Comparing Today's Bank Crisis to the Past 39 comments
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Even when adjusted for inflation and population growth, the 2008-09 banking crisis far exceeds previous banking crises, including even the Great Depression. There were 10,000 bank failures in the Great Depression, but few of them had branches.
Today, a medium sized bank usually has hundreds of branches and the two big failures, Washington Mutual and Wachovia Bank had more than 8,000 branches between them.
Thus, the number of actual bank locations affected in the current crisis, which is not over, is similar to the entire period of the Great Depression from 1929 to 1941.
When it comes to the amount of money involved, the current crisis has 70 times the asset dollars in failed banks compared to the Great Depression. Even when the figures are adjusted for inflation and population growth, the current crisis is still much larger in dollar terms.
An article at TheStreet.com entitled "Banking Crisis Dwarfs the Great Depression" gives the analysis details (here). The conclusion of that article states:
How does this bank crisis compare historically? There is no comparison.
This conclusion can also be seen in the analysis of the magnitude of assets involved in past crises to the GDP values at the time. This is shown in the following table:
The relationship of the current banking crisis to the size of the economy is more than seven times greater than the worst year of the Great Depression (1933). This crisis is 19 times larger with respect to GDP than the next worst year, 1989, in the S&L crisis.
These are astounding relationships. We have been and still are in unchartered territory. The Great Depression may not be repeated, but, in some ways, we have exceeded it to the downside. The ability of the U.S.and the world economy to withstand such a shock amazes me.
Now we have to see how the aftershocks and the financial system structure weakened by the "big one" interact in the coming years. I did not say months; it will take years to repair the effects of an event of this seismic magnitude.
Be prepared for the unexpected. We have never gone this way before.
Read the rest of the analysis in TheStreet.com article here.
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This article has 39 comments:
I remember the author saying he held a position in one of the short financial ETFs (SKF?). Is this still the case? I admire your "conviction" in the face of recent performance of some long ETFs.
This current Great Contraction is really a Great Compression of the Middle class: it is far more unequal in the distribution of pain than the Great Depression.
Then ,we were one Nation; now we are manifestly three: the Upper Class, for whom the Great Contraction is far more an opportunity than a threat because the current accelerating centralization is also accelerating transfer of wealth and power to the tiny Upper Class; for them the Great Contraction is the Great Opportunity.
For the Middle Class, the Great Contraction is also the Great Suppression as it is squeezed financially, socially and politically by the Governing elites from above and the parasitic and grasping Lower Class from below.
For the Lower Class the Great Contraction is the Great Expansion in size, dependence on the elites for the coerced income transfers from the Middle Class that constitute the bulk of their cash flows and power to intimidate and bully the Middle Class
2. The qualitative changes brought about by the Great Depression far exceeded in strategic importance and durability the quantitative changes. They changed core national assumptions and profoundly altered the structure of political, social, family and economic relationships.They propelled America to unprecedented global success but they also contained the seeds of corrossive elitism, abnegation of individual responsiblity, corrupt materialism and multiple social pathologies.
The substantial and tangible good they created is now almost gone; the insidious and invisible evil they created has persisted . In the form of Big Government, Big Money and Big Media this evil is metastasizing thru the polity and the culture of America.
Similarly, in my opinion, the qualitative reverberations of Great Contraction will far exceed in strategic impact the quatitative changes. There will be no "repairing" so the status quo can be restored.
There will be a great destroying or a great creating. America will surely be transformed, yet again; whether for the much better or the much worse, no one, in 2009 can credibly predict. The least likely outcome is marginal or transient fiddling at the edges. We are again at a cusp of somethng new and something strange.
By taking the path of the Japanese, we are ensuring this will be a very protracted financial crisis and it will be some time before the final tally is in. Moreover, current policies have masked the number of institutions and assets that are at the edge of failure; when these instituiotns fail, you may need to revise upwards the value of assets lost in the great recession.
J. Dillinger
I agree and it suggests that larger the act of denial the more intransigent and hard to abandon it becomes
This is all a smoke and mirrors game of chance and it is by no means over The idiots in the great deression at least had the common sense to get rid of this garbage and let the banks fail. Now we are mired in debt and still have all the same mess to deal with sooner or later.
This market is nothing but a FED blown bubble and cannot go on forever.
The difference today is that we have a Media that actively distracts people, or pushes good news in the face of bad reality.
Anyone notice all the A.P. headlines and other press releases over the past months? "Economy improving" or "Crisis Over" or "Recession coming to an End". Uh-huh, right. How about the active efforts in press releases to push the healthcare bill? Noticed those? "Myth's persist among most people about healthcare reform." or "Death Panel misconception still Persisting." etc., etc.
The message is "You don't know what you are talking about." or "Ignore the fact that you have less money, no job, depleted retirement, and that banks are failing left and right".
They are DESPERATE to prevent people holding cash and are pushing government spending and consumer spending, even if it creates another debt bubble.
Talk about kicking the can down the road...
watch the 2010 and 2012 elections carefully.
could it happen here?
> jack
Is there a mechanism that drives the expansion and contraction of credit. When the Middle Class identifies with the rich -- believing that they too can be rich -- the economy expands, the bubble inflates. When the Middle Class identifies with the poor -- believing that they too might be poor -- credit stops expanding, the bubble economy pops and contracts.
Ancient Hindu philosophy referred to the former, the expansion period, as a Day of Brahma; the contraction phase was called a Night of Brahma. The impetus was imagined as a great Breath that Inflated the world -- Day process, expansion of the bubble -- withdrawal of this Breath (the Breath of God) referred to the Night, the contraction, the return to the source.
Modern science is now coming to recognize that the construction of matter also reflects this construction. The worlds of matter and anti-matter stand to one another as the worlds of Day and Night, of construction and deconstruction, of expansion and construction. The Black Hole is the force of the in-breathing and the destruction of matter; the White Hole is the force of out-breathing and the creation or construction of matter.
The economy -- social history really -- works in line with this dualistic process. No Great Depression is the same -- but the principles that guide history is always the same.
You refer to the poor (lower classes) as grasping and parasitic. In fact, historically, it is the rich (ruling classes) that are grasping and parasitic. The poor are the ones who work for the rich, fight wars for the rich, while the rich abuse the poor and make slaves of the poor. It is by pressure from the Middle Class that this relationship changes. The Middle Class demands that the rich provide education for the poor, welfare, decent working conditions, decent wages and working hours. The Middle Class mediates between the rich and poor, in a desire to create a more ideal society.
The Middle Class, in fact, creates the world. When the Middle Class identifies with the rich they create the world of matter, of material expansion, of Republican rule. When the Middle Class identifies with the poor, they create the world of anti-matter, of material contraction, of Democratic rule.
Your portrayal of the poor as parasitic and grasping indicates on which side of the mirror you are living at the moment: on the matter side. From the perspective of the poor, the anti-matter side of the mirror, it is the rich who appear to be parasitic and grasping.
I know many people on this board are repelled by metaphoric thinking. Metaphor is a language that America no longer values -- and hasn't valued much in its recent history. But, during the Night of Brahma, metaphoric thinking is what helps a people find its way through the darkness. It's more like interpreting a dream. Science won't work; causality tells only a partial story.
On Aug 25 06:23 AM User 353732 wrote:
> 1. The Great Depression will not be repeated because nothing big
> occurs the same way twice in history, economic, social or cultural.
>
> This current Great Contraction is really a Great Compression of
> the Middle class: it is far more unequal in the distribution of pain
> than the Great Depression.
> Then ,we were one Nation; now we are manifestly three: the Upper
> Class, for whom the Great Contraction is far more an opportunity
> than a threat because the current accelerating centralization is
> also accelerating transfer of wealth and power to the tiny Upper
> Class; for them the Great Contraction is the Great Opportunity.<br/>
>
> For the Middle Class, the Great Contraction is also the Great Suppression
> as it is squeezed financially, socially and politically by the Governing
> elites from above and the parasitic and grasping Lower Class from
> below.
>
> For the Lower Class the Great Contraction is the Great Expansion
> in size, dependence on the elites for the coerced income transfers
> from the Middle Class that constitute the bulk of their cash flows
> and power to intimidate and bully the Middle Class
>
> 2. The qualitative changes brought about by the Great Depression
> far exceeded in strategic importance and durability the quantitative
> changes. They changed core national assumptions and profoundly altered
> the structure of political, social, family and economic relationships.They
> propelled America to unprecedented global success but they also contained
> the seeds of corrossive elitism, abnegation of individual responsiblity,
> corrupt materialism and multiple social pathologies.
> The substantial and tangible good they created is now almost gone;
> the insidious and invisible evil they created has persisted . In
> the form of Big Government, Big Money and Big Media this evil is
> metastasizing thru the polity and the culture of America.
>
> Similarly, in my opinion, the qualitative reverberations of Great
> Contraction will far exceed in strategic impact the quatitative changes.
> There will be no "repairing" so the status quo can be restored.
>
> There will be a great destroying or a great creating. America will
> surely be transformed, yet again; whether for the much better or
> the much worse, no one, in 2009 can credibly predict. The least likely
> outcome is marginal or transient fiddling at the edges. We are again
> at a cusp of somethng new and something strange.
I'm sure an extreme right force will also rise in America. We have a history of 'melting pot' in America. We don't see ourselves as a white race in our essence. But that can change. Hostility to immigrants can easily become hostility to any 'off-white' skin.
I think the next ten years are going to be very treacherous socially and politically in many places on the globe, including America, England, Europe, China, Thailand, Russia... I think investors who are in a hurry to send their money to emerging nations are not seeing the big picture of how depression twists cultures and nations into strange configurations, alliances, and acts of aggression.
On Aug 25 10:15 AM john s. gordon wrote:
> remember that the 1929-31 depression led directly to mr. hitler &
> mr. tojo. signor mussolini was already there.
> watch the 2010 and 2012 elections carefully.
> could it happen here?
Isn't denial the first stage of the death process. Denial; then anger; then bargaining...what comes next?
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Acceptance
5. Depression.
We are denying that we are in a depression now. Cheerleading of our leaders is a form of this depression. Reinflating is a part of this denial. Green shoots is an emblem of this denial.
Next stage will be anger. Very likely anger will be directed at the bears, at those negative elements in American society who are not getting on board for the big win. Political anger, of course, could flair into open warfare, street fights, etc. Civil war is possible. I expect civil war in Europe (religious in nature, vs. Islam).
Bargaining. Please tell me it isn't so. We are really losign our power. We are sinking into a world of chaos. We are losing control of the world.
Acceptance. Ok. So we are sinking. It will be alright. We will all be ok.
Depression. When we all agree we are in depression we will be close to the bottom. When the 'Housing Bottom' crowd agrees there is no bottom in sight and there may never be a bottom in sight; and when the 'green shoot' people all agree that Caterpiller is a raging short...then it may be just about time to put some long-term money back into the market.
On Aug 25 11:18 AM Michael Clark wrote:
> Excellent article, John. I don't see how anyone -- bull or bear
> -- could read this without swallowing very deeply and wondering if
> cheerleading by our leaders is really the appropriate behavior at
> this moment.
>
> Isn't denial the first stage of the death process. Denial; then
> anger; then bargaining...what comes next?
IT WILL FAR EXCEED IT!!
Be prepared for life to become very primitive, very local, very simple, very painful!
For those perpetual optimists, enjoy this brief reprieve. It won't last long. The fearful future and horror of the new, perpetual reality will strike when you least expect it.
A time of trouble is coming, such has not existed since the world began...
Better get right with God.
There are no alternatives.
On Aug 25 06:23 AM User 353732 wrote:
> 1. The Great Depression will not be repeated because nothing big
> occurs the same way twice in history, economic, social or cultural.
>
> This current Great Contraction is really a Great Compression of
> the Middle class: it is far more unequal in the distribution of pain
> than the Great Depression.
> Then ,we were one Nation; now we are manifestly three: the Upper
> Class, for whom the Great Contraction is far more an opportunity
> than a threat because the current accelerating centralization is
> also accelerating transfer of wealth and power to the tiny Upper
> Class; for them the Great Contraction is the Great Opportunity.<br/>
>
> For the Middle Class, the Great Contraction is also the Great Suppression
> as it is squeezed financially, socially and politically by the Governing
> elites from above and the parasitic and grasping Lower Class from
> below.
>
> For the Lower Class the Great Contraction is the Great Expansion
> in size, dependence on the elites for the coerced income transfers
> from the Middle Class that constitute the bulk of their cash flows
> and power to intimidate and bully the Middle Class
>
> 2. The qualitative changes brought about by the Great Depression
> far exceeded in strategic importance and durability the quantitative
> changes. They changed core national assumptions and profoundly altered
> the structure of political, social, family and economic relationships.They
> propelled America to unprecedented global success but they also contained
> the seeds of corrossive elitism, abnegation of individual responsiblity,
> corrupt materialism and multiple social pathologies.
> The substantial and tangible good they created is now almost gone;
> the insidious and invisible evil they created has persisted . In
> the form of Big Government, Big Money and Big Media this evil is
> metastasizing thru the polity and the culture of America.
>
> Similarly, in my opinion, the qualitative reverberations of Great
> Contraction will far exceed in strategic impact the quatitative changes.
> There will be no "repairing" so the status quo can be restored.
>
> There will be a great destroying or a great creating. America will
> surely be transformed, yet again; whether for the much better or
> the much worse, no one, in 2009 can credibly predict. The least likely
> outcome is marginal or transient fiddling at the edges. We are again
> at a cusp of somethng new and something strange.
Great discussion. The Great Contraction is a great metaphoric descriptor. (I love metaphors and use them frequently. Witness seismic events in the article.) It was suggested that contraction implies an expansion could follow. (I think Michael said rebirth - what a metaphor!) I would point out though, if a contraction is too strenuous, it can pass a critical point and become a compaction. Once compacted, the original shape can not be reformed by simple expansion; a reforging is needed to return to the former or to a new functional shape. We are still waiting for everything to be worked out to determine if we have had a contraction or a compaction.
markfl - - -
I still own SKF, but have lost a lot of money on the position. In my trading recommendations on TheStreet.com, I was in at $42 and stopped out at $40, with a run-up to $46 in between. Not good but way better than my investment accounts where I have held SKF for several months as a partial hedge against long positions.
morph - - -
I have commented a couple of times about too many swimming in the world's longest river, de Nile. Not exactly a metaphor, just a phonetic pun. A number of people have asked me what a river has to do with anything being discussed. Sometimes we can be too clever by far.
This ain't the Great Depression II no matter how much the Citizens of the World want to be part of something special.
I guess they'll just have to do something to earn it.
Yes, Muslim extremists are a bit of a problem but I don't think Civil War is a likely outcome. It would be over in an afternoon.
On Aug 25 11:29 AM Michael Clark wrote:
> 1. Denial
> 2. Anger
> 3. Bargaining
> 4. Acceptance
> 5. Depression.
>
> We are denying that we are in a depression now. Cheerleading of
> our leaders is a form of this depression. Reinflating is a part
> of this denial. Green shoots is an emblem of this denial.
>
> Next stage will be anger. Very likely anger will be directed at
> the bears, at those negative elements in American society who are
> not getting on board for the big win. Political anger, of course,
> could flair into open warfare, street fights, etc. Civil war is
> possible. I expect civil war in Europe (religious in nature, vs.
> Islam).
>
> Bargaining. Please tell me it isn't so. We are really losign our
> power. We are sinking into a world of chaos. We are losing control
> of the world.
>
> Acceptance. Ok. So we are sinking. It will be alright. We will
> all be ok.
>
> Depression. When we all agree we are in depression we will be close
> to the bottom. When the 'Housing Bottom' crowd agrees there is no
> bottom in sight and there may never be a bottom in sight; and when
> the 'green shoot' people all agree that Caterpiller is a raging short...then
> it may be just about time to put some long-term money back into the
> market.
The people are now beginning to turn their attention towards those they perceive to be responsible - the political factions. Their righteous anger is growing and will not be denied. Very historic times we live in. Great changes are on the near horizon.
Thanks for sharing the link to The Street article as promised.
Interesting points normalizing the magnitude of what we are going through to the Big One.
We may be out of the crisis envisioned when TARP was rammed through, but only the future will show us what the cost will be.
Thanks for commenting.
My grandparents were born in the 1860s (paternal) and the 1880s (maternal). I don't do seances.
I was born in the Great Depression and lived without running hot water and indoor bathrooms until I was 12 years old. And that was within 25 miles of the Canadian border, so I think I understand enough about the Great Depression not to have to call up anyone.
That is why I wrote (maybe you missed it):
" These are astounding relationships. We have been and still are in unchartered territory. The Great Depression may not be repeated, but, in some ways, we have exceeded it to the downside. The ability of the U.S.and the world economy to withstand such a shock amazes me."
On Aug 25 03:16 PM Tony Petroski wrote:
> Mr. Lounsbury: Don't you have a Grandmother? (I used to have two).
> If you are so lucky, call them up and check out your premises on
> them.
>
> This ain't the Great Depression II no matter how much the Citizens
> of the World want to be part of something special.
>
> I guess they'll just have to do something to earn it.
On Aug 25 01:44 PM Old Bill wrote:
> You don't know me, you don't want to know me.
>
> I come in peace, as a friend, but to warn you all.
>
> I have some information on the poster known as "Dave Wrixon".
>
>
> Aged 3 he befriended a local hobo, spent 20 days in his company.
> No sexual shenanigans were believed to have taken place
>
> Aged 4 he stabbed his Aunt Graces new born son with an office stationery
> implement. Too young for charges to be pressed
>
> Aged 10 was caught in a pyromaniacal situation involving a tree and
> soft drink cartons/trash. Officers dealt with the situation by a
> talk with
> Dave's parents
>
> Aged 14 he was found in sexual congress with a local felon named
> Tommy Hedley, charges dropped after mislaying of court documents
>
>
> Aged 18 he was found masturbating alone by a member of his church.
> This affair was dismissed as teenage angst.
>
> Aged 22 he was discovered with 1 ounce of Moroccan hashish about
> his person, the officer beat him with a correctional stick. No monetary
> fine
this article is excellent in quantifying the big picture.
"Be prepared for the unexpected. We have never gone this way before."
and this is where the rubber meets the asphalt. how will this play out? the economists are playing with their computer models and obviously with their current economic forecasts are telling us there is no problem.
is there any economist who is not raising their economic forecasts?
$7 trillion of losses is a huge hole. there are other wealth destruction losses of the Great Recession which could also be counted.
i am a pessimist that the economists are correct that we will simply economically recover - slowly but surely. but i have no choice but to give them the benefit of the doubt at this point.
but i will be watching what is happening like a hawk, and i will jump all over their a$$ at the first sign this is not going to their gameplan.
it is hard to believe (bordering on impossible) that we will not suffer through a Japanese L type recovery.
"I was born in the Great Depression and lived without running hot water and indoor bathrooms until I was 12 years old."
So John,
I take it that isn't a recent driver's license photo you have posted up top.
just kiddin
The photo was taken in May this year. The processing does hide some (but not all) of the wrinkles. I do look much younger than I am. I think it is because of my genes (a lot of relatives have lived well into their 90s and my physical activity level. I still go alpine skiing and do serious mountain hiking. I haven't gotten out this summer, but in 2008 I did over 81 miles and 19,000 vertical feet in six consecutive days in the Adirondacks. If that doesn't kill you, it keeps you young.
"Re-forging". I love that word and concept, since it stimulates an alchemical idea. We need to re-heat the old idea, in order to be able to 're-form' it.
Some physicists talk about the universe contracting back to a point (seed) of absolute density, with cold matter eventually generating its own heat and expansion. How does cold matter generate its own heat? Friction between the two principles, Expansion vs. Contraction. This friction between the two principles ignites the fire that leads to expansion and political/economic expansionism.
The timetable as I see it:
1983: densest point of contraction. Birth of the idea of re-expansion (Midnight/Winter)
1992: Friction at maximum. Expansion defeats Contraction (Dawn/Spring)
2001: Expansion's maximum extension. Contraction Idea re-born. (Noon/Summer)
2010: Friction at maximum. Contraction defeats Expansion (Dusk/Autumn).
2019: densest point of contraction. Birth of the idea of re-expansion (Midnight/Winter)
2028: Friction at maximum. Expansion defeats Contraction (Dawn/Spring)
Matter is Time in manifestation. Expansion.
Anti-Matter is Anti-Time in manifestation. Contraction.
I always enjoy your articles, John.
On Aug 25 01:29 PM John Lounsbury wrote:
> Michael Clark and User 353732 - - -
>
> Great discussion. The Great Contraction is a great metaphoric descriptor.
> (I love metaphors and use them frequently. Witness seismic events
> in the article.) It was suggested that contraction implies an expansion
> could follow. (I think Michael said rebirth - what a metaphor!)
> I would point out though, if a contraction is too strenuous, it can
> pass a critical point and become a compaction. Once compacted, the
> original shape can not be reformed by simple expansion; a reforging
> is needed to return to the former or to a new functional shape.
> We are still waiting for everything to be worked out to determine
> if we have had a contraction or a compaction.
>
> markfl - - -
>
> I still own SKF, but have lost a lot of money on the position. In
> my trading recommendations on TheStreet.com, I was in at $42 and
> stopped out at $40, with a run-up to $46 in between. Not good but
> way better than my investment accounts where I have held SKF for
> several months as a partial hedge against long positions.
>
> morph - - -
>
> I have commented a couple of times about too many swimming in the
> world's longest river, de Nile. Not exactly a metaphor, just a phonetic
> pun. A number of people have asked me what a river has to do with
> anything being discussed. Sometimes we can be too clever by far.
>
The odd thing about the 1930s: Jews wanted to be European, wanted to be Germans. The Jews enlisted in the German army for World War I at a higher rate than the Germans did. The Jews loved European culture, and wanted to participate in it, music, philosophy, education.
The Muslims, on the other hand, seem to care nothing about European culture, which they consider to be sinful.
Civil war in Europe will take the form of mass deportations, that will lead to armed conflict. It won't be over in an afternoon, especially with the willingness of Muslims to suicide-bomb their way to Paradise.
On Aug 25 03:22 PM Dave Wrixon wrote:
> So, you mean Albania against the rest?
>
> Yes, Muslim extremists are a bit of a problem but I don't think Civil
> War is a likely outcome. It would be over in an afternoon.
Whenever I use a line like that on the kids, the immediate retort is "Don't forget about walking uphill in two feet of snow, both ways."
I figured you must be active because of your vigorous objection to paying for other people's unhealthy lifestyles in a previous column, with which I agree.
"If that doesn't kill you, it keeps you young. ".
The US economy can be compared with a rusting old hulk that has been pumped out and repainted without taking it out of the water.
Sure it looks nice, but would you go to sea in it?
Unfortunately moving on from here is going to take commitment. That commitment simply is not there and the current leadership, and indeed the previous leadership, haven't understood the nature of the problem.
On Aug 25 01:29 PM John Lounsbury wrote:
> Michael Clark and User 353732 - - -
>
> Great discussion. The Great Contraction is a great metaphoric descriptor.
> (I love metaphors and use them frequently. Witness seismic events
> in the article.) It was suggested that contraction implies an expansion
> could follow. (I think Michael said rebirth - what a metaphor!) I
> would point out though, if a contraction is too strenuous, it can
> pass a critical point and become a compaction. Once compacted, the
> original shape can not be reformed by simple expansion; a reforging
> is needed to return to the former or to a new functional shape. We
> are still waiting for everything to be worked out to determine if
> we have had a contraction or a compaction.
>
> markfl - - -
>
> I still own SKF, but have lost a lot of money on the position. In
> my trading recommendations on TheStreet.com, I was in at $42 and
> stopped out at $40, with a run-up to $46 in between. Not good but
> way better than my investment accounts where I have held SKF for
> several months as a partial hedge against long positions.
>
> morph - - -
>
> I have commented a couple of times about too many swimming in the
> world's longest river, de Nile. Not exactly a metaphor, just a phonetic
> pun. A number of people have asked me what a river has to do with
> anything being discussed. Sometimes we can be too clever by far.
>
On Aug 26 01:01 AM Michael Clark wrote:
> Actually, it's the fact that the Muslims in Europe have no interest
> in becoming European, but want Europe to become Muslim. As Europeans
> become more fearful and aware of this threat to their cultural history,
> they will begin to mobilize against what seems to be a toxin in their
> social body. (Yes, this is very reminiscent of the 1930s.) Do a google
> search of 'Rise of Extreme Right in Europe' and you will get a lot
> of information about what is happening now.
>
> The odd thing about the 1930s: Jews wanted to be European, wanted
> to be Germans. The Jews enlisted in the German army for World War
> I at a higher rate than the Germans did. The Jews loved European
> culture, and wanted to participate in it, music, philosophy, education.
>
>
> The Muslims, on the other hand, seem to care nothing about European
> culture, which they consider to be sinful.
>
> Civil war in Europe will take the form of mass deportations, that
> will lead to armed conflict. It won't be over in an afternoon, especially
> with the willingness of Muslims to suicide-bomb their way to Paradise.
>
We are already giving up on a capitalist system, are moving towards government dependence, favoring big business over entrepeneurs and SMEs, abandoning our middle class and our moral values, and throwing away a real economy with real employment in favor of a financial pipe dream built on artificial printing presses and endless stimulation.
On Aug 26 04:18 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:
> Conceptwizard and the author are once again right, we have not escaped
> the recession's implications, we merely have forstalled it with even
> greater foolhardy actions. At this rate we will eventually run head
> up against a great wipeout sometime in the near future.
>
> We are already giving up on a capitalist system, are moving towards
> government dependence, favoring big business over entrepeneurs and
> SMEs, abandoning our middle class and our moral values, and throwing
> away a real economy with real employment in favor of a financial
> pipe dream built on artificial printing presses and endless stimulation.
Et tu Brutus and Caesar .......?
You wrote:
Whenever I use a line like that on the kids, the immediate retort is "Don't forget about walking uphill in two feet of snow, both ways."
In my case, it was true.
Specks - - -
In previous articles and comments I have discussed the Long Depression, which was comprised of a recession from 1873 to 1879, followed by seven shorter recessions that held sway during nine of the next 24 years. That was a period of 31 years with 55% of the time in recession.
I have not studied the business cycle prior to the Civil War.
So the Internet and Cell Phones will disappear? We will give up farm machinery for hoes and rakes? Automobiles out horses in?
That seems rather strange.