Sirius XM Price Target Raised by Top Media Analyst 98 comments
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By Brandon Matthews
Senior media and entertainment analyst of Standard & Poor’s U.S. Equity Research Services Tuna Amobi has raised his price target on Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) shares to $1.00 from his previous target of $.50, while cutting his projected 2009 loss estimates in half and projecting a full year profit for Sirius XM Radio in 2010. All of this while maintaining its HOLD rating.
“With recent signs of some auto OEM stabilization likely further outweighed by continued anemic retail trends, we see about 18.2M and 18.0M subscribers by ‘09 and ‘10 end, respectively (vs. ’08’s 19.0M), considering cash-for-clunkers and iPhone app. SIRI seems to have weathered near-term financing hurdles, though probably not fully dissipated. Factoring $750M of new senior notes (partly on refi), we narrowed ‘09 loss per share est by $0.08 to $0.08, see $0.01 EPS for ‘10 (vs. $0.06 loss), and we raise our EV/Sales target price by $0.50 to $1, noting $7B of net operating losses.”
Mr. Amobi was one of the first analysts to go out on a limb and forecast a price increase from .34 to .50, which SIRI shares were able to reach months prior to Mr. Amobi’s 12 month prediction. With the industry’s foremost media analyst now predicting a $1.00 share price, Sirius XM Radio investors can perhaps breathe a little easier.
Position: Long SIRI
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Congratulations in advance for your genius market timing...I wish they would do this reverse split...I have close to 90,000 shares! I wouldnt mind those shares doing a reverse split as long as it totals the same.....
Anyway, i really look forward to upcoming promotions for the retail environment. Anyone, ever go to Radio Shack, Best Buy, and look at their SATELITE RADIO section? It was really sad...It owould be all the way in the back, no salespeople in the area. Most of the time the tags and labels are off the display due to them being there for years and left unattended. I think the iphone skydock and app will be great for the business. If not so much as immediate sales, but for product placement. Now, they can move advertisements and branding into the ipod section. They can set up a display similar to the website, where people can put on headphones and sample a channel. Each channel has about a 30 second sound clip that gives a promotion of the channel. Music should be secondary with the sale of ipod/iphone accessories. Stern, Oprah, Opie and Anthony, sports, Artist Branded channels, comedy should be seen as a great addition to their collection of music. If they want music of course the selection is there for them also. i just hope their new products are not just put on a back shelf like they are now, and hope customers will find it. A marketing push is needed. Sirius XM hasnt done much advertising in years...now it is time to let people know the company still exists and did not go bankrupt....There is still a feeling out there that the company is bordering on bankruptcy and is a dead technology...A strong push is needed to dispell that image...
On Sep 03 01:43 PM SIRI-Doom: wrote:
> I have been lurking on this board and have watched a lot of bloggers.
> I am very impressed with the cajones of SIRI-Doom. When I get old
> and have alheizemers, I want to be just like him! While his opinions
> have no foundation, they make for great reading. So keep up the fantasy
> writings. But please, come up with different stories. If I wanted
> to read your old comments, I would just click on you name!
On Sep 03 03:21 PM jmsithy wrote:
> you realize that if i sent the GS trading pc a virus to shut it down
> siri would be over a 1.00 by now and then some 3:10 pm this shot
> up without even moving the volume to .6214 from .6120 in 1 sec to
> bring this back down again to .0034
On Sep 03 03:59 PM jmsithy wrote:
> 2 more min and bets if going to be .6160 or .62 / .006 very funny
On Sep 03 03:45 PM connorport wrote:
> The good thing is they have to cover their short positions. Lets
> hope its when the market runs and not while people are taking profits.
> The new uptick rule that will eventually go into place only stops
> GS and other hedge funds from jumping on the backs of a company moving
> down quickly but it does not keep them from hammering a stock thats
> trying to move up. The good thing is the shorts are reducing their
> short positions quickly which is usually an indication of some upward
> movement expected. Its not a prediction but an observation that has
> a high % scenario to the positive so everyone that thinks that im
> calling an outcome here im not. We are in a volatile market where
> nothing goes but some signs can be pointed out to help you in your
> observations and research.
Just an opinion- but I believe some folks are giving the GS computer thing a bit more blame than it is actually responsible for.
Slow news day- so let me explain my opinion:
When you see it trade just .001 or .002 for several trades, a lot of that is day traders and smaller desk traders trying to "lure" the price in thier direction either positive or negative. They are trading just 100 to 1000 shares at a time but building a position over time of 2 or 300,000 shares that they hope will average out in thier favor before selling.
Then other times you see large chunks go at once or all of the sudden the price moves a half cent or even a whole cent. This is when a larger desk or even a fund manger decide to buy into or get out of a 500,000 to several million share position. It may have been lured down and then they throw out one big order that takes every bid or every ask up the stack until it get to the total share price they wanted to accumulate. (meaning they bought all of the .6051's, .6052's, .6053's etc up into the .6100's - which usually have a much larger bulk of shares on the round cent- is why they stop on the line- Most retail folks can't trade between the round cents.)
Then you'll see it drop right back to where it was a lot of times because many dozen traders don't see the move happen quick enough and drop thier order at a price that was a second or two old before it updated in the system. In such a high volume stock like SIRI that gap can fill completely in like it was never there almost instantly.
Those wicked movements right at the beginning and end of the day are simply larger lots (20k-100k) being dropped and/or picked up by folks willing to give up a half cent in order to get in or out right before the close or at the open. Some of those are highly skilled daytraders waiting to rape the nervous knuckleheads that freak and follow a fast move.
This GS computer issue is happening. Flash trading does occur but there are a half dozen firms that are doing it within the big market makers systems- not just GS. Citidel--- is one of them.
When Front running or flash trading is occuring---You and I can't see it and never really preceive the effect of it. It does happens between that time a moment after you hit "Confirm" or "Buy" and the time your order fills. But if you use a limit order----It still fills at the price you set for the limit. Becasue we all know you Must use a LIMIT order!- Right?
If you use a Market order or when a desk trader select a large volume trade- you and he could get burned buy a whole .001 cent because it predicts the trade and put shares out there before you get them.
In the bigger picture- they (GS, flash trades, dark pools, etc...) none of them really have much of a perceptible effect on you and me- we trade, usually, at round cents, with limit orders, and in single lots to maybe a dozen lots over several days- and most importantly- we look for 4% or greater of a moves. Or at least 4% is worth doing our taxes on and actually feels like a gain -right...
It does have a cumulative effect, It is abusive and bad for the markets in general- but do you really care if they made .0001 cent off of a 100 share trade if you just pulled the trigger on a 15% win?
Again only opinion- on a slow news day.
Good Luck and Green Trades.
PEACE.
On Sep 03 04:09 PM jmsithy wrote:
> I believe you are right in this / just very frustrating. when the
> rest of the stocks can trade normally and this stock is all over
> the place compaired to other penny stocks. This trades more than
> just a penny stock / all i am saying if the GS trading was not in
> play this stock would be well over a dollar by now / just by looking
> at the technical positives of this company where it has come a long
> way since Feb / Other companies has come just as far / but does not
> have the manipulative BS that this stock has
Maybe Siri Doom is getting to you. Come on back it up. Where's the news on this?
Mr. Stupid
On Sep 03 03:04 PM jmsithy wrote:
> I just heard some news about the Siri-stock that will push this towards
> 1.00 in 2 weeks something about Autos and a new device / and this
> wont be because of the D-listed issues according to Siri-Doom I guess
> Siri-Doom has been left out too late my man you might of gotten your
> 40k but you are still down by 250K maybe next time
I have a Spoofer with :: in the loginID
Spoofing... Someone has to much extra time.
When the cash was about to flow from those upgrades, they took the company private.
Mr. Stupid
On Sep 03 03:04 PM jmsithy wrote:
> I just heard some news about the Siri-stock that will push this towards
> 1.00 in 2 weeks something about Autos and a new device
On Sep 03 05:30 PM 1more4me wrote:
> Jmsithy and anyone who cares,
> Just an opinion- but I believe some folks are giving the GS computer
> thing a bit more blame than it is actually responsible for. <br/>
>
> Slow news day- so let me explain my opinion:
> When you see it trade just .001 or .002 for several trades, a lot
> of that is day traders and smaller desk traders trying to "lure"
> the price in thier direction either positive or negative. They are
> trading just 100 to 1000 shares at a time but building a position
> over time of 2 or 300,000 shares that they hope will average out
> in thier favor before selling.
>
> Then other times you see large chunks go at once or all of the sudden
> the price moves a half cent or even a whole cent. This is when a
> larger desk or even a fund manger decide to buy into or get out of
> a 500,000 to several million share position. It may have been lured
> down and then they throw out one big order that takes every bid or
> every ask up the stack until it get to the total share price they
> wanted to accumulate. (meaning they bought all of the .6051's, .6052's,
> .6053's etc up into the .6100's - which usually have a much larger
> bulk of shares on the round cent- is why they stop on the line- Most
> retail folks can't trade between the round cents.)
> Then you'll see it drop right back to where it was a lot of times
> because many dozen traders don't see the move happen quick enough
> and drop thier order at a price that was a second or two old before
> it updated in the system. In such a high volume stock like SIRI that
> gap can fill completely in like it was never there almost instantly.
>
>
> Those wicked movements right at the beginning and end of the day
> are simply larger lots (20k-100k) being dropped and/or picked up
> by folks willing to give up a half cent in order to get in or out
> right before the close or at the open. Some of those are highly
> skilled daytraders waiting to rape the nervous knuckleheads that
> freak and follow a fast move.
>
> This GS computer issue is happening. Flash trading does occur but
> there are a half dozen firms that are doing it within the big market
> makers systems- not just GS. Citidel--- is one of them.
>
> When Front running or flash trading is occuring---You and I can't
> see it and never really preceive the effect of it. It does happens
> between that time a moment after you hit "Confirm" or "Buy" and the
> time your order fills. But if you use a limit order----It still
> fills at the price you set for the limit. Becasue we all know you
> Must use a LIMIT order!- Right?
> If you use a Market order or when a desk trader select a large volume
> trade- you and he could get burned buy a whole .001 cent because
> it predicts the trade and put shares out there before you get them.
>
>
> In the bigger picture- they (GS, flash trades, dark pools, etc...)
> none of them really have much of a perceptible effect on you and
> me- we trade, usually, at round cents, with limit orders, and in
> single lots to maybe a dozen lots over several days- and most importantly-
> we look for 4% or greater of a moves. Or at least 4% is worth doing
> our taxes on and actually feels like a gain -right...
>
> It does have a cumulative effect, It is abusive and bad for the markets
> in general- but do you really care if they made .0001 cent off of
> a 100 share trade if you just pulled the trigger on a 15% win?<br/>
>
> Again only opinion- on a slow news day.
> Good Luck and Green Trades.
> PEACE.
>
> On Sep 03 04:09 PM jmsithy wrote:
On Sep 03 07:28 PM connorport wrote:
> Thats interesting but if i put a sell at market price on SIRI from
> my Etrade account then it goes to the floor and they sell my shares
> at whatever the bid is from the people with other Etrade accounts
> that put out a buy at market price. Even though im a small trader
> and can't set a limit into the fractions of a penny that doesn't
> mean my shares don't sell at them. I bought 50k shares at .1109 from
> my Dell Laptop on my Etrade account by putting the order in at market.
> Don't try to hard to figure it out. Just enjoy the ride!!!
Mr. Stupid
On Sep 03 07:28 PM connorport wrote:
> Thats interesting but if i put a sell at market price on SIRI from
> my Etrade account then it goes to the floor and they sell my shares
> at whatever the bid is from the people with other Etrade accounts
> that put out a buy at market price. Even though im a small trader
> and can't set a limit into the fractions of a penny that doesn't
> mean my shares don't sell at them. I bought 50k shares at .1109 from
> my Dell Laptop on my Etrade account by putting the order in at market.
> Don't try to hard to figure it out. Just enjoy the ride!!!
Mr. Stupid
On Sep 03 07:28 PM connorport wrote:
> Thats interesting but if i put a sell at market price on SIRI from
> my Etrade account then it goes to the floor and they sell my shares
> at whatever the bid is from the people with other Etrade accounts
> that put out a buy at market price. Even though im a small trader
> and can't set a limit into the fractions of a penny that doesn't
> mean my shares don't sell at them. I bought 50k shares at .1109 from
> my Dell Laptop on my Etrade account by putting the order in at market.
> Don't try to hard to figure it out. Just enjoy the ride!!!
On Sep 03 10:38 PM Mr. Stupid wrote:
> I know on some online brokers you can't do market orders on stocks
> under dollar. I thought that was a general rule for most online trading
> platforms but i might be wrong. On Scottrade, I have to do a "SET"
> price for stocks under dollar and vice versa, set sale.
>
> Mr. Stupid