Michigan Confidence Hits 6-Year High

by: Bespoke Investment Group

The final reading of Michigan Confidence for July was released this morning, and it came in at 85.1. This is the highest reading seen for the sentiment indicator since July 2007. Keep in mind, however, that even though Michigan Confidence is at a six-year high, it's still well below the average levels seen for years in the 90s and early 2000s. As shown in the chart below comparing Michigan Confidence to the S&P 500, even though the stock market is at new all-time highs, the consumer has been slow to gain back confidence in the economy.

One other thing to note in the chart below is how well Michigan Confidence predicted the start of the last bear market. As shown, Michigan Confidence began tanking months before the stock market peaked in October 2007. In that regards, it's a good sign that the reading continues to tick higher.