Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) is a trust, originally set up by XTO Energy, which has a net profits interest in properties located in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. With the Fed's ZIRP policy, investors have been forced into riskier assets to find yield. Royalty trusts are one place where investors have ended up. Several of these have been bid up without investors realizing what the underlying properties are actually worth. I believe HGT is overvalued by 45%.
My production model assumes the following:
- Gas production declines at 7.5% per year. The past three years the decline rate has been 6%, 9.9% and 9.6%. A little bit of variance there, but I tried to pick a middle of the road
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