Another Confirmation of China's Not-So-Miracle Growth

Electricity was not the only economic statistic not controlled / calculated by the Chinese government that showed that the 6% plus GDP growth in the first six months of 2009 (at a time when the global economy was sliding off the cliff) was an accounting miracle.

Guangshen Railway announced its results a few days ago for the first six months of 2009: “tonnage of freight transported by the Company amounted to 26.5406 million tonnes (2008 interim: 34.5508 million tonnes).” – a decline of 23%.

Comments

[one eye:]

Not surprising considering the concentration of H1N1 infections along China's Port Cities, A june, 2009 map is available showing the spread. GS expects Chinese 3rd qtr growth to be above 9%, Bloomberg late nite.

The Map is available, just look for Swine Flu Daily, one of my Instas, click any link.

It also explains the Logjam of "floating" inventory. They take Swine flu seriously.

Sep 01 09:59 AM

[Mark Bern:]

Another logical explanation is that since the Chinese government controls, not only central planning of the economy, by all communications, news media and economic reporting, the "official" reports from the government say what leadership wants them to say regardless of the truth. While this is obvious, what may not be so obvious to the masses of American sheeple is that much of what is fed to us by the MSM seems to be vetted by powers that support whatever the current Administration suggests. This is all too reminiscent of the USSR propaganda machine.

Unfortunately, it is all beginning to feel just a little bit too familiar here at home in the good ole USSA!

Sep 01 10:08 AM

[one eye:]

You have to remember that Chinese Health Authorities Did report 2 cases of death by Bubonic Plague, they had another seriously ill and that was the last item I ever saw on it. Japan and China are really Hyper on The Flu. Maybe they have had unreported Bad experiences in the Past?

Sep 01 10:33 AM

[HaavBline:]

Yet another meaningless attempt to apply microscoptic view to a far bigger picture. This also happens to be an extreme example!

If you know where Guangshen Railway is located. You would know that this is by far the ONE piece of infrastructure that is most affected by the export industry and little exposure to domestic growth.

Sep 01 11:28 AM

[Susan Weerts:]

Another confirmation is the inventory of petroleum products. China is supposed into the strongest seasonal demands for diesel. Instead of the diesel inventory drawback, China had unseasonal diesel buildup. Despite PMI indicted strong manufacturing activities, there are little signs of long haul trucking activities.
seekingalpha.com/insta...

Sep 01 12:20 PM

[one eye:]

Thank you Susan, with people coming together and sharing Info from different angles, one can get a better view of the overall picture.

I have to write this down or print it out for future reference.

Sep 01 12:41 PM

[expat in China:]

Yes it was me who called the end to the war in bosnia!

yes i say that the poor people wagons where open and the poeple missing

and Ical the end to the war on the american people by the fed

The world must change Obama is a joke turn to me;

I am you savoir a white Canadian who knows hoe to really change the world!

john

Sep 01 12:45 PM

[expat in China:]

lol

Sep 01 12:47 PM

[doubleshortetf:]

China is notorious for corruption and the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) ignoring and bending the rules to weasel out of bad financial bet.

This sentence from the Reuters article (link below) captured the unfair game the Chinese CCP and SOEs resort to:

"It's like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won't pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association.

www.reuters.com/articl...

Beijing's derivative default stance rattles banks

* State-owned firms may default on commodity hedges - report

* Bankers dismayed, confused by report; seek more details

* Lawyers question legality of the move

* Traders suspect lurking losses may have prompted warning (Adds analysts comments)

Yep just walk away from bad bet SOEs (state owned company) made on hedging. Talk about bunch of sissies...

This is the government you China fans "invest" in where the corrupt CCP changes rules in blatant mockery of international law.

Sep 01 12:59 PM

[doubleshortetf:]

What goes up comes down, really.

The Shanghai market has already lost roughly 25% from its recent peak, and it took just three weeks to lose what required roughly three months to put on.

Dejavu pre Beijing Olympics meltdown last year...

Sep 01 01:03 PM

[doubleshortetf:]

Take note from Times aptly titled "Why China's Stock Market Bubble Is Fizzling" fresh off the "press".

www.time.com/time/worl...


Here is another dose of reality by Chinese people fondness and penchant for gambling:

"the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are dominated by retail investors driven to frenzy by speculation and sentiment. "

Yet just the kind a market I want to go long now...

Sep 01 04:08 PM

[HaavBline:]

You depend on Time Magazine to provide investment ALPHA?


On Sep 01 04:08 PM doubleshortetf wrote:

> Take note from Times aptly titled "Why China's Stock Market Bubble
> Is Fizzling" fresh off the "press".
>
> www.time.com/time/worl...
>
>
> Here is another dose of reality by Chinese people fondness and penchant
> for gambling:
>
> "the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are dominated by retail investors
> driven to frenzy by speculation and sentiment. "
>
> Yet just the kind a market I want to go long now...

Sep 02 02:40 AM

[Jiang Nan:]

I wonder how effective is the efficiency drive / initiative that China is embarking on?

China industries was notorious for its energy inefficiency, could it be that they are actually making better use of energy now?

Sep 02 07:17 AM

[Tony Daltorio:]

Another one from one of the "professional" China haters on Seeking Alpha.

Much of the drop in the electricity number you quote for China is due to increased energy efficiency in China. China's industries were notoriously energy inefficient and that is slowly improving.

Maybe the US should go down the same path toward increased energy efficiency too?

Maybe next time the author should dig a little deeper into the "facts".

Sep 02 01:47 PM

[Vitaliy Kat...:]

Alright, I have to reply to this.

Sep 02 11:42 PM

[Vitaliy Kat...:]

Dear Tony,

China did not suddenly become energy efficient in two quarters (first and second quarters of 2009), coincidently at the same time when global economy went into recession and its exports collapsed. The same was as it did not suddenly turn energy inefficient in the third quarter of 2009 when its massive stimulus packaged kicked in.

I have no reason to hate China and I DON’T hate China. I am an investor who is looking at investing landscape and trying to identify risks.

Vitaliy

Sep 02 11:49 PM

[Noah's ark:]

Relax, and show some numbers to back up your claims.


On Sep 02 01:47 PM Tony Daltorio wrote:

> Another one from one of the "professional" China haters on Seeking
> Alpha.
>
> Much of the drop in the electricity number you quote for China is
> due to increased energy efficiency in China. China's industries were
> notoriously energy inefficient and that is slowly improving.
>
> Maybe the US should go down the same path toward increased energy
> efficiency too?
>
> Maybe next time the author should dig a little deeper into the "facts".

Sep 03 01:54 AM