Spike in Mass Layoff Events 21 comments
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In a dramatic reversal to the moderating trend from the past several months, Mass Layoff Events surged from 256,357 in June to a whopping 336,654 in July, a 31% increase, and surprisingly the second highest reading for the year since January's 388 thousand. Actual MLE increased by 21% from 2,519 to 3,054. The primary weakness was focused in the manufacturing sector, where claims jumped from 85 thousand to 154 thousand, an 81% increase.
As a reminder, the BLS defines a Mass Layoff Event as one that occurs when an establishment has at least 50 initial unemployment compensation claims filed against it within a five-week period and the layoff lasts longer than 30 days.
Another indication that purported recovery in unemployment is here to stay (click on charts to enlarge).
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This article has 21 comments:
"People running out of economic hope is where our real danger lies."
Lack of hope is not the problem. $600 Trillion dollars in shadowed Derivatives valued at about 10 cents on the dollar is a real danger. Unemployment is around 20+ percent and people not working in a consumer driven economy is a real danger. A government running up a QE debt in the trillions per year is extremely dangerous and stupid.
I am slowly moving into the camp that the entire system is unfixable and the real danger is not financial for our country, but strategic. America is responsible for this mess and even though we have the finest armed forces in the world, we simply cannot defeat the whole world militarily. My fear is not for my dollars (especially since I am short as hell everything and I own gold), but that the rest of the world decides to come together and dictate terms to america. You do remember the recent BRIC meeting where the US was NOT invited?
I lost all hope for our economy when Bear Stearns died. I was making money before and I am making money now, but I am not enjoying it a damned bit. Watching my country crash slowly, but surely is a terrible thing.
Hope?
Give it a decade, and we'll talk.
Thanks for the stats, Tyler. Your posts are required reading on my end. Kudos!
On Aug 21 03:43 PM Pat C wrote:
> Did you guys at ZeroHedge look at Federal Unemployment Extension
> Exhaustion trends too? (For the life of me I can't find these #'s
> in the DOL, BLS websites - any help would be greatly appreciated).
> People running out of economic hope is where our real danger lies.
On Aug 21 04:49 PM HunterGVL wrote:
> I am going to have to call you on that coment Pat C.
>
> "People running out of economic hope is where our real danger lies."
>
>
> Lack of hope is not the problem.
IT IS UNFIXABLE
That is something they of course don't want anyone realizing
As Denninger says, we are in a timeframe of "pretend and extend."
On Aug 21 04:49 PM HunterGVL wrote:
> I am going to have to call you on that coment Pat C.
>
> "People running out of economic hope is where our real danger lies."
>
>
> Lack of hope is not the problem. $600 Trillion dollars in shadowed
> Derivatives valued at about 10 cents on the dollar is a real danger.
> Unemployment is around 20+ percent and people not working in a consumer
> driven economy is a real danger. A government running up a QE debt
> in the trillions per year is extremely dangerous and stupid.
>
> I am slowly moving into the camp that the entire system is unfixable
> and the real danger is not financial for our country, but strategic.
> America is responsible for this mess and even though we have the
> finest armed forces in the world, we simply cannot defeat the whole
> world militarily. My fear is not for my dollars (especially since
> I am short as hell everything and I own gold), but that the rest
> of the world decides to come together and dictate terms to america.
> You do remember the recent BRIC meeting where the US was NOT invited?
>
>
> I lost all hope for our economy when Bear Stearns died. I was making
> money before and I am making money now, but I am not enjoying it
> a damned bit. Watching my country crash slowly, but surely is a terrible
> thing.
>
> Hope?
> Give it a decade, and we'll talk.
>
> Thanks for the stats, Tyler. Your posts are required reading on my
> end. Kudos!
On Aug 21 07:30 PM Dialectical Materialist wrote:
> I'm not sure your two are that far off (though your list was convincing
> if anyone needed evidence of the troubles we face). I think what
> Pat was driving at was that when people run out of even the small
> amount of money that they get from unemployment and they have little
> prospect for finding work (hence they lose "economic hope") then
> there is real danger to our society. And I think I agree. Certainly
> your list of dangers is compelling too and obviously they are all
> related... but the idea that we will have growing millions of people
> with no job and no income is alarming. Desparate people act desparately
> and the impact on our country might be severe.
Small town USA is dying.
Meanwhile the stimulus package is supposedly plowing trillions of dollar back into the economy, very little has been spent and in our dealings with state and local government they are all firing and cutting back existing roles and cutting salaries.
"You do remember the recent BRIC meeting where the US was NOT invited?"
On Aug 22 07:47 PM Genesis wrote:
> If Joe, Bob, and Sue had a meeting and they called it the Joe-Bob-Sue
> Meeting, George should probably count it a privilege if he got to
> sit in on it. That's just my first impression anyway.
>
> "You do remember the recent BRIC meeting where the US was NOT invited?"
Highly interesting Comments (Holy Cow)!
Jobless Recovery with plenty of unintended consequences. The summation of article and comments.
“Set the Controls for the Heart of the Sun” is likely poor Political-Economy.
Causation is in clearly within the theory of Counterfactual.
The real economy is dead.
Eventually the Wall St economy will follow.
The death of a once great nation is nigh, pull up a chair and watch the fun!
Just run and hide before the food riots start.
Banks are hoarding cash to either repair their own balance sheer or to pump up the equitities and commodities markets. Can we say double-digit headline unemployment rate and hyperinflation any faster?
Exactly, and there's "no worry" about getting the money back, if you will be given some other reward from the "ministry of change" for being a good dog.
On Aug 24 08:53 PM Jade Queen wrote:
> [...] the dealers put out money they
> are worried about getting back. Add to that, they know demand may
> to diminished now for quite a while, and you can see that favored,
> well capitalized dealers may make it out, [...]
1. There has been no wage inflation in this country for over a decade. Clearly, this is because of jobs going to China and India. When you're at the top of the world's pay scale, globalization only hurts your workers' wages.
2. Over this decade of zero wage inflation, a lot of companies grew earnings nicely. Walmart's income for example is about 3x what it was in the 90's.
3. Companies are using cost cutting, which is usually layoffs, to protect earnings as they can't grow the top line.
So here's a radical idea. Since companies have no interest in creating American jobs, let's put the entire tax burden on them. End the federal income tax on individuals today. This would create a huge spending boom, as everyone with a job would get a giant raise. Companies would get a huge tax raise, but who cares? They have no interest in creating jobs anyway, and this would be offset by the surge in spending based on a consumer population getting a big raise.