Beer, Batteries, and a Solar Power Game Changer

You may not realize this, but "the next big thing" is where it always is: right under your own nose. Because let's face it: "the next big thing" never springs from a vacuum. Instead, it comes from what is already surrounding us. The problem is most investors just don't realize it at the time.

How else can you explain the chorus of doubters that couldn't see what the personal computer would become in the 80s or the internet in the 90s? Yet there they both were, hidden in plain sight.

Fortunately for us, most entrepreneurs aren't exactly wired like most retail investors. They take risks, never knowing for sure whether the dream will end in the Promised Land or at the bottom of a cliff. Even still, they continue to pursue the dream.

In reality, it takes another development in a related industry to ultimately create the boom. After all, it took huge advances in chip technology to build a phone that can fit in your pocket; to put a laptop computer on your desk. In other words, it always takes a certain amount of synergy to produce the next game-changer. . . and when that happens, barriers fall by the wayside.

For investors, this means looking at how all of the parts might fit together, delivering the next block-buster product or winning trade. So where are the scattered pieces today that are going to deliver the next big investment of tomorrow?

They are found all over the place in solar power stocks. All you have to do is look.

Bullish on Solar Power Stocks

T

here is a bona fide revolution going on in solar power. And it's the kind of movement that is quickly beginning to disconnect the industry from the chains have that have shackled it to fossil fuels.

What's missing has been enough synergy to put it over the top. . . until now.

That's where, in a twisted path, beer comes in. You may or may not know it, but the Coors family makes batteries along with their ice-cold brew.

And for the last 10 years, the descendents of Adolph Coors have been working with scientists to develop a new generation of batteries that is small enough and safe enough to power your home-something of a holy grail for anyone looking to go "off-grid."

Paired with solar power, it's the definition of a game-changer. After all, who needs a "smart grid" when there is actually less power to transmit?

Battery Technology and Solar Synergy

Developed by Ceramatec, a subsidiary of CoorsTek (formerly part of Coors, now private), the new generation of battery can store 40kw of power in a package the size of a refrigerator for roughly $2,000. The average American household, meanwhile, uses 33kw. In short, it's a battery big enough to power your home operating at a peak temperature of 90 degrees.

Conversely, the lead acid batteries available today are a toxic stew of chemicals that operate at temperatures over 350 degrees. On top of that, they deliver half the performance at nearly double the cost.

Additionally, the Ceramtec battery can be recharged through 3,650 cycles — or once a day — for 10 years. Deep-cycling lead acid batteries last less than two years.

And while the implications of such a battery may not be readily apparent to you, the larger reality is these batteries make "the great disconnect" a real possibility as more and more homes go off grid using wind or solar power.

"Batteries and PV (photovoltaic) are about to merge," said MIT's Daniel Nocera, a member of Ceramatec's science advisory board. "First Solar is now saying that it takes $1 a peak watt to manufacture, and another 80 cents for installation. So they're saying that you can get PV for under $2 a watt. That's a reduction of cost by a factor of four. Only a few years ago, it was $8. If CoorsTek and Ceramatec come up with a good battery, the market will develop quickly."

When that happens, it will absolutely snowball. Safe power storage is what makes it all possible.

As for the batteries themselves, CoorsTek is only about six months away from producing a commercial product with a realistic schedule of delivering 1 million batteries a year.

"Once we have a working prototype battery with all the standards and cost requirements met, it will come up quickly," said Grover Coors. "It would scare people to know how quickly we can bring this up."

So while some may still have a hard time taking solar seriously in light of falling crude prices, their math may cause them miss the boat. Solar power, it now seems, is ready to leave the harbor. And when it does. . . it will have little or nothing to do with crude. Instead, it will be all about the synergy. After all, that's what ultimately delivers "the next big thing."

As for stocks, I like First Solar Inc. (FSLR) and Yingli Green (YGE) as a way to invest in these unstoppable trends.

Disclosure: No Positions

Comments

[predictorma...:]

I like YGE also, having already bought and sold it a few times, and I will buy again after the anticipated (by me) market pull back.

If you (the author, or any readers) agree with these ideas (I do) you should check out SATC, whose power invertors will be a big part of this (solar is DC, and you mostly need to use AC, and invertors change it).

SATC has done well all year is is possibly poised to take off.

Aug 31 11:36 AM

[Stevefoder:]

The article has a glaring error.

"40kw of power in a package the size of a refrigerator for roughly $2,000. The average American household, meanwhile, uses 33kw."

The term should be KW-HR. A KW is a kilowatt which is power or the rate of energy use at a particular moment in time.

KW-HR is energy.

The difference is critical. To be taken seriously a forum on energy use one needs to understand the difference.

Aug 31 11:54 AM

[robdoc:]

I am very excited about the potential for solar, and I agree with you about the synergy that most probably will occur in order to propel solar forward.

I wonder though where you got the information about the battery that you are talking about.

Where you state a variety of very compelling stats about the battery the quote form Mr Coors speaks for itself:

"Once we have a working prototype battery with all the standards and cost requirements met, it will come up quickly," said Grover Coors. "It would scare people to know how quickly we can bring this up."

The entire premise of your article falls apart with this one quote. While you state impressive stats Mr. Coors states that there is not currently a working prototype.

Do you have more information or a source that ties this all together?

Aug 31 12:24 PM

[manuel:]

Q cells in Germany is trading at their march lows, 10 Euros, 2 times 10 Euro was the price of support, Q cells is the First Solar in Europe......, technically is has the best opportunities among Solar Player for a Big rebound

Aug 31 12:40 PM

[john s. gordon:]

ceramics and coors.
when old man adolph was prospecting for gold in the 1850's at golden CO he found no gold, but there was a deposit of fire clay. he happened to be knowledgeable in ceramics.
knowing that the assay office needed a steady supply of crucibles to do their work he notified all his relatives in germany to come on over & help run the crucible factory.
when you're baking porcelain all day you develop a pretty good thirst, and that led to establishment of the brewery.
when i was a high school student in denver in 1943 i bought my crucibles from the denver fire clay company, a related firm.
for many years the brewing company refused to pasteurize their product, as it caused a loss of flavor. so you couldn't buy it east of st.louis. in the 1960's i flew back & forth frequently from new jersey to the mountain & coast regions, and always brought back a few sixpacks for my friends to enjoy.
> jack

Aug 31 12:48 PM

[mlongj:]

What an interesting article. That is definitely connecting the dots!

Aug 31 06:13 PM

[A Barrel Full:]

I cannot find any reference to Batteries on either Coortek or Ceramatec websites. The link you give in the article does not mention either company.

Domestic electricity storage would revolutionise the energy sector, allowing distributed generation and night time storage. The problem is that nobody has got the cost down enough yet.

Unless a link or two can be added to the article, I will conclude that the jury is still out.

Sep 01 01:58 AM

[Pierre:]

I'm still trying to find those famous $1 x watt cells to buy them. It seems to me that that price is not available to the public. Until it is it should not be publicized in that way.
I'm losing some money in solar stocks and I'm growing tired of it.

Sep 01 08:50 AM

[jerrydd:]

A terrible article with much wrong or lack of info.

His info on lead batteries is completely wrong as the die over 120F and these style home off grid batteries last 10 yrs.

Next is his comment homes will go offgrid which is not the smart way to go as whom are you going to sell your extra output to? And what is your back up going to be?

And he doesn't even give what tech the Coors batteries are.

Probably the best battery for this is sodium that is well known both for homes and trucks, utilities, trains as GE is working on and Zebra produces now.

Just because speculators overbuy solar, etc does not mean they are not viable, just they are in a bubble. Many battery companies are in this now with too many of them for their market size and too many are bad to scams like Exide, Axion, EEStor. If you are in these get out now and beat the rush.

Sep 01 09:39 AM

[Dave K.:]

Don't forget the charger and inverter to convert the DC from the battery to AC for the home. This has always been a major expense. Add another $10,000 to $20,000 for the inverter to power an average home without an electric stove, no electric cloths dryer or air conditioner. Add even more to support those items. Only off grid people would be interested.
Dave

Sep 01 10:42 AM

[Wisdom vs. ...:]

Jerry is right, terrible. how many batteries are in development right now? i lost count six months ago, until one of them actually does what its promoter says, the hype is irrelevant. worse, the prices the author is quoting for solar installations is WHOLESALE

Sep 01 10:45 AM

[Living4Divi...:]

Good post. I'm seeing more and more posts on the BEER INDUSTRY. Is this the sign of America's "new economy" ?

Dr Marc Faber, who was speaking tongue in cheek, said that beer is part of America's new economy, in June 08, Faber said:

"The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer/Software it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I've been doing my part."

Sep 01 11:58 AM

[Solar Guru:]

Have you studied another company by Deeya Energy ? It is new form of flow battery which reduces the cost of roundtripping energy even further. This is a Freemont based US company based on Ferrous Oxide as the electrolyte. The final winner probably is the solution which reduces the cost of storage and delivery of power ( round tripping!) and that is where flow batteries will score better.

Solar Guru

Sep 01 12:53 PM

[Steve Pluvia:]

Ridiculous article riddled with misleading and false information, specifically:

1. Ridiculous Comment No. 1:

**"First Solar is now saying that it takes $1 a peak watt to manufacture, and another 80 cents for installation. So they're saying that you can get PV for under $2 a watt.**

First Solar has NEVER said they could deliver an installed PV system for $2/watt (the best in industry PV installed costs are closer to $3/watt +/-.25cents and ONLY FSLR can achieve this number).

2. Ridiculous Comment No. 2:

**"Developed by Ceramatec, a subsidiary of CoorsTek (formerly part of Coors, now private), the new generation of battery can store 40kw of power in a package the size of a refrigerator for roughly $2,000."**

All of the battery storage technology discussed is BS "pie-in-the-sky". There are no prototypes and there is no manufacturing for this battery. No prototype and no manufacturing = no product and absolutely no idea of costs.

3. Ridiculous comment No. 3:

**After all, who needs a "smart grid" when there is actually less power to transmit?**

You need smart grid to manage all of the new power sources; new power and storage INCREASES (not decreses) the need for smart grid.

Based on the author's limited understanding of this sector, he is not qualified to write on the subject.

Sep 01 01:31 PM

[Rick Krementz:]

The author seems mightily confused.

1) lead acid batteries cannot work at 350 deg.

2) a well designed lead acid battery system last about 10 years

3) the patents at the Ceramatec site talk about hot batteries, not ambient temperatures

4) Without a discussion of the technology plus the comment that there is no prototype means this is snake oil (or hot air if you prefer)

5) There is a huge amount of battery development going on: NaS, PbC, Li-ion, Al, (to name just a few), plus many other energy storage technologies, such as NH3, flywheels, ultracapacitors, CAES, underground pumped hydro, dynamic hydro, etc. Ignoring all these and making an erroneous comparison with > 100 year old technology is ridiculous. Sorta like comparing hypersonic planes ("coming soon, but no prototype yet") with ox-carts.

Sep 01 01:31 PM

[Alphameister:]

Love the long-term outlook for the solar and battery industries, though picking the winners in two highly competitive industries won't be easy. Given current excess capacity in solar and horrible technicals for the sector, prudent investors would be well advised to be patient before placing major bets here.

Sep 01 03:29 PM

[energyinvestor:]

If the EEStor Electrical Energy Storage Unit works (and we will know withing a couple of months), this research will be obsolete. But the writer is correct that energy storage will be the enabler that unlocks the true potential of wind and solar power - of the two I prefer solar.

Sep 01 04:18 PM

[Steve Pluvia:]

If the Eestor unit works, Santa Claus can retire Rudolfo's red nose, and I'll start selling gold eggs from my duck's butt. Zenn Motors has ridden Eestor like a $10 hooker, resulting in the following joke:

Q. What's the difference between Zenn Motors and a Hooker?

A. Zenn pumps Eestor to sell stock, a hooker just rides ....

energyinvestor wrote:

> If the EEStor Electrical Energy Storage Unit works (and we will know
> withing a couple of months), this research will be obsolete.

Sep 01 05:31 PM