Value in Shortages: ExxonMobil (XOM), National Oilwell Varco (NOV), Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile (SQM), AMN Healthcare (AHS)
Cramer notes that the way to make real money in today's market is not just to play it safe with consumer staple companies like Proctor and Gamble (PG) and Pepsico (PEP), which rely on "multiple expansion" rather than increased earnings. Cramer suggests that investors should be looking for companies that can beat earnings and estimates. Companies that offer products or commodities for which there is a shortage are at liberty to set their own prices. He goes on to note that "pricing power is a big advantage because it leads to superior earnings". Cramer notes that there are shortages in oil rigs, nondrug lithium (for batteries) and nurses. The following are Cramer's shortage plays:
Rig Shortage: "Indonesia is running out of oil and natural gas because Exxon Mobil can't find enough drills to drill there -- not because the country is running out of prospects...The best way to play the rig shortage is National Oilwell Varco".
Lithium Shortage: "Although Dell's (DELL) exploding batteries got a lot of press, nobody talked about the massive lithium battery recall. We need millions of new batteries, and Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile (SQM) has a monopoly on the nondrug type of lithium"
Nursing Shortage: "We've got a nursing shortage," Cramer said. "The way I believe you can play it is AMN Healthcare...This is a best-of-breed company that helps people recruit nurses"
Cramer listed seven reasons as to why last week's rally was a "phantom rally" and means very little for the future:
1) People thought oil was coming down, but it's not.
2)"The puts were too negative, as it was options expiration week".
3) "Pre-announcements are coming and investors have bought stock in anticipation"
4) People thought the truce in Lebanon would hold, but it doesn't seem likely.
5) Hedge fund liquidatiuon.
6) Weakness in the housing market.
7) "When all the money managers come back from vacation, it's going to dawn on them that the democrats could be taking over congress in November. Money managers usually don't like it when Democrats are in power, and the realization that that's about to happen could cause them to unload an awful lot of stocks."
Bottom Line: "Get back into staples, supermarkets and drug stores for three more months." He also recommended making some profits from housing and speculative plays like EuroZinc Mining.
CEO Interview: Lorne Weil, CEO and Chairman , Scientific Gaming (SGMS)
Cramer asked him about the company's real revenue per share as compared to what analysts reported. Referring to the company's financials, Weil responded that analysts say that the company made 26 cents per share, when it actually made 32 cents. In response to Cramer's question as to why the analysts couldn't see this, Weil said that "even though Scientific walked the analysts through it, he believes that because many gaming stocks have been out of favor recently, when the tide is working against you, it's difficult to make analysts see what's actually happening."
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