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By Brandon Matthews

As the week begins, we at Satwaves are looking forward to reporting from Sirius XM Radio’s (SIRI) holiday hardware and accessory event this Wednesday, August 26, 2009. Already the excitement is being felt around the world as news of a new dock that will convert nearly 40 million Apple (AAPL) iPhone and iPod devices into fully functioning satellite radios begins to radiate throughout the world wide web. Although the stock of Sirius XM Radio has been on a tear recently, which has investors giddy over their above average gains, the real winner is the satellite radio consumer.

Investors and analysts alike tend to focus on certain numbers with a tunnel-vision type of mentality. As an example, let us assume that the acceptance rate of those people that are first exposed to Sirius or XM through a promotional subscription stands at 50%. Investors and analysts are all too happy to completely discount the 50% that decided against the service and focus on the 50% that subscribed to either service. This is due to the fact that the revenue is, of course, generated by the subscriber rather than the non subscriber.

Sirius XM seems to have instead decided to focus on the potential consumer that did not opt for service, as it is this segment of the market that provides the feedback necessary to guide the relatively young company on improving the product in such a way as to increase the acceptance rate in the future. Most investors are aware that higher OEM penetration rates can help to offset slowdowns in new car and truck sales. Likewise, a higher acceptance rate can do the same.

In the beginning, satellite radio was a product that made its mark predominantly in cars. The focus was content exclusivity. Unfortunately, many potential subscribers do not spend enough time in a car on a daily basis to justify the expense of a satellite radio subscription, even at under .50 a day. Separate home audio and portable units made their way into the market, but in most cases the cost of hardware was too expensive for both the consumer and company itself to justify any cost of promotion.

With online offerings, Sirius and XM succeeded in adding value to the subscriber experience by allowing subscribers to listen to their favorite music, news or entertainment stream while sitting at their computers. This meant that people could now listen to Sirius XM while at work and not just in their car on the way to the office. Recently, the company began offering an app through Apple’s iTunes store, which enables subscribers to listen on the go, and the new dock for Apple devices provides a means for potential subscribers to add the satellite radio function to any car or boat at a minimal hardware cost.

New plans provide for a la carte offerings also, which means lower priced consumer options are available. All of these moves should begin to pay dividends in the subscriber acquisition rates as 2010 and a yet uncertain future economic climate loom. Investors will always have ups and downs to endure, but for the satellite radio consumer, the experience just keeps getting better. Sirius XM continues to add value by continually offering more listening options to both its subscribers, and potential consumers.

Position: Long SIRI

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  •  
    I'm happy with my recent investment in SIRI. As for the service, however, I'd once again be a subscriber if the company brought back a jazz fusion channel. Any other music in which I might be interested I have access to on terrestrial radio. So, no fusion, no subscription.
    Aug 24 10:44 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It's all about content and delivery and Sirius XM far exceeds all other alternate streams of audio platforms via SIRI's unique blend of music, commentary, sports, comedy, and news - domestic, business, and international. There simply is no competition to satellite radio when one considers the unbroken and superior audio that is available across the country. Try that with any domestic terrestrial station and you will soon find the area of reception is extremely limited, and usually extremely poor in quality. SIRI's subscriber base is sure to rise with the replacement and upgrade of the ageing U.S. auto fleet and this is now being leveraged to all other platforms of delivery in a wireless age. Once a Sirius XM subscriber, always a subscriber - as the superior and unique content simply cannot be found in one convenient platform anywhere else. It is clear that institutions are now recognizing this vast potential and are making investment decisions accordingly.
    Aug 24 10:58 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    mkat33 is my hero. I thought I was the only one who's upset over this hole in their programming. I understand that my musical tastes are not the same as everyone else's, but I don't understand the need for three channels of electronic beats with no room for modern jazz. Not to mention the awful sound quality - they promote "digital transmission" and the sheople think it must be better. I am still on board for Stern, but when he goes there's nothing else there for me that I can't get elsewhere.
    Aug 24 10:59 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    An article a while back talked about adding some strategically placed billboards. I think it would be well worth the money. I would do it differently however, and target drivers with Sat Radio in their cars already. Have a Howard Stern (or some other personality...perhaps even Opra) billboard, but have the activiation number as the primary message. something like..."Howard is waiting for your call...simple call 111-222-3333 and you could be listening to Howard in 2 minutes instead of reading this billboard.
    Aug 24 11:05 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Hey FunkyD. Thanks for your support.

    What really gets me is that Sirius had 70+ music channels and XM had 70+ music channels. Now, after the merger, there are only 63 music channels, less than either company had individually. That just doesn't make sense to me.


    On Aug 24 10:59 AM FunkyD wrote:

    > mkat33 is my hero. I thought I was the only one who's upset over
    > this hole in their programming. I understand that my musical tastes
    > are not the same as everyone else's, but I don't understand the need
    > for three channels of electronic beats with no room for modern jazz.
    > Not to mention the awful sound quality - they promote "digital transmission"
    > and the sheople think it must be better. I am still on board for
    > Stern, but when he goes there's nothing else there for me that I
    > can't get elsewhere.
    Aug 24 11:27 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Charles Schwab just upgraded SIRI to Outperform. Why are these upgrades not hitting the press releases or company headlines?
    Aug 24 11:29 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Hey Semprarectum...what kind of comment is that anyway? First of all, I'm neither a fan or enemy of Brandon or any other writer. I really don't spend enough time reading these posts...

    However, after reading this article and then reading your hateful outburst including a POS reference, i would have to say that you're quite the moron.

    Brandon's headline comments on Sirius just getting better and better for customers. I was an XM 5 or 6 years ago and i've now been a Sirius sub for about the last three years. Not only has Sirius expanded the number of channels and unique content offerings, but now you're able to listen online, on your iphone and soon use your iphone as a satellite receiver, getting even more stations. It's a little more expensive, but there are far more options and a much better entertainment level now than 3-5 years ago.

    My guess is you are upset about a couple of things...first, you were a subscriber and they either took away a favorite channel of yours or raised the rates and for one or both of these reasons you're a little upset...boo hoo. For all that cry over a buck or two increase, go get a part-time job a McDonald's to cover it...it's still the best bargain around.

    Secondly, you probably purchased gobs of Sirius stock 3 or 4 years ago and you're still ions away from breaking even and you were so pissed at Sirius that you didn't buy any over the last year.

    Bottom line, if you have a difference of opinion, that's fine. Voice it...but don't say a writer is a liar and call him a Piece of Shite just because you don't agree...for that you're the biggest loser here. Happy Monday to you Mr. my opinion is KING! Haha...
    Aug 24 12:16 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I have to agree as a long time XM subscriber, the merger has been great as far as the service. I know there will always be a few that will say it was bad due to their favorite chanel being cut. However, there was just way too much duplication to keep all the chanels from both services. If enough people complain and show that there is a large number of people for a certain type of music, it will be put on. I am a huge hip hop fan and when they merged stations they cut "backspin"an old school rap chanel, after complaints the chanel was put back on. Voice your opinion for different types of music, if there are enough of you they will be happy to add it. I was happy as an xm subscriber to now have FOXXHOLE, Shade45, Deepok Chopra on Saturdays,the option to have nfl, Stern etc...I have also brought some customers to sirius xm as well. Those that I couldnt get to subscribe, loved the service but loved how cool the iphone touch looked compared to dock and play orportable units. Now, with the new sky dock coming soon, they will get those customers too.
    Aug 24 12:27 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Because all the media has been told not to mention anything positive about this stock for some reason.


    On Aug 24 11:29 AM connorport wrote:

    > Charles Schwab just upgraded SIRI to Outperform. Why are these upgrades
    > not hitting the press releases or company headlines?
    Aug 24 12:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Lets see if we can keep a foot hold near .70. If we hold here for a bit we will test a new high. Remember, pullback is ok. The next time the stock runs for days i will predict a pullback and write an article bashing the current price. I bet im spot on. any takers?
    Aug 24 03:29 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    siri doom is an idoit
    Aug 24 05:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Ron- I'll take it alittle further...Semprarectum... are a freaking idiot! I have tangled with Brandon on numerous times...Today is not one of them...There is nothing in this article that can be even construed as being a lie or half truth! As for the title...Your F...in idiot...Seeking Alpha changes the title for there own agenda...Brandons original title is The Consumer is the Real Satellite Winner! As a consumer...all of the new ways to access satellite radio is a win for the consumer and for the company! What a DH!
    Aug 24 05:46 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Notice how many thumbs down checked for your rant. What are you, 5 or something. Get a life

    The blogs are for more sophisticated consumers, not cry babies.

    Mr. Stupid


    On Aug 24 10:51 AM Semprasectum wrote:

    > Another pumper full of half truths and lies, by Brandon "can't use
    > my real name because I'm a grifter" Matthews.
    >
    > You are like the boy who cried wolf. . . .someday you will post a
    > truthful article an no one will believe you. You are nothing short
    > of a congenital liar.
    >
    > SiriusXM and is pps will endure, but you are a POS.
    Aug 24 06:51 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I bought my shares of siri when it was .25 - should have doubled up when it hit .17. Smiling today.
    Aug 24 07:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    In anticipation of the new products and services, a couple of things that would be a HOME RUN for SIRIUS XM and APPLE. On my portable XMP3, I have the ability to "record" or save songs i hear and schedule programs to recored that I want to listen to later. If Sirius XM and APPLE can agree to let iphone/ipod touch have this capability it will draw millions of subscribers and sales of the skydock for home and car. People will have their talk shows, music and all saved on thier device for as long as they are subscribers. Apple would be competing with Zunes' pass service which for a monthly fee of $14.99 you get unlimited downloads to your device. With the SIRIUS XM APP, you could just "record" the songs that are played on your favorite station or schedule recording of special programming. You could also record your favorite talkshows,etc..I guess it is similar to podcasts but a lot less effort and you get premium content..I feel this would make the app and the ipod/iphone a must have device. Even younger teenagers or young adults would love to be able to save popular dj mixes to listen to on the go instead of illegeally downloading the songs. As a Hip Hop lover I know I hear songs before most "kids" can go and download it I have it saved on my XMP3, They always have popular artists come and debut "exclusive" songs off their new albums..
    I am sure the technology is there to make this possible, the question is would Apple go for it, due to them selling mp3s on itunes? Sirius XM went through the courts to have their devices have the ability to record songs and they pay a fee to record labels. Would that extend to iphones and ipods? If so, then apple i'm sure would want to be compensated as well because they would lose mp3 sales, but possibly gain device sales or at least get a percentage of iphone app profits. Maybe have xm pay an agreed upon percentage of profits made from apple products?.....I can't imagine how popular this device would be with this capability, even the ipod touch can always have the ability to have new fresh content "on the go" schedule your recordings attach to home dock...take it and go!!!Hmmmm...just a thought that would be big...Is something like that was announced and promoted...this is a $5.00 stock in a month....Then, compare SIRIUS XM costs to the Zunespass, Rhapsody, or any other pay service. Even compare it to the "free" Pandora and although it costs more, the utility of it is 1000% better. You won't be stuck to needing a wi-fi or 3g network to get "fresh" content..
    Aug 25 12:48 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Those interest rates and of course fuel prices will be the only factor in keeping it away from 14000. Noone can predict the price of oil and it drives straight into the consumers pockets in every aspect of American life. But when oil prices creep too high the consumer tells it when its overpriced by slowing the economy. It is true that the housing bubble was the key factor if this recession but allowing oil futures to be bought without delivery was the match that light the fuse.


    On Aug 25 11:46 AM MIT economics wrote:

    > MIT is one of the most prestigious universities in the wold; an institution
    > that emphasizes academic rigor based on empiric evidence. Objective
    > economic analysis and sociology are not mutually inclusive.
    >
    > According to my findings, there may be no force on this planet that
    > can stop this bull market. DJIA 14,000 within a few years is a strong
    > possibility. Keep in mind that interest rates are STILL at zero and
    > the fed has given absolutely NO hint of raising them. We're going
    > to have yet another housing & stock market bubble as a result,
    > and no effort will be made to stop it even as it unfolds before our
    > very eyes.
    >
    > good articles 4 slow news day: www.iamned.com
    >
    > The US dollar is nothing more than toilet paper to the fed. That's
    > why I am recommending MA POT GOOG which benefit from a falling dollar.
    >
    >
    > We were promised in 2008 that the mistakes Greenspan made would not
    > be repeated. We were told there would be more regulation on Wall
    > Street with regards to compensation and financial instruments. We
    > were lied to. www.iamned.com
    Aug 25 02:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  

    Most or the main stream investors (other than insiders) are avoiding SIRI like a disease. Most will NOT touch SIRI until the Rev-Split is over or off the table. So, SIRI will not go over 1.00 and will need the Rev Split to keep its NasD listing. Mel wants this split. Do not expect Mel to do anything correctly until after he gets his Rev-Split.

    On Aug 24 11:29 AM connorport wrote:

    > Charles Schwab just upgraded SIRI to Outperform. Why are these upgrades
    > not hitting the press releases or company headlines?
    Aug 25 03:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Wall Street and Main Media have been burned and given up on SIRI.
    Aug 25 03:09 PM | Link | Reply
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