Durable goods orders for July fell 2.4% from June which was revised higher from 2.9% up to 3.5%.
In the chart below, we have highlighted the six month average year/year change for this indicator going back to 1960. As the chart details, based on this measure, durable goods orders appear to have peaked in March 2006 at a rate of 12%.
This report seems to have something for both the bears and the bulls. Bulls will argue that this is just one more reason why the Fed should pause so the economy can have a soft landing just like in 1995 (as noted above). Bears on the other hand, will contend that while this is not nearly as reliable an indicator as the yield curve, more often than not, once the downside momentum kicks in, a recession is not far behind.