With a gain of nearly 7% this month, the Nasdaq is on pace for its best month since January 2012, and its best July since 2010. With a big gain in hand, what does August have in store for the index? Going back to 1971, the Nasdaq has averaged a gain of 0.2% during the month of August, which ranks as the third worst month of the year behind September (-0.62%) and ironically enough July (+0.03%).
(click to enlarge)Breaking down the numbers a little further, we also looked to see how the Nasdaq performed during the month of August when the index was up more than 10% through the end of July. Since 1971, there have been 20 months that fit this criteria. In the August that followed each of these periods, the Nasdaq averaged a gain of 0.88% with positive returns 65% of the time. That compares to an average decline of 0.63% during the month of August when the Nasdaq is down or up less than 10% year to date through the end of July.