The "But" Rally: When a Rally's Not Really a Rally

by: TickerSense

Reading this weekend’s weekly "Trader" column in Barron’s, we were struck by how much skepticism there was regarding last week’s rally. It seemed that any time someone quoted a positive development or an outlook for further gains, he or she immediately qualified that statement with a "but" clause that negated whatever point was made.

“But don't expect it to last beyond Labor Day.”

“But he's not convinced the rally has legs. "A pause in rate hikes isn't enough."

“…but trading volumes remain low, suggesting there's little real confidence.”

“…but Hui adds that volumes have been higher on down days and lower on up days.”

“But the builder's rally is likely just an enjoyable summer zephyr.”

“...but he notes that it's a quick trade to take advantage of a likely short-term rally.”

“...but the group's [homebuilders] long-term technical picture remains bearish."

“But when you're descending, the last step down can be as painful as the first.”

“...but it's hardly a contrarian call to start buying value now.”

“...but the numbers bear watching when the latest economic data strongly suggest that the economy is slowing in earnest”

“...but share repurchases are tricky to evaluate.”

“...but, unlike dividends, they [buybacks] don't actually put any money in shareholders' pockets or increase total profits.”