The big week of economic data got off to a weak start, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.37% in a day of light trading within a relatively narrow intraday range of 0.54% (the 16th percentile of intraday volatility for 2013). The markets are in suspense, waiting on the really big news comes later in the week: Wednesday's Q2 GDP, which will include major revisions back to 1929, and Friday' June employment report. On Wednesday we also get the latest FOMC statement, although the consensus is for no market-moving news. Meanwhile Monday's Pending Home Sales declined less than forecast. On the other hand, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing showed weaker growth than expected.
The US Treasury put yesterday's closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.61%, up three bps from Friday's close.
Here's a 5-minute look at yesterday with the intraday range highlighted. I've included the final hours of Friday for context.
Volume Monday was 26% below its 50-day moving average.
And speaking of light volume, check out the SPY ETF during the July melt-up.
The S&P 500 is now up 18.17% for 2013 and 0.60% below the all-time closing high of July 22.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here's a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.