Stay Away from AIG - Barron's 71 comments
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Shares of AIG (AIG) have surged 53% in the last week, but Barron's Andrew Bary warns the stock's spectacular gains can't erase the fact that the company's likely to face continuing troubles.
The government has an 80% equity stake in the insurer and shares look overpriced. The current rally is likely a combination of a short squeeze, hope for a larger role for former CEO Hank Greenberg and optimism that a recovering market will help AIG's portfolio improve.
Given its complicated financials and limited communication from management, it's difficult for investors to evaluate the financial health of AIG. After backing out the government's $42B in preferred stock, AIG's common equity falls to $15B, or $21.80 per share. Stripping out $6.4B of goodwill assets and around $14B of a "prepaid commitment asset" connected to the government's backstop of AIG, Barron's calculates the company has negative tangible common shareholder equity.
Investors interested in AIG would do better to consider the company's debt, rather than its common stock. In particular, AIG has 8.25% bonds due in 2018 trading for around 80 cents on the dollar, for a yield of 11.84%. AIG also has junior subordinated debentures (AVF) that yield 13% and are senior to the government's preferred shares, though they rank below senior debt.
In early July, Joshua Shanker, then with Citigroup, wrote there was a "70% chance that the equity at AIG is zero" and cut his price target to $14.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Some more points to ponder:
- AIG shares took off largely due to comments by new CEO Robert Benmosche, who boldly promised to repay the government in full and still turn a profit for shareholders. However, the fact that AIG used $2.4B from recent asset sales to improve the capital position of its property-casualty unit rather than paying down some of the government debt raises questions about the insurer's ability to repay its bailout.
- Benmosche previously served as MetLife's (MET) chairman and CEO, and is still a MetLife shareholder. This could spell trouble for talks about a potential deal to sell AIG's Alico unit to MetLife.
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This article has 71 comments:
I am very sorry you did not invest into this stock when it was $1.00 or $20.00!
Now it is at $50.00, you only see the many ways you was wrong, it is unfair of you to talk down this stock today, because you missed out on it positive upward movement, please stop trying to bring it back down, because you lost out on many of thousands of dollars$$$!
Please tell me how many times you was right when the stock market was going down a couple of years ago, and please tell me how many of your listeninger saved there money because of you gave them correct advice???
Please stop your lossing ways of hating a stock that you was very wrong about.
This an a few other stocks can not fail and will not fail, only because they have the full faith of the u.s. government behind them.
Please leave your losing GOP hate at home, when you are giving out money investing advice.
clslrrj@yahoo.com
Robert Slaughter
Soon after Joshua Shanker, citigroup analyst, said that AIG was worthless the rally in AIG's stock took off. His analysis is responsible for stock rebound. Shorters of the stock took out loans to place bets that the stock would go lower. The demand for the stock to short caused a short squeeze which has continued to propel the stock as shorts continue to get squeezed as they continue to place bets that the stock is due to go lower soon.
To exasperate the angst of analysts is the increase in value to the stock based on investors genuine belief that AIG has value, and that it will be profitable in the future, I am one of those people. Many of the credit default swaps will be profitable in the future as interest rates turn and more importantly that the collateral debt oligations value start to increase in value as the real estate market stabilizes and credit markets continue to improve. The derivatives market aided AIG in showing a profit in the 2nd quarter.
I think AIG will be around for many years to come and they will eventually repay the government.
Tommiegun if you're a seasoned investor then you know a stock is valued for past & projected earnings. Not whether or not CDS will be profitable someday, hopefully, sometime down the road. That being said, AIG is extremely overvalued given their TTM and forward projected EPS. To say they were great b4 is no guarantee that they will be again. Its always a possibility but they certainly *aren't* now.
Even Benmosche himself has stated that AIG would not be able to repay the government even if they sold *absolutely everything*. Any company in any sector this heavily in debt would not be looked upon kindly by Wall Street or any investor as a good risk and would be highly speculative. Now to keep things in perspective, would you feel the same way about, say a tech company with that much debt?
Lastly, the only parasites in the AIG picture are the ones who were at the helm and took too much risk; surrounded by too much leverage. They had some great years and flourished when those risks paid off. This time, they were wrong and they have no one to blame for those risk-taking decisions but themselves. Blame Wall Street? Give me a break and take some responsibility.
You will never get a chance again to buy AIG at the current levels.
Compare AIG with FNM, FRE, MBI, ABK and C.
AIG is the best!
1. AIG is trading today at $2.50 pre-RS-split, i.e., $50 with $12.46 EPS for year 2010 and with book value per share at $430.
2. FNM is trading today at $2.04 with $-6.90 EPS for year 2010 and with book value per share at $-59.86.
3. FRE is trading today at $2.40 with $-2.85 EPS for year 2010 and with book value per share at $-88.95.
4. MBI is trading today at $6.50 with $0.20 EPS for year 2010 and with book value per share at $13.29.
5. ABK is trading today at $1.72 with $ -1.75 EPS for year 2010 and with book value per share at $-18.70.
6. C is trading at $5.23 with $0.09 EPS for year 2010 and with book value per share at $14.16.
Now the author of this article should tell us why one should stay away from AIG?
I won't be surprised if this article was published by a paid-basher/some-short.
Let's see how long my comment stays in this column. I can't believe this author has 1819 followers.
On Aug 29 05:22 PM Robert Slaughter wrote:
> Please tell me why you are playing down this stock today?
>
> I am very sorry you did not invest into this stock when it was $1.00
> or $20.00!
>
> Now it is at $50.00, you only see the many ways you was wrong, it
> is unfair of you to talk down this stock today, because you missed
> out on it positive upward movement, please stop trying to bring it
> back down, because you lost out on many of thousands of dollars$$$!
>
>
> Please tell me how many times you was right when the stock market
> was going down a couple of years ago, and please tell me how many
> of your listeninger saved there money because of you gave them correct
> advice???
>
> Please stop your lossing ways of hating a stock that you was very
> wrong about.
>
> This an a few other stocks can not fail and will not fail, only because
> they have the full faith of the u.s. government behind them.
>
> Please leave your losing GOP hate at home, when you are giving out
> money investing advice.
>
> clslrrj@yahoo.com
>
> Robert Slaughter
On Aug 29 05:42 PM tommiegun wrote:
> AIG is a victim of the parasites on wallstreet. AIG, prior to the
> meltdown, was the preminent insurance company of the world. The franchise
> is still highly respected by insurance industry insiders as a viable
> company. Some analyst mistake AIG as a trashed company and they are
> mistaken.
> Soon after Joshua Shanker, citigroup analyst, said that AIG was worthless
> the rally in AIG's stock took off. His analysis is responsible for
> stock rebound. Shorters of the stock took out loans to place bets
> that the stock would go lower. The demand for the stock to short
> caused a short squeeze which has continued to propel the stock as
> shorts continue to get squeezed as they continue to place bets that
> the stock is due to go lower soon.
> To exasperate the angst of analysts is the increase in value to the
> stock based on investors genuine belief that AIG has value, and that
> it will be profitable in the future, I am one of those people. Many
> of the credit default swaps will be profitable in the future as interest
> rates turn and more importantly that the collateral debt oligations
> value start to increase in value as the real estate market stabilizes
> and credit markets continue to improve. The derivatives market aided
> AIG in showing a profit in the 2nd quarter.
> I think AIG will be around for many years to come and they will eventually
> repay the government.
On Aug 29 05:22 PM Robert Slaughter wrote:
> Please tell me why you are playing down this stock today?
>
> I am very sorry you did not invest into this stock when it was $1.00
> or $20.00!
>
> Now it is at $50.00, you only see the many ways you was wrong, it
> is unfair of you to talk down this stock today, because you missed
> out on it positive upward movement, please stop trying to bring
> it back down, because you lost out on many of thousands of dollars$$$!
>
>
> Please tell me how many times you was right when the stock market
> was going down a couple of years ago, and please tell me how many
> of your listeninger saved there money because of you gave them correct
> advice???
>
> Please stop your lossing ways of hating a stock that you was very
> wrong about.
>
> This an a few other stocks can not fail and will not fail, only because
> they have the full faith of the u.s. government behind them.
>
> Please leave your losing GOP hate at home, when you are giving out
> money investing advice.
>
> clslrrj@yahoo.com
>
> Robert Slaughter
Second, The bond's are showing weakness that the company itself is struggling and looks like the company will not be able to pay its maturing debt which explains the bonds weakness. Now the preferreds is also showing weakness that the company is in very bad financial position. As you can tell it couldn't get past the 13.50's mark on both of its two biggest run up days in its common. As it closed at 12.00 dollars down from Thurdsays big gain in its common. Which is a sign that aigs prime crop of the company is selling out cause they know the existing value of the company is too high by atleast 35 percent for common at 50.26 making it less then 35. dollars is about the right trading value to current value.
Many very big wall street investors have been bullish on the market but have just recently came out and spoke bearish on Aig stating the very same facts.
More then 350,000 puts have been made in the last day on aig then calls of only 200,000 (rough figures). That is an indicator that the market knows this stock is way over bought by atleast 10 - 20 dollars.
Next, September is a bad month ahead and all the big investors are coming back to the market. So this stock will be greeted with a lot of downside pressure from them. Shorts will come back to aig pushing it lower, also the people that bought this stock at 30-40 dollars will sell their stakes in this upcoming month to take some profit, with that keep in mind that the few shares that can be sold and bought can travel quickly in a direction, And for those that will be selling to take profit in the next week or so will easily sling this stock down 5 dollars just them self and the people that just bought it or bought it when it was up the 5 dollars will pull out. Everyone will run to the exit door since this stock has high beta, and can fall just as fast as it went up.
So the final advice to all of the individual investors trying to make a little cash and think this stock is heading nothing but straight up from here be careful. It just takes one decent sized shareholder to cause aig's price to go down, and poss down below your price you baught it at.
Invest at your own risk.
Stock analysis of BH&D
So, it is your turn is either listen to them or do your own homework. I do mine and I never trust those analyzers.
Ciao.
Next time try something better.... Please do your DD and Research before you post...
On Aug 29 10:06 PM User 479177 wrote:
> Aig is worthless. For those who think this stock is going somewhere
> your madly mistaken. For a company that has far more debt then they
> could ever repay it spells broke...... Fundamentals now, 183 Billion
> in debt with interest of 6-8% equals around 11-14 billion a year.
> A YEAR that means they owe for this year 183+ 11-14 billion for this
> year to the government. And say they finally sell some assets that
> are worth total $11 billion for the year. YOu have to minus all the
> expenses that they have which are most likely around 1 billion making
> them only have maybe 10 billion. which is still not enough to pay
> back the interest. now they will owe 184billion + 12-15 billion next
> year on top. Also to further this topic by slowing down the selling
> of its assets means they will not be able to pay down that debt with
> the addition of the interest it will collect over the time. BIG FACTOR
>
> Second, The bond's are showing weakness that the company itself is
> struggling and looks like the company will not be able to pay its
> maturing debt which explains the bonds weakness. Now the preferreds
> is also showing weakness that the company is in very bad financial
> position. As you can tell it couldn't get past the 13.50's mark on
> both of its two biggest run up days in its common. As it closed at
> 12.00 dollars down from Thurdsays big gain in its common. Which is
> a sign that aigs prime crop of the company is selling out cause they
> know the existing value of the company is too high by atleast 35
> percent for common at 50.26 making it less then 35. dollars is about
> the right trading value to current value.
> Many very big wall street investors have been bullish on the market
> but have just recently came out and spoke bearish on Aig stating
> the very same facts.
> More then 350,000 puts have been made in the last day on aig then
> calls of only 200,000 (rough figures). That is an indicator that
> the market knows this stock is way over bought by atleast 10 - 20
> dollars.
> Next, September is a bad month ahead and all the big investors are
> coming back to the market. So this stock will be greeted with a lot
> of downside pressure from them. Shorts will come back to aig pushing
> it lower, also the people that bought this stock at 30-40 dollars
> will sell their stakes in this upcoming month to take some profit,
> with that keep in mind that the few shares that can be sold and bought
> can travel quickly in a direction, And for those that will be selling
> to take profit in the next week or so will easily sling this stock
> down 5 dollars just them self and the people that just bought it
> or bought it when it was up the 5 dollars will pull out. Everyone
> will run to the exit door since this stock has high beta, and can
> fall just as fast as it went up.
>
> So the final advice to all of the individual investors trying to
> make a little cash and think this stock is heading nothing but straight
> up from here be careful. It just takes one decent sized shareholder
> to cause aig's price to go down, and poss down below your price you
> baught it at.
>
> Invest at your own risk.
>
>
> Stock analysis of BH&D
SELL!!! BEFORE YOU LOOSE YOUR PANTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On Aug 30 12:01 AM User 479199 wrote:
> none of you know what the hell you are talking about. The bottom
> line is if the goverment owns 80% of the company and the goverment
> will not allow this company to fail so it will always be around.
> The goverment will make this company look profitable because its
> in their best interest. The goverment is the one that makes the tax
> laws and incentives for business's so if anything you have a conflict
> of interest here. AIG ,C,FNM,FRE,BAC will all make you money if you
> buy now. BOTTOM LINE
On Aug 29 11:42 PM User 479177 wrote:
> referring to worthless (macro) look is the big picture but to small
> picture present activity and to where it was traveling before this
> hype but false run up is why the statement about the stock should
> be less then the current price by 10-20 dollars (Micro) small picture.
> This is at the best value given for the stock, when and only when
> all things are going great for them. But the normal range aig should
> be in is atleast 40-50 dollars bellow current price. No one wants
> to be part of a company that is 80% ran by the government and with
> the large amount of debt 183 billion there is no way it will be paid
> back. To further put it, BIG PICTURE THE STOCK IS WORTHLESS!!!!!!!.
>
>
> SELL!!! BEFORE YOU LOOSE YOUR PANTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If anything buy BAC
SELL STRONG ON: C, FNM, FRE, AIG
Mostly sell strong on C...
Sell on C, MBI and ABK.
On Aug 30 12:25 AM User 479177 wrote:
> DO your homework Dell person, you'll read the bad news surrounding
> these companys the news that is covered up by money and media. <br/>
>
> If anything buy BAC
> SELL STRONG ON: C, FNM, FRE, AIG
> Mostly sell strong on C...
See us in a few weeks. Then tell us how you're glad you paid $50/share
AIG continus moving up even the market makes some poor correction.
AIG has no toxic assets everything is capital whatever sell it or own it (sell later worth more). It's capital is getting huge becaus it's giant company.
AIG is going to be the super star again.
My investment view on AIG:
Shot term (two weeks): $62.50
Intermediate term (6 months): 80.00 - 98.00
Long term (9 - 12 months): 115.00 - 126.00
Watch it!
(Just put it in your watch list)
On Aug 29 07:48 PM dell_stk wrote:
> 4AIG is the stock of the century! What are you guys talking?
> You will never get a chance again to buy AIG at the current levels.
>
> Compare AIG with FNM, FRE, MBI, ABK and C.
> AIG is the best!
> 1. AIG is trading today at $2.50 pre-RS-split, i.e., $50 with $12.46
> EPS for year 2010 and with book value per share at $430.
> 2. FNM is trading today at $2.04 with $-6.90 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $-59.86.
> 3. FRE is trading today at $2.40 with $-2.85 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $-88.95.
> 4. MBI is trading today at $6.50 with $0.20 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $13.29.
> 5. ABK is trading today at $1.72 with $ -1.75 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $-18.70.
> 6. C is trading at $5.23 with $0.09 EPS for year 2010 and with book
> value per share at $14.16.
>
> Now the author of this article should tell us why one should stay
> away from AIG?
> I won't be surprised if this article was published by a paid-basher/some-short.
>
>
> Let's see how long my comment stays in this column. I can't believe
> this author has 1819 followers.
It is a simple fact for all the talk about limiting too big to fail institutions, government has done nothing but let the too big to fail failures become even larger and a greater threat to the US' fundamental health and stability. I'd love to hear Geithner and Bernake explain why letting Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae get bigger when they ask for billions every quarter helps reduce systemic risk and fit with their promise to shrink them.
On Aug 30 02:59 AM Taymere wrote:
> That's like comparing doggie doo to; horse manure, pig poo, buffalo
> chips, etc... and then saying "see it's the BEST!" There is nothing
> on your list that I would touch with a 10' pole, except the senior
> debt were it appropriately priced.
barron's makes money shorting just about everything. they constantly appear to be shorting The United States of America!
While "Too big to fail" has been coined the primary reason Gov didnt let it fail was due to the Interests held by other governments who also own US dept, this is my summation on the company. I'm going to be watching closely for the volume and the price action in pre-market and post market Monday to determine where I will be starting my Short Sales;)
MM
While times are truly sad and yet again man has made a mess of our financial system Citi will survive and continue business afterall they did not become who they are by being stupid. Vikram Pandit and his team catches allot of crap unjustly, they have it right they are making the right moves at the right time (Yes, I am a shareholder I do believe in them and will ride it all the way out or lose my money)! I say hold your position in a few years you will be laughing all the way to the bank while the nay sayers are wondering what they missed!
On Aug 29 07:59 PM dracula99 wrote:
> Does anyone believe Citigroup will go bankrupt? There are powerful
> players in the US Government which will not allow that to happen
The government and all U.S. taxpayers are loaded with dept in a scheme engineered by the FED and other (central) banks.
You may do well being long these stocks but you better have an exit strategy as exits are far more important then entries. Maybe ask Bernanky wankie to share his exit strategy!!
On Aug 30 04:52 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:
> Regardless of whether AIG is worth the current prices, it certainly
> fits with the trend for everyone to flock wherever the government
> is dumping money because 1) there is a perception the government
> will keep dumping money to them regardless of prudence 2) these companies
> get unfair market support in which to railroad competition with 3)
> there is a lot of free funny money shoshing about there somewhere.
>
>
> It is a simple fact for all the talk about limiting too big to fail
> institutions, government has done nothing but let the too big to
> fail failures become even larger and a greater threat to the US'
> fundamental health and stability. I'd love to hear Geithner and Bernake
> explain why letting Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae get bigger when they
> ask for billions every quarter helps reduce systemic risk and fit
> with their promise to shrink them.
Everything that I write his strickley my opinion, and yes I do try not to make mistakes on spelling or composition, but I do lots of times.
The only real money going into AIG his yours and the government is giving them your tax dollars. It does'nt matter which account they tap into, it is still your tax dollar. If the government needs more they either print more or tax the AMERICAN CITIZENS, so either way we loose.
The U.S. Government is not in the manufactoring business, or are they? They don't make a profit for goods produced, so they can keep propping up companys that the overpaid executives failed to do. All this money is only being used to propup failed corporations balance sheets.
If any out there bought AIG @1.00 do what you need to do and don't look back, because the well will run dry and the dollar,?? it's like a dommino affect.
I hope I'm tottaly wrong.
This was a virus that was created to dissrail the econamy and know the creators of this virus are trying to find a vaccine
On Aug 29 10:06 PM User 479177 wrote:
> Aig is worthless. For those who think this stock is going somewhere
> your madly mistaken. For a company that has far more debt then they
> could ever repay it spells broke...... Fundamentals now, 183 Billion
> in debt with interest of 6-8% equals around 11-14 billion a year.
> A YEAR that means they owe for this year 183+ 11-14 billion for this
> year to the government. And say they finally sell some assets that
> are worth total $11 billion for the year. YOu have to minus all the
> expenses that they have which are most likely around 1 billion making
> them only have maybe 10 billion. which is still not enough to pay
> back the interest. now they will owe 184billion + 12-15 billion next
> year on top. Also to further this topic by slowing down the selling
> of its assets means they will not be able to pay down that debt with
> the addition of the interest it will collect over the time. BIG FACTOR
>
> Second, The bond's are showing weakness that the company itself is
> struggling and looks like the company will not be able to pay its
> maturing debt which explains the bonds weakness. Now the preferreds
> is also showing weakness that the company is in very bad financial
> position. As you can tell it couldn't get past the 13.50's mark on
> both of its two biggest run up days in its common. As it closed at
> 12.00 dollars down from Thurdsays big gain in its common. Which is
> a sign that aigs prime crop of the company is selling out cause they
> know the existing value of the company is too high by atleast 35
> percent for common at 50.26 making it less then 35. dollars is about
> the right trading value to current value.
> Many very big wall street investors have been bullish on the market
> but have just recently came out and spoke bearish on Aig stating
> the very same facts.
> More then 350,000 puts have been made in the last day on aig then
> calls of only 200,000 (rough figures). That is an indicator that
> the market knows this stock is way over bought by atleast 10 - 20
> dollars.
> Next, September is a bad month ahead and all the big investors are
> coming back to the market. So this stock will be greeted with a lot
> of downside pressure from them. Shorts will come back to aig pushing
> it lower, also the people that bought this stock at 30-40 dollars
> will sell their stakes in this upcoming month to take some profit,
> with that keep in mind that the few shares that can be sold and bought
> can travel quickly in a direction, And for those that will be selling
> to take profit in the next week or so will easily sling this stock
> down 5 dollars just them self and the people that just bought it
> or bought it when it was up the 5 dollars will pull out. Everyone
> will run to the exit door since this stock has high beta, and can
> fall just as fast as it went up.
>
> So the final advice to all of the individual investors trying to
> make a little cash and think this stock is heading nothing but straight
> up from here be careful. It just takes one decent sized shareholder
> to cause aig's price to go down, and poss down below your price you
> baught it at.
>
> Invest at your own risk.
>
>
> Stock analysis of BH&D
This is the reputation of Barron's.. Enjoy.
Barron's calls U.S. insurance giant AIG (AIG) a screaming buy, insisting last week's reactionary selloff was overdone. Shares hit a five-year low after a disclosure that AIG's auditors found "material weakness"
in the company's accounting systems, which forced it to boost a $1.6 billion writedown on its credit insurance to a whopping $5.2 billion. Investors worry that since the writedown only covered losses until the end of November, things could get worse once the books are adjusted to reflect an even-weaker December and Q1 2008.
Barron's suggests the worry is largely a big to-do over nothing, because the accounting loss is just that -- a book-based change based on complicated accounting conventions that will have little-to-no effect on the company's bottom line. The mark-to-market writedowns will make their way back into AIG's earnings over the coming years as the mortgage loans backing the CDOs pay down. In a recent analysis, the absolute worst pretax loss it could suffer on its $63 billion insurance portfolio is just $590 million, not much considering AIG's $104B market cap and book value of $42/share. At Friday's $45.50, shares trade for just 1.1x book value -- which should hit $46.87 by year-end. Bear in mind, shares traded for 4x book value less than ten years ago. Barron's says the stock could jump nearly 50%.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
AIG currently trading at $50=$2.50 pre-reverse split, so the stock really isn't trading very high at all. Not like when it was trading at those high levels that you told everyone to buy at in 2008!
Are you short or something?
On Aug 30 10:32 AM PANAMA JACK wrote:
> All of us can see that a nerve as been jiggled, with this article
> on AIG.
> Everything that I write his strickley my opinion, and yes I do try
> not to make mistakes on spelling or composition, but I do lots of
> times.
> The only real money going into AIG his yours and the government is
> giving them your tax dollars. It does'nt matter which account they
> tap into, it is still your tax dollar. If the government needs more
> they either print more or tax the AMERICAN CITIZENS, so either way
> we loose.
> The U.S. Government is not in the manufactoring business, or are
> they? They don't make a profit for goods produced, so they can keep
> propping up companys that the overpaid executives failed to do. All
> this money is only being used to propup failed corporations balance
> sheets.
> If any out there bought AIG @1.00 do what you need to do and don't
> look back, because the well will run dry and the dollar,?? it's like
> a dommino affect.
> I hope I'm tottaly wrong.
> This was a virus that was created to dissrail the econamy and know
> the creators of this virus are trying to find a vaccine
With all the smoke and mirrors the SEC and the government has permitted to prop up the banks and AIG it's anyone's guess what AIG is worth or not worth. AIGs last financial statement said that it made a profit, but a look under the hood said otherwise.
On Aug 30 11:02 AM greenegggs wrote:
> You might want to explain why Barron was telling everyone to buy
> buy buy buy AIG in 2008 before it crashed, now you are bearish after
> you cost so many people money from listening to you?
>
> AIG currently trading at $50=$2.50 pre-reverse split, so the stock
> really isn't trading very high at all. Not like when it was trading
> at those high levels that you told everyone to buy at in 2008! <br/>
>
> Are you short or something?
Also, has anyone looked at another unknown financial FFED ? First Fed has been on the ropes for 12 months trading at 44 cents? Any thoughts on them?
On Aug 29 05:22 PM Robert Slaughter wrote:
> Please tell me why you are playing down this stock today?
>
> I am very sorry you did not invest into this stock when it was $1.00
> or $20.00!
>
> Now it is at $50.00, you only see the many ways you was wrong, it
> is unfair of you to talk down this stock today, because you missed
> out on it positive upward movement, please stop trying to bring it
> back down, because you lost out on many of thousands of dollars$$$!
>
>
> Please tell me how many times you was right when the stock market
> was going down a couple of years ago, and please tell me how many
> of your listeninger saved there money because of you gave them correct
> advice???
>
> Please stop your lossing ways of hating a stock that you was very
> wrong about.
>
> This an a few other stocks can not fail and will not fail, only because
> they have the full faith of the u.s. government behind them.
>
> Please leave your losing GOP hate at home, when you are giving out
> money investing advice.
>
> clslrrj@yahoo.com
>
> Robert Slaughter
now we are...
I personallly never owned AIG it allways appeared too rich for me.
I certainly never shorted that stock or any other stock for that matter.FYI
But it appears that you might have been exposed to the virus.
On Aug 30 11:02 AM greenegggs wrote:
> You might want to explain why Barron was telling everyone to buy
> buy buy buy AIG in 2008 before it crashed, now you are bearish after
> you cost so many people money from listening to you?
>
> AIG currently trading at $50=$2.50 pre-reverse split, so the stock
> really isn't trading very high at all. Not like when it was trading
> at those high levels that you told everyone to buy at in 2008! <br/>
>
> Are you short or something?
However, *I* would buy puts, not go short, because shares are difficult to borrow.
Good trading to all. :-)
On Aug 30 02:26 PM kaisersoze wrote:
> No matter what your view of the fundamentals and/or propects of AIG,
> anyone that has enjoyed the run up in this name is a fool for not
> taking some (or all) of that profit off the table.
2) why was AIG allowed to do a 20-1 split on the PPS? to make it more attractive for buyers?
3) why are short shares so expensive or not available? perhaps because the government is so highly invested in AIG that they refuse to loose their money?
4) many large financial institutions went less than $1 in PPS...some survived and some didnt. at this point the ones that survived aren't going to dissapear.
5) there is an obvious rally in financials in case some of you havent noticed.
there are a number or things going on with this stock that clues in wise investors to where its going. dont miss the boat.
Forget about the stock it doesn't matter, but would you keep your life insurance policy or annuity with them? If you had a whole life policy with a significant cash value or even a term policy with none would you AIG as the company that was supposed to pay the claim?
On Aug 30 04:52 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:
> Regardless of whether AIG is worth the current prices, it certainly
> fits with the trend for everyone to flock wherever the government
> is dumping money because 1) there is a perception the government
> will keep dumping money to them regardless of prudence 2) these companies
> get unfair market support in which to railroad competition with 3)
> there is a lot of free funny money shoshing about there somewhere.
>
>
> It is a simple fact for all the talk about limiting too big to fail
> institutions, government has done nothing but let the too big to
> fail failures become even larger and a greater threat to the US'
> fundamental health and stability. I'd love to hear Geithner and Bernake
> explain why letting Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae get bigger when they
> ask for billions every quarter helps reduce systemic risk and fit
> with their promise to shrink them.
All the short sellers need is a strong endorsement of AIG by the idiot cramer.
It was amazing to see AIG had 20:1 reverse split then. Was it a scheme to attract more shorts, BTW they are not smarter than longs, and to have a run when time is right such as now?
Both America and AIG are in much different situation in a modern history. New US Government and AIG management have his work cut out for them, and it may be an impossible task. Taken everything into consideration, the worst thing we can do is nothing.
Major AIG shareholders are American taxpayers. When AIG recovers, we will enjoy benefits for years to come. Money is already on a table. If we are going through Hell, keeps going.
Given how well management and government have navigated turbulent waters so far, it probably will. It's a bold move for both the Fed and for AIG so far. Every action has its consequences and I strongly believe that America and AIG have everything in place with their best intentions for better.
For the best interests of America, support our government to turn AIG and our country around. If there is anything you can do to help, do it. By the end of 2010, both America and AIG are ready for domination and global growth again.
No Pain No Glory. My heart today is bursting with gratitude.
My worry with AIG, is he government at some point forego's its stake...... We've done it all sorts of other things.. I would not be surprised to see some sort of deal cut that releases AIG from its US debt obligations under some complex arrangement.....
On Aug 30 05:33 PM ECHealthInsurance wrote:
> I have a more interesting story to post about this, we are a life
> and health insurance agency in Florida, and we received a letter
> from the department of insurance in Florida warning us not to replace
> our AIG policies or risk license suspension.
> Forget about the stock it doesn't matter, but would you keep your
> life insurance policy or annuity with them? If you had a whole life
> policy with a significant cash value or even a term policy with none
> would you AIG as the company that was supposed to pay the claim?
Even modest inflation might do the trick, as the value of debt declines relative to assets held on book.
On Aug 29 06:39 PM Ames Tiedeman wrote:
> Stay as far away from this name as possible. It has been bid up by
> uneducated retail investors and short covering. Do the math. Negative
> tangible equity means the common is worth ZERO!
and in good shape. The DFS just does not want greedy agents 'twisting' policies. However, AIG common stock has little intrinsic value.
On Aug 30 05:33 PM ECHealthInsurance wrote:
> I have a more interesting story to post about this, we are a life
> and health insurance agency in Florida, and we received a letter
> from the department of insurance in Florida warning us not to replace
> our AIG policies or risk license suspension.
> Forget about the stock it doesn't matter, but would you keep your
> life insurance policy or annuity with them? If you had a whole life
> policy with a significant cash value or even a term policy with none
> would you AIG as the company that was supposed to pay the claim?
On Aug 29 05:22 PM Robert Slaughter wrote:
Essentially...
> I am very sorry you did not invest into this stock when it was $1.00 > or $20.00! Now it is at $50.00, you only see the many ways you was wrong, it is unfair of you to talk down this stock today, because you missed out on it positive upward movement, please stop trying to bring it back down, because you lost out on many of thousands of dollars$$$!
...Please stop your lossing ways of hating a stock that you was very
wrong about. This an a few other stocks can not fail and will not fail, only because they have the full faith of the u.s. government behind them. Please leave your losing GOP hate at home, when you are giving out money investing advice.
On Aug 30 05:33 PM ECHealthInsurance wrote:
> I have a more interesting story to post about this, we are a life
> and health insurance agency in Florida, and we received a letter
> from the department of insurance in Florida warning us not to replace
> our AIG policies or risk license suspension.
> Forget about the stock it doesn't matter, but would you keep your
> life insurance policy or annuity with them? If you had a whole life
> policy with a significant cash value or even a term policy with none
> would you AIG as the company that was supposed to pay the claim?
On Aug 29 07:48 PM dell_stk wrote:
> 4AIG is the stock of the century! What are you guys talking?
> You will never get a chance again to buy AIG at the current levels.
>
> Compare AIG with FNM, FRE, MBI, ABK and C.
> AIG is the best!
> 1. AIG is trading today at $2.50 pre-RS-split, i.e., $50 with $12.46
> EPS for year 2010 and with book value per share at $430.
> 2. FNM is trading today at $2.04 with $-6.90 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $-59.86.
> 3. FRE is trading today at $2.40 with $-2.85 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $-88.95.
> 4. MBI is trading today at $6.50 with $0.20 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $13.29.
> 5. ABK is trading today at $1.72 with $ -1.75 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $-18.70.
> 6. C is trading at $5.23 with $0.09 EPS for year 2010 and with book
> value per share at $14.16.
>
> Now the author of this article should tell us why one should stay
> away from AIG?
> I won't be surprised if this article was published by a paid-basher/some-short.
>
>
> Let's see how long my comment stays in this column. I can't believe
> this author has 1819 followers.
There now, ... everyone should be happy.
whoops .... you mean there's more??
Bernstein downgrades AIG to Underperform with a price target of $10
"The firm says using 3-part valuation model, they can examine why they think AIG's current stock price allows very little chance for uncertainty, and fails to corporate considerable downside risk potential. Analyzing AIG has been extremely difficult over the last 18 months. We have tried to organize this analysis as best we can, but there is still considerable uncertainty. The firm says while they obviously would not recommend owning AIG here, actively shorting the stock is a different matter. AIG is not a normal company at present. Firm notes it is now very lightly followed by institutional analysts and investors, and has become fodder for endless rounds of media and blog speculation. This suggests that the normal factors that might move a stock may not apply here."
There are many, many more companies out there folks that offer true value. If you're looking for a Holy Grail, this isn't it.