Is the Market Correction Finally Here? 46 comments
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Boy, those bearish commentators just aren’t letting up. Their growling only gets louder. Perhaps there is going to be a correction of some sort after all, especially with stock markets up about 50% over the past six months.
If you are a trader with high risk tolerance, you might consider the exchange-traded note tracking the VIX, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), or some double-short bear exchange-traded funds, such as the:
If you aren’t a trader, you’ll of course sit tight and keep your focus on the long term (and who knows, maybe the market will keep climbing this fall). In any event, here are main points from reports that crossed my desk recently.
From TrimTabs Investment Research:
- selling by U.S. corporate insiders in August surged to $6.1 billion, highest amount since May 2008; the ratio of insider selling to insider buying hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004
- rally supported by short covering — short interest on NYSE stocks plummeted by 10.3% in the second half of July
From David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff:
- signs of buyer fatigue appear to be emerging as signaled by the stock market’s lukewarm reception to recent good news (increases in house prices/sales, durable orders, and consumer confidence)
- 50% gain in the S&P 500 since March has market trading at 130 times trailing (reported) earnings
- Investors Intelligence survey shows 51.6% respondents in the bullish camp with just 19.8% in the bear camp — market sentiment hasn’t been this “smug” since the autumn of 2007 (right before the fall)
- weakest periods of the year, September and October, just around the corner
- car purchases to retrench in U.S. following end to cash-for-clunkers program
From IHS Global Insight:
- “When given sufficient incentive (as in cash-for-clunkers) consumers will spend. But reduced wealth, high debt, tight credit, and a weakening labor market are all weighing on consumers. Consumers remain a missing link in hopes for strong recovery” – Nigel Gault, Chief U.S. Economist for IHS Global Insight.
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This article has 46 comments:
(I sometimes feel like I should be wandering the streets in rags, holding up a sign reading "The end is Near!")
Now, given this strong advance, it certainly seems that the major stock indexes are most likely to decline by X% in the traditionally difficult months of Sept/Oct. The difficulty for both professional and retail investors is in knowing if that decline will be significant enough (and just as important, last long enough) to warrant some serious selling (like maybe sell 50% or more of your stock portfolio -- meaning if 60% invested in stocks, should one sell down to 30% or less).
One consideration is that the bears have been warning of a decline for months, only to see new ( yes former bear) buyers come in whenever stocks decline by a few % points...they wanted in so badly that they just would not let stocks drop as expected.
Obviously, many bears are actually "closet bulls" who missed the March move, and who only want the market lower so they can get in at lower prices.
In any event, markets move on the balance of fear and greed -- and most always overshoot in both directions. If you (like myself) have been more greedy than fearful these last 5 months, you (like me) may wish to examine your allocation to stocks. I am selling down to about 45% stocks, because even if we have a sharp and steep decline, I am convinced buyers (todays remaining bears) will pounce and drive stocks back up quicker than I can identify the bottom and get back in.
p.s. Note to bears and chartists -- I remind you of that "double top" formation in June that you loudly proclaimed as a "sure indicator" that stocks would immediately tumble back to test 666...strange isn't it that the market has a record of confounding the most people when they are sure of its direction
p.p.s. Same goes for bulls who bought going into, and after, the all-time top in Oct. 2007 -- just before this deep recession started in December.
Has debt been reduced or moved from one pocket to another (less economically efficient) pocket? Has demand grown without the help of (again economically inefficient) government subsidies? Are people and companies being incented to behave in the way that made the current crisis worse in the first place? Do Freddie Fannie and now Ginnie still exist? Are the remaining banks even bigger than before and even more likely to be bailed out next time around? Is the consumer about to be creamed by a combination of inflation, increased taxes and high unemployment? Come on guys... Forget the "L" "W" or "V" and lets talk about fixing this thing instead of pretending that our economy is simply an act of faith that needs to be restored by cheer leading.
I apologize - this rant could have been posted to many of the articles posted this week but I chose this one because discussion of corrections and opinion polls piss me off when there are so many hard decisions to make and work to be done.
What this implies for ARMS (and other technical indicators as well) is speculation at this point. Consider that in 2008, C averaged around 100 million shares a day volume. Over the last month, volume has averaged nearly 1 BILLION a day (diluted shares outstanding have increased about 15%). How much of this volume is due to millisecond speed software looking for pennies a share? Granted much activity is short selling and short covering (and, reputedly, Mr. Paulson taking a major position), however just consider the impact on ARMS, relative to history, when one issue advances on 10 times the volume ( => big decrease in its ARMS). Distortion relative to historical norms is certainly possible.
The same may also be true for other volume-based technical indicators since, what used to be a marketplace for individual investors, has been replaced by automatons vying with each other for a penny here and a penny there. Time will tell if noticeable distortions actuallly materialize, but my own guess is that future historical analyses of technical indicators will be suspect if they go back before 2009.
"signs of buyer fatigue appear to be emerging as signaled by the stock market’s lukewarm reception to recent good news (increases in house prices/sales, durable orders, and consumer confidence)"
Yet just in the last two weeks the the stark market surged 5% due to great economic news.
On Aug 29 01:44 AM Suzanne H. wrote:
> Well, if nothing else, history has taught us that the leaders of
> the next bull market are not going to be financials, and especially
> not the ones garnering the most trading volume lately.
"Stark" market? Methinks there's a Freudian slip, here...
Everybody is expecting a move down. Estimates vary from correction to outright depression scenario. Which means its not happening, guys. The market is out there to fool as many people as possible. Personally, I think the blogosphere's sentiment is not that much different from march lows, maybe a bit more positive. Most of you guys out there missed the boat, admit it!
As for the strength of the recovery... It will be strong. Many great pieces on it out there, I''m too busy/lazy to repeat them. :)
You had better hope not Gtarras. If true, the Fed will have to raise rates and they just cannot do that and expect the economy to recover. In a 'strong recovery', energy prices will increase, also quenching any real earnings progress.
No, Bernake has us on a razor's edge where growth cannot exceed certain limits and more easy money will just inflate another doomed bubble. Like you say, "The market is out there to fool as many people as possible." This included the poor bastard retail who get to claim 'sold to me!', at the top..
With that said, even bulls can expect small corrections in an uptrending market. imho, this is heading to 1100'ish on the S&P in the near future. But don't be the one fooled by Mr. Market on a possible 30% correction in later fall and into 2010.
On Aug 29 11:56 AM Gtarras wrote:
> So I've read this article and gone through the comments. And I saw
> just one poster who tried to sound somewhat bullish. Just one!!<br/>
>
> Everybody is expecting a move down. Estimates vary from correction
> to outright depression scenario. Which means its not happening, guys.
> The market is out there to fool as many people as possible. Personally,
> I think the blogosphere's sentiment is not that much different from
> march lows, maybe a bit more positive. Most of you guys out there
> missed the boat, admit it!
>
> As for the strength of the recovery... It will be strong. Many great
> pieces on it out there, I''m too busy/lazy to repeat them. :)
On Aug 29 09:30 AM Stelly wrote:
> Forrest for the trees Larry. Its not Bulls against Bears in some
> massive video game of technical analysis and opinion surveys... Look
> at the fundamentals and ask yourself how much has really changed
> and you will find your answer.
>
> Has debt been reduced or moved from one pocket to another (less economically
> efficient) pocket? Has demand grown without the help of (again economically
> inefficient) government subsidies? Are people and companies being
> incented to behave in the way that made the current crisis worse
> in the first place? Do Freddie Fannie and now Ginnie still exist?
> Are the remaining banks even bigger than before and even more likely
> to be bailed out next time around? Is the consumer about to be creamed
> by a combination of inflation, increased taxes and high unemployment?
> Come on guys... Forget the "L" "W" or "V" and lets talk about fixing
> this thing instead of pretending that our economy is simply an act
> of faith that needs to be restored by cheer leading.
>
> I apologize - this rant could have been posted to many of the articles
> posted this week but I chose this one because discussion of corrections
> and opinion polls piss me off when there are so many hard decisions
> to make and work to be done.
Say what?
S&P 500 was in 800's during Biderman's Bloomberg TV July 2, 2009
interview (BTW, the clueless perma-bear only pops up on TV on market
down days) when the perma-bear predicted "the end of the bear market
rally" because Biderman did not see any "cash on the sidelines to
support the market" (same bearish B.S. that he said today, ~200 S&P 500
points higher or ~25% higher)
www.youtube.com/watch?...
And the bear never learns,
Biderman on June 18, 2009, "Short the market" because (according to Biden)):
1. Retail investors heavy inflows to the market ("retail dumb money that
has always been wrong", when in fact the one who has always been wrong
is Biderman)
2. Record insider selling ("we've never seen such heavy insider selling")
3. Record secondary offerings, companies selling debt and there are no
more money left to buy stocks
4. "We do not see anymore sideline cash"
plus.cnbc.com/rssvideo...
Lol, the clueless perma-bear was actually shorting banks in June (the
best performing sector since June).
What stocks have led the ginned up rally? Financials, insurance, and mortgage lenders. What a surprise.
Adrenaline, steroids, or liquid courage (booze) can make someone do amazing things for a short period of time, and then...
What fundamental strength is there to maintain the current levels? Employment? Nope. Falling credit and loan defaults? Nope (prime loans starting to fail). Consumer spending? Nope (WalMart and discounters doing well is a bearish sign, not bullish). Lower taxes and spending? Nope. Contraction of the money supply and raising lending rates? Nope. Corporate profits generated by selling more goods versus firing people and cutting services? Nope.
If you can't see that the past five months run up 50% is based on false hope, speculation, and desperation to prevent a run on the banks then you should take the blinders off.
Even if I am completely wrong, and things are just peachy, do you want to take the chance on a -65% correction from here? Take your profits and put them somewhere safe; we approach the year anniversary of the collapse.
The rally is non-sensical, and manipulated.
Manipulation only works for so long before the truth is known.
That is when the fireworks start.
It's the difference between being conservative and fool-hardy. I'd rather miss 20% on the upside of a speculative rally, than lose 40% when the correction comes.
Take your profits now.
On Aug 29 01:35 PM Lauren M. wrote:
> TrimTabs Investment Research? From a clueless perma-bear? From Charles
> Biderman?
>
> Say what?
>
> S&P 500 was in 800's during Biderman's Bloomberg TV July 2, 2009
>
> interview (BTW, the clueless perma-bear only pops up on TV on market
>
> down days) when the perma-bear predicted "the end of the bear market
>
> rally" because Biderman did not see any "cash on the sidelines to
>
> support the market" (same bearish B.S. that he said today, ~200 S&P
> 500
> points higher or ~25% higher)
>
> www.youtube.com/watch?...
>
> And the bear never learns,
>
> Biderman on June 18, 2009, "Short the market" because (according
> to Biden)):
>
> 1. Retail investors heavy inflows to the market ("retail dumb money
> that
> has always been wrong", when in fact the one who has always been
> wrong
> is Biderman)
>
> 2. Record insider selling ("we've never seen such heavy insider selling")
>
>
> 3. Record secondary offerings, companies selling debt and there are
> no
> more money left to buy stocks
>
> 4. "We do not see anymore sideline cash"
>
> plus.cnbc.com/rssvideo...
>
>
>
> Lol, the clueless perma-bear was actually shorting banks in June
> (the
> best performing sector since June).
"Mark To Myth" Still in Effect, Bankrupt Companies experiencing "Amazing Gains" and "High Volume", Treasury Auctions Are Weak and would "Fail" if not for Collusion, and Governmental Efforts To "Remove Control" from the citizens in "Most Aspects Of Society". Only Fools Put Their Faith In "Words" And Dismiss "Action And Event".
If we continue on our current path - your information may be curtailed and what you "Hear" may not match what you "See".
Bill would give president emergency control of Internet:
news.cnet.com/8301-135...
Do We Not Seem To "Live" In A Constant State Of Emergency?
To Assume Benevolence Is Foolish.
The list is almost endless, and most won't provide timing -- use the charts for that, and markets globally are setting up in similar fashion (see SPY charts seekingalpha.com/insta... and some global markets legacyfunds.wordpress..../)
I agree that all doesn't seem well -- clearly from a macroeconomic standpoint these are not bullish times, from a valuation standpoint the S&P is not cheap, some of the sentiment polls are conflicting -- many showing extreme levels of bullishness like Investors Intelligence at highest level since Dec 2007 but AAII showing high level of bears. The smart money has been claiming we are topping out, and so have the majority of posters here (maybe all smart money as well). Leveraged bull funds have 2.5 times more money than leveraged bear funds. Market extremely overbought over 20 week ma.
If nothing else, trade by the charts. Use TA to time when to be long and when to short and most importantly when to cut the loss when the trade doesn't go as planned. The best traders can switch from one to the other based on what they follow on the charts -- no medals of honor are given for fighting a trend. With that said, I am starting to position on the short side, mostly china past few weeks and been profitable and just recently shorting emerging markets. This is based on very short term charts, and will hold/add shorts if the daily charts line up with the short term charts in being bearish; will stop out and go long if the intraday charts switch to being bullish along with daily charts.
If you don't want to be tied down trading off a 15 min or 60 min chart, you can do daily, weekly, or even monthly timing. You can also do well following a very long term chart, like a 20 month or 80 wma -- you would have been out of market since jan 2008 and still out (can see long term indicators delineating bull/bear markets: legacyfunds.wordpress..../). Having risk management in place allows for countless ways to make money in this and any market. This holds for retail investors and professionals -- in fact many times that is what makes the difference between the two.
On Aug 29 04:07 PM Suzanne H. wrote:
> I think what we are starting to see now is the bears capitulating.
> There definitely is speculative trading going on with C/AIG/FNM/FRE/...
> These are the best performers? These are the leaders of the next
> bull market? No, these are the stocks that were sold short the heaviest.
s.
> Market extremely overbought over 20 week ma.
"Truth is no match for conviction."
See my book 'Schroedinger's Universe'
on Amazon.com
And by the way they have been ordered to comply on Monday. I'm sure they start looking for the documents on Monday, they may, or may not find them in a timely manner. Then again the FED probably doesn't have any lawyers working on a stay or appeal. Reassuring they are looking out for us.
A real Clownfest over here. Conspiracy theories and right wing the "end is nigh" propoganda.
The Clowns are lapping this one right up. Gotta love that. Even clowns should have the right to voice an opinion.
Enjoy talking to yourselves, ladies.
> Leisure suit Larry, nice one.
>
> A real Clownfest over here. Conspiracy theories and right wing the
> "end is nigh" propoganda.
>
> The Clowns are lapping this one right up. Gotta love that. Even clowns
> should have the right to voice an opinion.
>
> Enjoy talking to yourselves, ladies.
FB5000 - You show up and prefer to "Insult" Rather Than "Inform" - How Noble Of You.
Do Tell Us What You See That Many Don't - Your Cause For Comfort Is????
> well the end is near,the end is near, they have been saying that
> since the end of march!!! correction, we r due 4 a correction,
> well correct already, im really tired of the bs. seems people just
> want something to print. if i listened to any of this bs i wouldnt
> be in the nice position im in. so lets see this correction, because
> i have some extra money on the side just in case it dips so i can
> buy some more!!! buy low,sell high. and dont be greedy-it really
> works!!!
Enjoy Your Profits. There Is Nothing Wrong With Being Lucky. Or it could be that you made good choices -Even In Dire Times There Are Solid Companies That Are Good Bets.
Apparently you discount the fact that this "Rally" Began at The Point "Mark To Market" Was Repealed. Is There no Correlation?
How about the 12+ Trillion Dollars Robed From The Future - No Effect???
There are other factors you may want to look into - Ignore the "Emotional Discourse" and "Filter The Dialog For Event And Action".
If you choose not to - suffer as you must.
If you are not paying attention you will have no forewarning when "Pretend Ends"..
I Agree - Ride The Wave - Better Plan An Exit Before You Reach The Beach. All Waves Eventually Reach The Shore.
> My only consolation is that if we do go through a great crash in
> the fall (I believe we will not) then perhaps this could be the catalyst
> for us to go after Wall Street and alter the rules of trading forever.
> Americans deserve this, because of their blind faith in the free-market.
> Human beings left unchecked, always allow the greedy predators within
> them, to expoit and ravage the rest of the population. It's time
> to invest in infrastructure, build the manufacturing base, and eliminate
> most of the banking, the financing and the law sections of our society.
Those Who Write The Laws - Set The Rules.
The Others Are Just Opportunists.
Treat The Disease, Not The Symptoms.
First - I think one principal that can be used in many forms in this crisis is swapping debt for equity where ever possible (and it is certainly possible in more places than it is being used!). The basic play would be to reinstate (remodel, modify, etc) debt to the most senior creditor in an amount that is commercially reasonable to the new economic environment. For example - a mortgage would be set to "traditional" loan to values; a company to what ever the senior lenders are able to negotiate with other creditors. The creditors would be given warrants that would be sized and structured to make up the deficiency if the home (or company) is sold for more than the restructured debt.
Second - We need to get our brains around that idea that asset prices are subject to inflation too. Monetary supply is only one layer of the onion - the Fed would have done well to manage bank reserves more effectively and at least notice that off balance sheet structured finance was causing asset price inflation.
Third (and final for now). All public policy decisions should be weighed by two criteria - is it fair and is there moral hazard. Period.
If you keep reading I'll keep writing. Thanks for the comment.
On Aug 29 01:29 PM Suncatcher wrote:
> Ok, lets agree there is work to be done. Hopefully your next post
> will include the formula so I can roll up my sleeves and get to work
> with you. By the way, I have never been a typical consumer. I have
> always saved more than I make, and I only have borrowed to buy a
> house. Not bragging, just letting you know that to change my behavior
> would be to eat out never instead of four times a year. Waiting for
> suggestions.
Inform?
Here's the Clown consensus view. The rally is a government and Goldman conspiracy designed to sucker in the little guy so "they"- whoever "they" are - can get out.
Another Clown consensus. The rallly is fueled by "evil" government and "profligate" Fed stimulus that is pushing the US intothe abyss. The only and best thing todo here is own gold and short everything - except Hormel and Smith and Wesson since they make Clown essential items. (Guns and Spam)
Clowns don't like or need data. Facts are irrlevant to the Clowns. These consensus views are beliefs. Beliefs are held despite data and evidence. It is a little like a religion with the Clowns. Another word for clowns is "Beckistas". If you have ever listened to the Fox news presenter you will here a lot of his beliefs being parroted here.
Some data.
MZM as a % of Wilshire 5000 is still over 90%. In 2000 it got to below 40%.
Crowd Sentiment is according to Ned DAvis is about 63% bullish. 70% or more is the redline.
Money flows - in 2009 about $200 bill. has come out of moeny funds this comapres to a about net $500 bill that flowed in in 2008.
You decide.
Dracula99 -- Did you ever hear of "trade the market you have, not the one you want"? We have always had rule-breakers and crooks, it ain't gonna change!...There's just too much money involved. Of course we should punish the rule-breakers, and amend the rules where appropriate. But unfortunately, it will never be a perfect or level field for investments (whether they be pension funds, mutual funds, or the retail investor).
Clowns (and other conspiracy theorists) -- You claim "The rally is a government and Goldman conspiracy designed to sucker in the little guy, blah, blah, blah."
If this were again the 60s and 70s, when daily volumes were a tiny fraction of today's volumes, you MIGHT convince a few others. However, in the 21st century, the retail investor (i.e.; makes his own buy/sell decisions) is now a PIMPLE on today's share volumes. Goldman doesn't really care whether retail investors open an account there or not (in fact, they would rather they go to a discounter). Those hugh profits at GS are not made on the backs of the retail investor.
I can respect both bull and bear arguments with an investment rationale based on data points, trends, or past experience; but I reject all this other BS.
Lets face it. The United States is not going to be producing lots more menial jobs in the near nor far future. It is already an advanced country with an increasing population. Period, the US will be saddled with high unemployment rates for years and decades to come. Gone are the labor intensive industries such as farming, mining, manufacturing, etc. They are not coming back!
Now, that is a receipt for civil disobedience that can lead to civil wars among states. So the US will have to become more and more a socialist country. The government will have to provide more subsidies to the growing unemployed. Well, again for years and possibly several decades into the future until the US find a way to export more of it's highly skilled labor force into the developing countries as trainers and consultants and develop local industries more into health care as the majority of it's population enter their twilight years. No choice, can't stop aging.
Where will the government be able to find the money to subsidize such a growing unemployed ranks? Can't borrow forever, can they?
The government will have to strengthen it's existing industries that provides the bulk of it's income in the past in order for it to generate more income in the form of corporate taxes since tax collected from the employees have no possibility of getting a lot bigger and in fact will more likely shrink as more automated machines will be deployed by big corporations in order to compete with the cheap labor of China, Indonesia, India, Brazil, Africa, etc.
Thus the US will have to further develop it's strenght in the following fields:
- Military exports or what they call technology intensive high value exports. Can we just say continue to be the primary merchant of death on Earth? Keep it simple. But that is a dwindling source of income as the whole world gets greener-minded and populated by peace-loving young generation of God's creatures. Gone are the days of John Waynes' and Clint Eastwoods'. Except perhaps for the terrorists, but where are they now?
- Mega corporations such as McDo, Burget King, and the horde of global retailers with tentacles all over the world. Selling every imaginable "high value" products specially to aspiring middle and upper classes of the developing world.
They got the money and they wanted to live like the americans they saw on TV all those years of growing up? The US got the luxury goods necessary to adorn a high flying lifestyle such as big macs, nikes, jcpenneys, etc. Well, they are ordinary in the US but are still considered luxuries in the developing countries. The more money they've got, the more expensive US and European brands they will buy in the future.
They have cheap labor, we buy their no-brand products. They flood us with cheap goods and make pennies on each item; we make a dollar or ten profits on a few selected branded items. Fair enough?
- And more importantly = the MEGABANKS. They were the backbone of taxation for the government during the market meltdown of 2000-2002 and continued to contribute a major share to the government coffers during the bear market rally or fake rally of 2002 to 2007.
Now, they got creamed, don't they? Of course, in their haste to provide more money (tax) to the government while the US was getting entangled with an exceptionally expensive wars in Iraq and Afganistan; they overlook the risks involved and had to suffer the consequences.
But that is not the end of it. The government went to their rescue and stuff them with billions of dollars up to the gills. Billions or trillions they can lend to the developing countries all over the world "later" as they aspire to become developed countries like the US, Germany, and Japan.
They will have to learn how to use credit in order to become developed countries. And the US got VISA, Mastercard, and American Express. And the trillions of dollars needed by less fortunate countries such as India, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil, Africa, etc. Not to mention Eastern Europe, if they need american banking and financial assistance. America got a disproportionate amount of CASH in HAND in the world. Albeit borrowed from China and S. Arabia.
Now that the whole world is again starting to show signs of recovery (just look at China, India, Brazil, Russia, etc) and the slow and painful bear rallies in the US and Europe since March 2009. In general, the whole world is on the mend despite all the lingering problems.
It won't be long that companies in India, Indonesia, etc who would want to further expand their labor-intensive industries will require more banking and financial assistance, not to mention trade and insurance expertise from the Great Leader = The United States.
The most trusted country in the world = Uncle Sam. Borrow trillions of dollars from cash rich countries for 2-3% interest and loan those borrowed money to cash starve capitalists around the world at 5%?, 10%?, 15%? - - - got the picture?
OPM (Other People's Money) enabled the likes of Warren B. to become the richest person in the world. Many followed his footsteps and become successful too in their own endeavors.
Let's do more of what had been done better than before.
We are now in the process of implementing the big brother of OPM. I call it OCM (Other Countries' Money). That is where the BIG money is and the United States got all the best knowledge and experience (and the bad ones) in military, banking, insurance, finance and trade that will give assurance to the smaller countries of the world their investments are in the right hands. We are talking here of tens and possibly hundreds of trillions of dollars over the next several decades, not mere hundreds of billions.
That is where the money (tax) will be coming from in order for the US government to be able to function as a socialist entity and avoid a potential civil war or even avoid debasing the dollar and avoid becoming a banana republic.
------------------
On Aug 29 01:44 AM Suzanne H. wrote:
> Well, if nothing else, history has taught us that the leaders of
> the next bull market are not going to be financials, and especially
> not the ones garnering the most trading volume lately.
> Pain do you actually read the messages? Do you read your own? <br/>
>
> Inform?
>
> Here's the Clown consensus view. The rally is a government and Goldman
> conspiracy designed to sucker in the little guy so "they"- whoever
> "they" are - can get out.
>
> Another Clown consensus. The rallly is fueled by "evil" government
> and "profligate" Fed stimulus that is pushing the US intothe abyss.
> The only and best thing todo here is own gold and short everything
> - except Hormel and Smith and Wesson since they make Clown essential
> items. (Guns and Spam)
>
> Clowns don't like or need data. Facts are irrlevant to the Clowns.
> These consensus views are beliefs. Beliefs are held despite data
> and evidence. It is a little like a religion with the Clowns. Another
> word for clowns is "Beckistas". If you have ever listened to the
> Fox news presenter you will here a lot of his beliefs being parroted
> here.
>
> Some data.
>
> MZM as a % of Wilshire 5000 is still over 90%. In 2000 it got to
> below 40%.
>
> Crowd Sentiment is according to Ned DAvis is about 63% bullish. 70%
> or more is the redline.
>
> Money flows - in 2009 about $200 bill. has come out of moeny funds
> this comapres to a about net $500 bill that flowed in in 2008. <br/>
>
> You decide.
>
Interesting - I was hoping for a "Structural" Or "Systematic" response, yet you give me a "List of Statistics".
You can come to any conclusion if you limit the data to only that which supports your paradigm.
You did not even address the "Mark To Market" Coincidence nor The 12 Trillion - again interesting. (granted it was not directed to you, but it was in the next comment)
You would do better to divorce yourself from your apparent "Annoyance" and filter for "Action And Event". Things are not as stable as they may appear.
Tell me, have you heard of "The Presidents Working Group On Financial Markets" - do you know of their "Mandated Mission" or how they implement said mission. This is not fiction; this is fact. Implemented under Ronald Reagan.
Enjoy your "Sheltered" View of "Clowns" or enlighten yourself in the "Mechanics Of The Market" - It Is More than Just Statistics.
Not everything is "Conspiracy"; but to assert that none exist is mentally minuscule.
Safety Is A Function Of Awareness.
I hope you do well.
First, by Dec. 31st, we will have had a mild correction (<10%) in the major averages.
Second, both investors and the general population will be in a generally positive mood, having entered the traditional good-cheer mood surrounding Christmas, and knowing that both the most sticky lagging indicators -- employment and the housing market -- have improved (not recovered, but an improving trend).
Third, there will be a lot of positive press regarding 2010, as even the last holdout bears will admit we will have exited the recession and the economy is improving (even if slowly for 2010) -- its been a tough 2 years, people are ready to look ahead.
Now, your turn, you also said..."Why are you giving up on the ability of people to drastically change the rules. It has been done before on much larger scale than this. All it takes is a catalyst and incredible events can occur."...You tell us of the (realistic) catalyst you foresee that will cause people to "drastically change the rules".
fair comment...I would be very much interested in your view and perception of - positively speaking- what the history taught us..
best regards from switzerland
Marc
On Aug 29 01:44 AM Suzanne H. wrote:
> Well, if nothing else, history has taught us that the leaders of
> the next bull market are not going to be financials, and especially
> not the ones garnering the most trading volume lately.
Very simply, the leaders of the last bull market (in this case financials) will not be the leaders of the next bull market. Financials have been soaring, especially the ones with the highest level of short interest. That is just an example of a major short squeeze with bears capitulating.
On Sep 01 06:31 AM mje7777ch wrote:
> Dear Suzanne,
> fair comment...I would be very much interested in your view and perception
> of - positively speaking- what the history taught us..
>
> best regards from switzerland
>
> Marc
No, the rest of 2009 and probably at least 2010 and maybe even much longer will much more likely continue to see very rough economic times. The US stock market is much more likely to be a hugh roller coaster ride for at least several more years. Very significant market downside is much more likely than what is probably pretty limited upside from here.
On Aug 31 07:28 AM richjoy403 wrote:
> OK Dracula99 I'll bite on your question..."Any guesses on the next
> 3 months?"
>
> First, by Dec. 31st, we will have had a mild correction (<10%) in
> the major averages.
>
> Second, both investors and the general population will be in a generally
> positive mood, having entered the traditional good-cheer mood surrounding
> Christmas, and knowing that both the most sticky lagging indicators
> -- employment and the housing market -- have improved (not recovered,
> but an improving trend).
>
> Third, there will be a lot of positive press regarding 2010, as even
> the last holdout bears will admit we will have exited the recession
> and the economy is improving (even if slowly for 2010) -- its been
> a tough 2 years, people are ready to look ahead.
>
> Now, your turn, you also said..."Why are you giving up on the ability
> of people to drastically change the rules. It has been done before
> on much larger scale than this. All it takes is a catalyst and incredible
> events can occur."...You tell us of the (realistic) catalyst you
> foresee that will cause people to "drastically change the rules".