China Distance Education Holdings, Ltd. F3Q09 (Qtr End 6/30/2009) Earnings Call Transcript

China Distance Education Holdings, Ltd. (DL)

F3Q09 (Qtr End 6/30/2009) Earnings Call

August 18, 2009 8:00 am ET

Executives

Zhengdong Zhu - CEO

Ping Wei - CFO

Analysts

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Catherine Leung - Citigroup

Jeff Lee - Signal Hill

Presentation

Operator

Good evening, and thank you for standing by for the China Distance Education Holdings Limited fiscal 2009 third quarter Earnings Call.

Today, you will hear from Mr. Zhengdong Zhu, Chairman and CEO of the company, and Ms. Ping Wei, the CFO. (Operator Instructions)

Before we start, we would like to remind listeners that this conference call contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Among other things, the outlook for fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009 and oral statements from Management on this call, as well as the company's strategic and operational plans, contain forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements involve inherent risk and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Further information regarding these and other risk is included in the company's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents of the company as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. A summarized presentation can be downloaded from the company's IR website and which we will refer to during the course of this call. In addition, a webcast of this conference call is available on the company's Investor Relations website at ir.cdeledu.com.

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Zhu to discuss the operational highlights.

Zhengdong Zhu

[Foreign Language]

Thank you, everyone, for joining us on our fiscal 2009 third quarter results conference call. Our operating results were released yesterday and are available on the company's website, as well as on newswire services.

We're pleased to report another quarter of solid performance. We were able to make steady progress in all our business lines with our complementary businesses achieving especially high growth.

Starting on Slide 4, net revenues increased 78.6% year-over-year to $8.3 million, exceeding our guidance range. The increase in revenue was driven by online revenues and the strong growth in our book sales, in-person training revenue from Yucai and the Big Four accounting firms, and other complementary business revenues.

In short, our results for the quarter again demonstrate that we're able to deliver solid performance throughout the economic cycle.

Now, let me provide you with some operational updates on our key service areas. Our total enrollments for the quarter exceeded 214,000, a 7.4% increase year-over-year.

Moving to Slide 6. The enrollments for Accounting Professional Qualification Exam, or APQE, for the quarter increased to about 24,000, a 67.1% increase as compared to the earthquake-battered third quarter of fiscal 2008. Comparing this quarter to the more normalized third quarter of 2007 enrollments for APQE still increased by a healthy 34.6%.

Chinese CPA test preparation enrollments for the quarter were about 55,000, a 25% decrease from the same period of last year. However, on a year-to-date basis, total enrollments were 5.8% higher, as compared to the same period of last year.

We believe the attractive prices offered during our half-price promotion from August, 2008 to the beginning of February, 2009 resulted in some of our students enrolling earlier than usual. Quite some students actually enrolled in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008.

In fact, ignoring the fiscal calendar, if we prepare test season based enrollments, students who registered to write 2009 CPA exam and enrolled in our 2009 CPA exam courses are about 23% higher than that of last test season. We believe this increase is partially attributed to 2008 post-Sichuan earthquake enrollment, partially due to the half-price promotion, which we believe helped attracting some new students, and slightly negatively affected by this year's CPA exam policy change.

Starting this year, the government increased the number of courses required to receive the CPA designation from five to seven. As the policy is still new, we believe that some students may have deferred taking the test while trying to ascertain the new policy.

The enrollment in the accounting continuous education was about 49,000 this year, compared to 60,000 in the third quarter last year. While it appears that enrollments are down this year, we believe this is merely a timing difference. In fact, geographically, we have expanded our market reach to 26 provinces this year from 23 last year.

We are confident that the underlying demand for these courses remains strong and as such results, we believe the enrollment revenue will be higher on a calendar-year basis as compared to last year.

Moving to Slide 7, our self-taught higher education courses, enrollment for self-taught higher education for the quarter was about 8,000, a 28% increase from the same period of last year. We continue to promote the self-taught higher education studying process monitoring programs in more provinces and self-taught higher education schools. While the enrollments for the program have yet to reach a significant scale, we are seeing positive signs that the program will soon be accepted and roll out across the country.

To further strengthen this business line, we recently appointed Mr. Yueping Liu as Vice President and the Head of our Self-Taught Higher Education business. Mr. Liu has over 20 years education experience working with various government agencies, including the Ministry of Education, overseeing self-taught higher education. Mr. Liu brings with him a wealth of experience in designing government self-taught higher education programs, and a deep understanding of the needs of students who choose this education route. We believe that this new addition will help further enhance our already strong capabilities to fully tap into the market potential in the self-taught higher education sector.

Turning to the healthcare segment on Slide 8, the enrollment for healthcare courses grew by 8.6% year-over-year to about 18,000. Enrollment growth this quarter was negatively affected by the discontinuation of a compulsory studying program, which contributed to about 4,000 enrollments in the same period of last year. Excluding this impact, our enrollments would have increased by about 35.9%.

As we do not have any serious competitors in this particular market segment and the company already commands over 50% online market share in this vertical, we firmly believe that this program will continue to expand its reach for a larger number of students. In fact, there are a total of about 1.5 million test takers a year in this vertical, and there are not many test preparation courses available online or offline. We will continue to look for measures that will further expedite our growth in this vertical.

Turning to Slide 9. Noticeably, this quarter we achieved an average student payment increase year-over-year for all our main business lines. This demonstrated our success also in differentiated products and pricing options to our students.

In addition, heading into the new enrollment season for APQE test preparation courses, on July 1st, we raised the same course unit prices for some APQE course by over 20%. We're happy to see that, despite the increase, our enrollments remain healthy, demonstrating our ability to raise prices as we enjoy strong brand recognition, particularly in the accounting vertical.

This quarter, Yucai, a subsidiary we acquired in February of this year that engages in business startup training, enrolled about 25,000 students, representing about $2 million to $3 million of recognizable revenue. $0.7 million was recognized in the quarter, as we received positive confirmation from the local labor department confirming that Yucai has fulfilled its training obligations, and that we should receive payments from the government in the near future.

This completes my update on business operations. Let me now turn the call over to Wei Ping, our CFO, to walk you through our third quarter financials.

Ping Wei

Before going over our detailed financials, I would like to give you a brief roundup of our financial performance in the quarter, starting on slide 11. To capitalize on the growth opportunities in the education market in China, we have continued investing in our business, as well as the acquired businesses of Yucai. As expected, these ongoing investments have had some short-term impact on our margins.

The margins in the quarter were also impacted by a shift in revenue mix as the lower-margin books and reference material sales accounted for bigger percentage of our total revenue, increasing to 13.3% of total revenue from 9.7% for the same period in 2008.

Meanwhile, we remain focused on controlling our costs and expenses. The measures we have put in place have helped to keep our margins at healthy levels, contributing to an improved profitability during the quarter.

Now, let me recap our key financial metrics for the quarter. Total net revenues for the third quarter of fiscal 2009 were $8.3 million, a year-over-year increase of 78.6% from $4.6 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2008.

Online education services net revenues for the quarter were $5.4 million, an increase of 45.4% from the same period 2008. The increase was mainly driven by course enrollment growth in previous quarters, and an increase in average student payment in most of our business lines in this quarter.

Our complementary businesses continued to grow rapidly during the quarter. Sales of books and reference materials grew by 143.6% to $1.1 million for the quarter. Other revenues, primarily comprised of platform production and related services, in-person training, and magazine content production services, reached $1.8 million, an increase of 281.3% from the same period last year. Our newly acquired Yucai also generated $0.7 million in revenues in the quarter, as mentioned by Zhengdong earlier.

The cost of sales for the quarter was $4.4 million, an increase of 124.1% over the same period 2008 and a 28.5% sequential increase over the second quarter. Excluding share based compensation, a non-GAAP measure, cost of sales was $3.9 million, 127.8% increase year-over-year and a 35% sequential increase.

The increase in cost of sales, as compared to the same quarter of fiscal 2008, was primarily due to higher salaries and welfare expenses and rental and utilities expenses, as we added more personnel and increased the rental space to accommodate our headcount growth. Higher share based compensation charge due to a repricing in the year also contributed to the increase.

The increase in cost of sales, as compared to the same quarter of fiscal year 2008, and sequentially, was primarily due to an increase in the cost of books and reference materials in line with the increase in their sales, the increased cost of sales from the newly acquired Yucai, and the increased lecturer fee due to the increases in course offerings.

The gross profit for the quarter was $3.8 million, representing a 44.6% increase year-over-year. Excluding share based compensation, non-GAAP gross profit was $4.4 million, an increase of 49% year-over-year.

Gross margin was 46.3%, compared to 57.2% in the same period last year. Excluding share based compensation, the non-GAAP gross margin was 53%, compared to 63.1% in the same period last year.

The decrease in gross margin was primarily a result of revenue from lower margin books and reference materials contributing to a larger percentage of revenue, expenses related to Yucai, personnel costs, and rental and utilities expenses as a result of the increased headcount I noted earlier.

Total operating expenses for the third quarter were $3.9 million, a year-over-year increase of 101.6% and a sequential increase of 17.4%. Excluding share based compensation, a non-GAAP measure, operating expenses were $3.2 million, an increase of 94% year-over-year, and a 15.1% increase quarter-over-quarter.

The increase in selling expenses, as compared to the same quarter of 2008, was primarily due to increased headcount in the company's customer services and sales departments. Expenses from the newly acquired Yucai, sponsorship for an IT contest, as well as commissions paid to online agents, and a share based compensation charge contributed to the increase, both sequentially and as compared to the same quarter of fiscal 2008.

The year-over-year increase in general and administrative expenses was primarily the result of increased headcount, expenses from Yucai, additional expenses associated with being a US public company, and the increased share based compensation charge in the quarter.

Income tax expenses for the third quarter of fiscal 2009 were $50,000, compared to $30,000 in the same period of 2008.

Net income was $90,000 for the third quarter of fiscal 2009, compared to $500,000 in the same period of last year. Excluding share-based compensation, the non-GAAP net income for the quarter was $1.3 million, as compared to $1.1 million in the same period of last year.

Slide 12 shows the details of our balance sheet. Net operating cash outflow for the third quarter of fiscal 2009 was $0.6 million, compared with cash inflow of $1.9 million over the same period of last year, primarily due to the negative changes in working capital.

Cash and cash equivalents and term deposits as of June 30, 2009, decreased to $57.2 million from $61.4 million, as of March 31, 2009. This decrease was mainly due to a deposit made to a potential acquisition packet, capital expenditure for the purchase of electronic equipment, and intangible assets, and the repurchase of some of our ADSs from the open market in the amount of $700,000, $400,000, and $2.4 million, respectively.

Deferred revenue and refundable fees balance was $8.7 million, as revenue from APQE has been recognized during the quarter.

This completes my financial overview. We noted that and I referred to increases in stock based compensation charge and throughout the cost and expenses discussion, but it's not because we issued new options; it's merely a recording of all previous options.

That's my financial overview. Now, I would turn the call back to Mr. Zhu for the final remarks on strategy and business update, as well as financial guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009.

Zhengdong Zhu

[Foreign Language]

Moving onto Slide 14. We continue to execute our integrated growth strategy, mainly to grow enrollments in our existing courses, expand course offerings in both existing and new verticals to achieve more enrollments, to promote life-long learning programs, so that students stay with us longer and we generate more revenue from the same student.

Last, but not the least, we continue to look for business development and M&A opportunities to further expand our business.

As we noted in our earnings announcement, we have recently signed a number of contracts with professional associations in the engineering, and construction, and real estate fields, to provide accredited continual education courses for their certified members. Again, demonstrating our ability to replicate our business model in different verticals, these contracts will enable us to reach more than 600,000 participants a year, who are required to take continuing education courses in these respective industries; a significant growth opportunity for us in the continuous education business front. We are very pleased with this development, and look forward to continuing to expand our course offerings in the engineering and construction and other professional industries.

On the M&A front, we are actively seeking opportunities in the Gaokao re-take, and primary and secondary after-school supplementary education market. Gaokao, the college entrance exam in China, is an extremely competitive endeavor for Chinese students in earlier years for admission into universities and more recently for admission by higher-quality colleges or universities to better students' chances of finding good job.

Competition for Gaokao does not start at grade 12, rather, it starts from grade one. Parents enroll their children in after-school classes from grade one to improve their children's opportunities for a better Gaokao score and in turn to a better college. At present, Gaokao re-take businesses and the primary and secondary school, after-school supplementary education markets are large and highly fragmented, which presents exciting opportunities for DL. We will look for opportunities, both in the online and offline space, as we believe that DL can leverage the ground presence of an offline company, to gain momentum in our more lucrative online program offerings in specific geographic regions.

In conclusion, we will continue to invest in and grow the business, and will look to save market opportunities in different segments of the education market. We believe the favorable macroenvironment and our strong competitive strength will allow us to continue to enjoy steady growth in the future.

Looking ahead, we expect our revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 to come in between $9.5 million to $11.5 million, as compared to net revenues of $7.7 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. This represents the company's current and preliminary view, which is subject to change.

Operator

(Operator Instructions)

Your first question comes from the line of Mark Marostica from Piper Jaffray.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

I want to start off with a broader question on leverage that's inherent in the model. I mean clearly, you guys saw strong revenue growth this quarter yet again, but thing, as you noticed expenses did grow faster than revenue. What are you doing to contain costs going forward? When do you think you'll reach that inflection point when you'll see leverage return to the model?

Ping Wei

We have started implementing pricing and cost controls in place, actually, right basically after Q2 of this fiscal year, realizing that our cost and the expense growth have outpaced our revenue growth. Now, on going-forward basis, because we have acquired Yucai and Yucai now has been consolidated 100% on all the revenue-expenses lines, and as a result of that, you should still see some slight increases, both in cost and expense lines in fourth quarter, but it won't be dramatic. So, you will start to see improved margins starting Q4 already. Going forward, as we head into fiscal year '10, company is very committed to strictly control the headcount increase, while we continue to extend our business relatively at faster pace. So, the short answer is you should continue to see leverage going forward Q4 and next year.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Then I wanted to also touch on the average payment per student, which was up quite strong this quarter. What do you see for the September quarter? How should we think about average payment per student going forward, factoring in maybe two parts, one being your normal price increases and two being mix, how those two together will influence the average payment per student?

Ping Wei

The average in payment per student has increased quite significantly, both from GAAP perspective and from cash enrollment perspective. Our overall cash enrollment and ASP increase is also about 18% in the quarter, as compared to same period of last year. On going forward, you should see a relatively elevated ASP level, as compared to same period of last year, and relatively stable ASP, but slightly then lower because of the revenue mix in Q4 '09. Our level is a bit lower in Q4 because in Q4 there are two main enrollment contributors.

One is accounting continuous education, for which we expect a fairly significant number of enrollments. Last year, same quarter, without getting to telling you forward numbers that we did not disclose, last year in accounting class we had 88,000 enrollments, and this year, we should expect even higher number than that. The majority of that would be like a $10 ASP accounting continuous education enrollment. So that mix will pull down the ASP on Q4.

Secondly, as the ITAT contest enrollment, the ITAT training is also a lower ASP business, similar to last year. We expect strong growth to average growth in Q4 as well. Overall, those two composition shift will result in us having a much lower ASP in the quarter. If we compare to same period last year, we probably would see a relatively stable ASP.

Mark Marostica - Piper Jaffray

Your revenue guidance for Q4 is fairly wide, $9.5 million to $11.5 million. I wanted to first ask a question regarding deferred revenues, $8.7 million at the end of the third quarter. What proportion of that will actually be recognized in the fourth quarter? Then the second part of the question, what has to go right for you to hit the top-end of the guidance as opposed to how you're thinking about the bottom-end of the guidance?

Ping Wei

I will address the second part of the question first, the $9.5 million to $11.5 million. We actually have in the $9.5 million about $4 million that's deferred revenue carried over into the quarter and will be recognized in the quarter. That's the first part. Secondly, in terms of refundable fee, we probably will recognize another $300,000 in Q4 '09.

Then in addition, the second part of the question is, basically, how comfortable are we with the range, and what has to go right to reach $11.5 million?

Now, I will talk about $9.5 million first. $9.5 million is very conservative. We are very comfortable with the low-end. Now between $9.5 million and $11.5 million, what's in there? What's in there is; one, Yucai. We're building about $700,000 of Yucai revenue in Q4, believing that with the current pace this should be a reasonably achievable number. As Zhengdong mentioned, the recognizable revenue by end of Q3 will already add $2 million to $3 million, and as you noted, we only recognized $680,000 in Q3. So, the leftover is more than $1.8 million, so building Q4 as in $700,000.

In addition to that there is a bit of room for continuous education and ITAT. The accounting continuous education, as we noted earlier, is a new business. We have a bit of uncertainty in regards to the timing of student enrollment, but based on July number, we are highly comfortable with our numbers building, but we want to put in some buffer. Also, ITAT as well, we're building a bit of buffer. That's basically where we have this $2 million of in-between numbers. In general, we're very comfortable with the guidance range.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Catherine Leung from Citigroup.

Catherine Leung - Citigroup

[Foreign Language]

Ping Wei

Let me first translate Catherine's question. The first question Catherine asked about new business, the market share for new business, and the factors affecting DL's market share in new business. The second question is about the gross profit margin outlook for 2010.

Catherine Leung - Citigroup

Actually, my first question was on the core business, so specifically actually over the online accounting test prep business.

Zhengdong Zhu

[Foreign Language]

As we mentioned, the increase in market share is helped by getting listed and also the rising brand recognition and also the half-price promotion that we had last year.

Ping Wei

Basically, we think all those helps. We can really sort of quantify which one contributed to what portion of the market share increase, but it is. We can positively confirm that that based on the numbers we see, unfortunate, we cannot discuss the test takers' numbers because those are sort of government information that's not actually publicly available, but based on the numbers we see and our enrollment growth achieved in the year, we did gain market share with both APQE exams and CPA test market.

Catherine Leung - Citigroup

Actually a follow-up. Have you see any particular trends in terms of the market share gains, though? In other words, are you seeing, for example, increasing penetration in the Tier 2, Tier 3 cities or in any particular demographics, for example, from the college students?

Ping Wei

This question we probably don't have a ready answer at the moment. Our students are widely distributed, and the increase is also widely distributed.

The second question was basically on margin expectations for 2010. We just started our budgeting exercise, so we don't have a Board-approved budget in front of us as yet, but the Management team has been vigorously looking at our growth drivers and as well looking at our margin potentials. Now, what you can say is that this year we probably already hit a low point in terms of margin, both at gross level and at net margin level, and we should then see margin expansion in 2009.

At this point, we can say that Management aims to achieve a net margin before share based compensation, before tax, similar to 2008 level, which is based on current guidance for Q4 revenue and our current internal review of our annual projected margin. It should be a fairly sizable improvement in terms of margin ratio.

Operator

(Operator Instructions)

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Lee from Signal Hill.

Jeff Lee - Signal Hill

The first question I wanted to ask was about Yucai and just wanted to know a little bit more about master deal and the terms. Should we expect that revenue is recognizable every quarter? Then the $2 million to $3 million that you earned is for what period and when is that recognizable?

Ping Wei

In terms of Yucai's revenue, the current policy is that we either receive cash or receive positive confirmation from government agency indicating that they're happy with the training. Basically, from their perspective, we have completed our obligation of delivering the services. If we meet either one, the commission will recognize revenue. So having said that, because now we have programs in eight cities and in the majority of the programs are very new, we're working with each of the city to streamline the process. So answer your question, on the $2 million to $3 million recognizable revenue, that's all earned in Q3 of fiscal year '09. We don't know in the end in terms of accounting revenue over how long a period will all those be recognized.

In addition, we are still providing other additional services to students. So, the recognizable revenue actually will continue to snowball as well. Now, our guidance for Q4 of RMB5 million, we think, is highly achievable, given the progress we already made with a few cities.

The deal structure, let me recap it a bit. Basically, it's a RMB36 million acquisition for 60% equity interest of Yucai. The RMB36 million, actually RMB16.5 million was payment to the shareholder, to the founder, and RMB19.5 million actually is the new capital injected into the business. They are building sort of callbacks and also cost as where by, if the founder does not meet certain revenue or profit targets, we will adjust the percentage of ownership, as well as potentially get out of the deal. We don't have any final expectation as to how in the end this year's financial picture is going to be like for Yucai. For Q3 '09, we Yucai actually broke even. Q4 '09, we expect Yucai to incur expenses around $1 million. That's probably the most I can tell you at the moment, Jeff.

Jeff Lee - Signal Hill

Is there any seasonality in that business? Or, should we expect that you are accrue revenue at this $2 million to $3 million per quarter base going forward?

Ping Wei

This business is very new, so I can't really tell how the seasonality is going to shape out. At this moment, we see good enrollment momentum both in Q2, Q3 and to-date for the period. They doesn't have very clear and obvious seasonality in their business.

Jeff Lee - Signal Hill

The book revenue, can you explain why is book revenue growing faster than enrollments and is this something that's likely to continue into the future?

Ping Wei

Actually, remember last year Q4 there was a $0.9 million of book revenue we were not able to recognize, because cash were not collected. So, we actually have book revenue lagging actual book distribution quite a bit. Having said that, we do see our book volume increase quite dramatically. First of all, our books are of very high quality, consistent with company's philosophy on delivering quality in whatever we do. So because we have very high quality books and also very low cost structure of our books, our books are very competitive in the market. As such, our books are gaining market share more and actually faster than our enrollment revenue because we started our book business much later than our online training business.

In terms of actual delivery, we almost doubled the delivery volume this year as compared to last year. We expect strong momentum to carry into fiscal year 2010, but at this moment, we can't really sort of quantify whether the increase is going to be 50% or 100% or 200%.

Jeff Lee - Signal Hill

I wanted to hear a little bit more about self-taught, maybe a status update on your efforts in Beijing, and then if there's anything to report on trying to get in agreement, to become a recommended provider with a ground school.

Ping Wei

On self-taught high education, as Zhengdong mentioned, we hired an ex-government official basically overseeing the self-taught program to work for us. He helped a lot in picking up the momentum, both at the central government level and at provincial level. Having said that, we're in very active discussions with quite a few provinces and university colleges. We are very close to inking deals, but because it's government, we can't really say exactly when.

Operator

I'm showing no further questions at this time. Are there any closing remarks?

Ping Wei

Well, I guess then thank you again for joining us today. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the new future. Also, we look forward to seeing all of you at our Investor Day event on September 18, 2009, in our office. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you, again, for joining us today. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the near future. This concludes the conference. You may now disconnect.

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