollas, Camrys, or Tacomas? Years! Unlike American cars, which break down and are virtually money-pits after the warranty expires, Toyotas keep working. Sure, some people have had bad experiences driving a Toyota, but you can hear that from every car manufacturer. Trust me, I was in the business for a long time! Car manufacturers are going to produce a bad car here-and-there. It's inevitable, except Toyota simply makes less mistakes than their competitors. (even NASA - arguably having some of the world's best engineers and scientists - produce rockets that blow-up during launch). Besides, Toyota has been manufacturing test models of hybrid vehicles since the late 70's. They've also been working on EV's and hydrogen vehicles also. When they do finally produce another EV and begin rolling out their hydrogen models, you can be sure it'll be the best damn product on the road; not just at that moment, but for years to come.

Aug 21 05:52 PM

[TinyTim:]

User475008-

I second that.
The engineering complexity of a Prius is so great that I would only rely on Toyota engineers to make it work.
I'm still waiting to see if they've lived up to their rep for longevity with that car.
One advantage of a serial hybrid like the Volt is the comparative engineering simplicity of that drive train.

Another thing that Toyota excels at: I understand they're bringing out a hybrid Yaris / Vitz at the same price as the base model.
If it has a Prius drivetrain, this is quite a feat.

Aug 21 07:43 PM

[Stephen Met...:]

"Others find that argument a little disingenuous and more than a little semantic: unless a driver is willing to limit herself to the Volt's 40-mile electric-only range, she's going to have to use gas to get around." She? Use of the third person feminine form is bad grammar, although oh, so PC. She will still be ensconced in her SUV, while he will be the forefront of early adapters.

Aug 22 09:30 AM

[pftittl:]

The future is in diesel hybrids.

Hydrogen fuel cell cars make NO sense from a science standpoint.

It should tell you something that our brilliant ex-president thought that was the answer.

Aug 22 10:45 AM

[Road Runner:]

Thanks User475008 and TinyTim for setting people straight on Toyota. Their focus on quality vs. expedience is why they are the top dog car maker in the world. People expect perfection in a vehicle, much more than meeting a fad.

Toyota is making the smart move by waiting and perfecting. The electric drive chain vehicle is going through a very fast evolution right now. All these cars we talked about in the post will be obsolete dinosaurs in 5 years. Toyota can easily leapfrog into the top position in a few years by slowly perfecting their vehicles now.

Aug 22 01:53 PM

[Jimbo:]

I realize the topic is EV but while we are considering alternatives, lets look at Natural Gas. Cheaper than gasoline(but not as good mileage), capable of being converted to conventional gasoline engines, plentiful supply, and proven reliability(in Europe). Natgas is also lower in pollution than other liquid fuels. If we have a mass conversion to EV, the grid may crash and we are still dependent on coal for a substantial amount of electricity. Honda also has a natgas car now.

Aug 22 02:24 PM

[Traveler 1:]

Jeff B.
You don't have a clue what you are talking about.

Look at "user #475008 coments which are right on" so I don't have to repeat them. Toyota is the current world leader which they deserve. It is and will continue to be. I have owned their autos for 35 years and they have been great and relialble and very fuel efficient. The company has always been at the forfront with their R&D and that is their strength. I have a Prius that I wouldn't give up for any other car on the road. Show me another one that gets 48-50 MPG at 70mph and has a lifetime engine/drivetrain warrantee and has never been in the shop for a problem. Oh ! and I own many shares of both TM and HMC. So I put my money where my mouth is "how about you"??


On Aug 21 10:25 AM Jeff B. wrote:

> Toyota is only considered the Green Vehicle leader by folks who don't
> really know cars. Honda is way ahead on this front. The Clarity FCX
> is already the 3rd gen fuel cell vehicle Honda has on US roads. The
> Prius is a nice hybrid, but it has zero appeal to anyone who actually
> enjoys driving. The Volt is yet another case of GM over-promising
> and under-delivering. I woudln't put my money on that. The real question
> is how we will get electricity to these vehicles, and when will the
> entrenched US energy industry (oil & gas) be forced to deal with
> reality?

Aug 22 04:39 PM

[sethmcs:]

Am I the only person that wants a 6,000 lbs car with 427 cu in V8 that runs on leaded gasoline? Electric vehicle never. Down with Gore and green peace bring back leaded gasoline, freon and mercury teeth.

Aug 22 06:30 PM

[jse17:]

As far as GM and cutting edge technology, just trust me…leap of faith, “It will be different this time!”

Aug 22 07:14 PM

[Gandalph:]

Will this inane debate never end ? The efficiency of a power plant - coal, oil, or nuclear is about 40%; the efficiency of the grid is estimated at 92%; the efficiency of charging a Li-Ion battery is no more than 85% (They get hot!); the efficiency of an electric motor is about 85%(They also get hot); call the AC to DC converters 85% (?). Overall (product of the above): 22.5%. Compare with modern clean diesel: ~48%. If you live where you get cheap subsidized electricity, you have the illusion of economical operation. We (the society) collectively pay the bill. And if electric cars become a significant component of fleet, the entire electric grid and all of the related infrastructure must be replaced at a cost beyond our broken economy, for decades. It looks like "oil" made from algae is going to work, making this debate irrelevant. We have the infrastructure to run on Algae now; no modifications required.

Aug 24 12:06 AM