Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

<< Return to page 1 - Tension Will Rise into Friday's Unemployment Report

The good news for bulls is there was little heavy follow-through selling from yesterday but let’s emphasize “heavy” since breadth still was negative. Volume declined markedly today and it seems logical tension will rise into Friday’s unemployment report. I don’t expect much consequential action given that this report will be the focal point for most investors.

What to watch? Gold and Uncle Buck.

The scary thing is Monday’s holiday following the employment report. If the report is poorly received Friday, Monday could see a serious sell-off. Be very careful.

If there isn’t much consequential action tomorrow I may not post until Friday.

Let’s see what happens.

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The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

Comments

[SeeTheLight:]

Shanghai is up almost 5% on better than expected lending news; US market futures are green. Looks like Tuesday may have been another dip to buy. Let's see if the bulls are able to grab the reins and drive the markets higher.

Personally I am still fearful (while others are greedy) and even if the market surpasses its most recent top I have no faith in it and continue to sit safely on the sidelines mostly in cash, a few longs, some Gold and Silver and some UUP, waiting to see if reality ever decides to set in.

I can say its difficult to remain disciplined with the casino mentality of the market today. I briefly flirted (in my mind) with jumping into the dash for trash. Thankfully I did not and saved myself some money, a lesson that didn't cost me anything and restored my discipline to be patient. Sooner or later the S&P P/Es will return to the mean (and somehow I doubt that will occur by the "E" actually increasing to reduce the high multiple). Until then I wait.

Good Luck all.

Sep 03 03:55 AM

[Anon.:]

Why not PIN instead of IFN?
Just a suggestion. Thanks.

Sep 03 06:47 AM

[maelstrom:]

David you are all over the technicals....love your posts

Sep 03 07:53 AM

[robert.b.fe...:]

Great job as always David and have an excellent week end. With Berkshire (BKR) dumpster diving and Goldman (GS) setting out to pick more pockets it's no wonder things look better on the Pac rim. China is winding down it's stimulous against terrible Tim's advice. Like they would listen to him anyway. Unemployment stabalizing or so they say. I guess there are only sooo many jobs you can cut before reaching diminishing returns. As always keep your traveling stops tight and your stash of cash in gold.

Sep 03 09:06 AM

[Bill L.:]

David, question for you, what odds do you give that there was no real mystery behind the lack of volume in this rally and it has been just a bear market rally? -much like the 1930's recover.

Sep 03 10:10 AM

[DellRocks:]

...or is this low volume just the "new normal", therefore meaningless


On Sep 03 10:10 AM Bill L. wrote:

> David, question for you, what odds do you give that there was no
> real mystery behind the lack of volume in this rally and it has been
> just a bear market rally? -much like the 1930's recover.

Sep 03 10:22 AM

[David Fry:]

Odds maker Dave doesn't really know. But, I did note a recent headline touting the recent rally as the "best since 1933". The rest of the story so to speak, is what happened thereafter which is too horrific for the MSM to print.

Sep 03 10:33 AM

[TeresaE:]

Never fear the jobs "report," it is - and has been for a long time - pure, unadulterated BS.

Millions of people are running out of benefits or taking part-time jobs at Walmart.

Magically, unemployment improves!

See, no fear.

BS in , BS out.

Sep 03 10:34 AM

[OceanTiger:]

Some fields such as manufacture, house building , unemployment rate is over 40%. Giant state like CA unemployment rate is about 13%. Actual unemployment rate include part-time is about 16%. Job market is only thing decides if recession is over. If more people get jobs , they will buy more, more GDP, more car and house buy. But now the problem is absent of industrial leaders, who will hire more peoples? Good to Hold education stocks such as APOL, ESI... see Trade4Rich.com 298,000 private jobs were lost last month. Big concerns about job losses and the weakness of labor markets will determine this month market direction.

Sep 03 10:48 AM

[NatalieRoberts:]

Uncle Buck is a favorite.

Sep 03 11:50 AM

[AndrewBaker:]

Well, I'm glad I added gold miners recently to my gold holdings: nearly $1000 bucks an ounce, and going over that soon!

I can't understand the financials still on the up: there's people out there wanting to lose money: they just don't know it yet.

Sep 03 04:09 PM

[ThetaTrade:]

What's up with precious metals rising but without any dollar weakness?

Sep 03 06:20 PM

[MarvinMBA:]

Silver is going to be great going forward regardless of what the stock market does. As the dollar drops watch silver skyrocket. The small guys all around the world including China and India are going to want Gold and Silver going forward....."trust no one", is the name of the game both here and aboard...at least for the next 5 or 10 years is my considered opinion...MarvinMBA

Sep 03 11:15 PM

[IMHO:]

bugger off.


On Sep 04 11:17 AM LKofEnglish wrote:

> "stick saves," "jam-jobs," what's next? "whackin' the hurdy-gurdy?"
> i mean what the HELL do these words mean exactly? stick to number
> crunchin'. leave the (bad) English to me.

Sep 04 11:37 AM