Federal Reserve: Exit Watch

There is great concern about the “Exit Strategy” the Federal Reserve might follow to reduce its balance sheet back to the levels that existed before the “Big Explosion” in the Fall of 2008. I plan to keep an eye on the Fed’s balance sheet over the next 12 months or so to try and keep abreast of what the Fed is doing to return to a more normal operating procedure. I discussed the prospects for a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet in three posts on June 25, June 29, and July 2. This is just a checkup to see how things have progressed.

Over the past 13 weeks (a calendar quarter) from May 20, 2009 to August 19, 2009, the Federal Reserve allowed the total factors supplying reserve funds to decline by $128 billion. This helped to account for the major part in the decline of Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks which fell by $146 billion. These are the deposits commercial banks maintain at the central bank. Other factors absorbing reserves accounted for the small difference ($18 billion) between these two figures.

The crucial contributors to this decline were all the new programs that the Federal Reserve had instituted going back to December 2007, when the first innovations were introduced to relieve the liquidity crisis that was occurring in both the United States and in financial institutions all over the world. For example the amount of funds outstanding connected with the Term Auction Facility (TAF) declined by $208 billion in the May 20 to August 19 quarter. This account reached a peak amount of $493 billion in early March 2009. Currently it stands at $221 billion. This innovation was put into place to get reserves to the banks that needed them as quickly as possible. It looks as if this facility is winding down as the financial markets seem to be operating in a more normal fashion.

Another innovative response to the crisis was the Central Bank liquidity swaps in which the Federal Reserve was able to get dollars out to the rest of the world so as to avoid the problems of resolving pressures that were being felt around the world in converting financial assets into dollars. Over the past 13 weeks, the accounts related to foreign central banks and currency holdings dropped by $166 billion, another massive movement. These accounts had gotten up to around $390 billion in February of this year and on Wednesday August 19 totaled around $70 billion: another facility that seems to be winding down.

Another line item that seems to be going out of business is the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. This account dropped by $103 billion in the last quarter. This facility supported the commercial paper market and its dealers.

So, these three line items, created under the pressure of the financial crisis beginning in December 2007, have accounted for a reduction of about $477 billion of assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in the last 13 weeks. And, the declines were still continuing in the past four weeks, so the runoff has not stopped. The figures here show that the TAF declined about $17 billion in the last 4 weeks while the Commercial Paper Funding Facility dropped $56 billion and the Central Bank facility dropped about $29 billion during the same period.

The Total Factors Supplying Reserves only fell by $128 billion, so what has changed?

Well, the Federal Reserve is conducting open market operations again, seemingly to keep longer term interest rates from rising and to provide liquidity support to the mortgage backed securities markets. Securities held outright by the Federal Reserve rose $366 billion in the 13 weeks ending August 19! The biggest increase came in the Fed’s holdings of Mortgage Backed Securities, an increase that totaled $178 billion. The Fed also added $153 billion to its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and $35 billion to its holdings of Federal Agency securities.

Over the last four weeks the Fed increased its holdings of Mortgage Backed securities by $64 billion, its holdings of U.S. Treasurys by $43 billion and its holdings of Federal Agency securities by $9 billion.

The bottom line is that the Federal Reserve is allowing the special facilities created during the height of the financial crisis to run off but is substituting purchases of open market securities to keep bank reserves at high levels. Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks stood at $805 billion on Wednesday August 19, the vast majority of the reserves being just “Excess Reserves” in the banking system.

The philosophy behind this? The Federal Reserve is “exiting” the special facilities it has created to get the financial system through the crisis. However, it cannot “exit” the banking system by allowing those reserves to leave the banks.

An error was made in 1937. Commercial banks were maintaining large amounts of excess reserves at that time. As at the present time, banks were attempting to get their balance sheets in order, were not lending, and were trying to work off bad loans. The Federal Reserve, seeing all of the excess reserves, RAISED reserve requirements. This resulted in another collapse of the banking system, a collapse in the money stock, and a second period of economic disaster for the U.S. economy to follow the 1929-1933 depression.

The Federal Reserve does not want to create another crisis as it did in the 1937-1938 period. My guess is that the Fed will continue to support the large quantity of excess reserves that exists within the banking system until the commercial banks start lending again.

Thus, it appears that the concern about an “exit” strategy is not going to be about the shrinking of all the innovative lending facilities that the Fed created to combat the liquidity crisis of the recent financial collapse. It appears as if the Fed is going to substitute open market operations to replace the decline in reserves resulting from the working off of these facilities in order to maintain the high level of excess reserves that currently exist in the banking system. Therefore, the concern about “exit” strategy is going to be connected with the removal of bank reserves from the banking system when the commercial banks begin lending again.

It is going to be interesting to see how the Fed will reduce its securities portfolio by $700 to $800 billion at that time.

Comments

[markfl:]

"An error was made in 1937. Commercial banks were maintaining large amounts of excess reserves at that time. As at the present time, banks were attempting to get their balance sheets in order, were not lending, and were trying to work off bad loans."

Some of the fears of a "W" in the economy shared by SA contributors and commentors, including me, stem from the fact that all the liquidity is not translating into credit availability to the degree that would be required for expansion (particularly in small business for example).

In an article from a few days ago seekingalpha.com/artic... , the author quoted a Fed report that said, "The Fed asked the banks when they thought their policies would get back in line with their long-term trend. For commercial and industrial loans to businesses, just 13% said conditions would return to normal by the middle of 2010, with another 36% saying it would be in late 2010."

Aug 21 03:20 PM

[Living4Divi...:]

Because you are a Fed follower - answer me this

How much money has the Fed printed since the crisis began? Would this be equal to the Fed's balance sheet?

No one can seem to answer this question.

Aug 21 04:35 PM

[Kinabalu:]

"Therefore, the concern about “exit” strategy is going to be connected with the removal of bank reserves from the banking system when the commercial banks begin lending again."

That's when the issue of monetizing the debt and all its inflationary consequences becomes real. How do you keep the recovery going and extract bank reserves at the same time? Good luck, Ben.

Aug 21 09:07 PM

[Leftfield:]

With crap accounting, crap assets, crap balance sheets and crap currency, with many defaults and bankruptcies about to hit, known and unknown, with banks taking taxpayer money and raising rates to 30%, what is the solid footing a business might see to build upon?
There are new games of musical chairs being played, but it seems like they work best on the upper decks of the Titanic that aren't flooded yet, although the pitch of the decks is getting bothersome.
There are government sponsored games to be played to increase "animal spirits" like the stock market action since March. But, what is real? Does it matter? I think it will.

Aug 22 09:40 AM

[Lilguy:]

Mr. Mason--This is an excellent article and an ambitious and important course of action you have laid out for yourself. And, of course, the Fed and its monetary policy are critical drivers of the US economy.

So, too, however, are the actions actions of the USG in fiscal policy. Just last night we heard that the US deficit will grow by more than $2 trillion more over the next 10 years than previously forecast by the Administration ("oops! excuse me!")...and stay tuned for more of those kinds of announcements in the months ahead. Meantime, the health care plan and fresh calls for additional stimulus spending (to get the 10 million unemployed back to work) are likely to drive budget deficits higher.

So the core economic question becomes how does the US finance its growing national debt? What should we look for in the volume and mix of Treasuries sold that points us to future debt levels and perceived economic prospects? How will potential buyers of Treasuries react to the increased volume, and will they buy long (confidence) or short (lack thereof)--foreign and domestic, including the Fed? How much will the dollar react in forex markets to the increasing volume of Treasuries--and will US growth offset the negative effects of greater volume?

All unanswerable questions I suspect. But I hope someone out there--and you may be as good as anyone--will track these developments and provide insights into their economic implications for our far over-stretched economy.

Aug 22 10:54 AM

[Lilguy:]

...and I should have added: How will the Treasury's national debt financing contribute to inflation in ways that the Fed will have to offset--a potential conflict between monetary and fiscal policy?


On Aug 22 10:54 AM Lilguy wrote:

> Mr. Mason--This is an excellent article and an ambitious and important course of action.....

Aug 22 10:58 AM

[Ray Lopez:]

Double. They (the Fed) have doubled their books by printing money, since December 2007.

Also see this:

tinyurl.com/pdljc9

raylopez99.blogspot.com/

Click on the first link for a graphic that shows uncertainty over TARP was the cause-in-fact of the equities crash of October 2008. This link is from the second link above.

A picture is worth a thousand words.

This figure is from John Taylor's paper on the crash, Critical Review:
A Journal of Politics and Society, Vol. 21, Nos. 2-3, 2009 Economic
Policy and the Financial Crisis: An Emperical Analysis of What Went Wrong – John B. Taylor


On Aug 21 04:35 PM Living4Dividends wrote:

> Because you are a Fed follower - answer me this
>
> How much money has the Fed printed since the crisis began? Would
> this be equal to the Fed's balance sheet?
>
> No one can seem to answer this question.

Aug 22 06:06 PM