August Auto Sales Should Give a Sirius Boost to Subscriber Numbers

By Brandon Matthews

The august sales data is in, and one real winner will no doubt be Sirius XM Radio (SIRI). The numbers simply do not lie. The market chooses to focus on year over year numbers when it comes to U.S. auto sales, but for Satellite Radio investors the incremental increases in month to month sales have never been so important, as the subscriber break-even point seems to hover near the current rate of auto sales. The combined numbers put auto sales on a pace this quarter to exceed 3 million units.

There are two important factors to look at when it comes to Satellite Radio subscriber additions and losses. The first is auto sales data and the second is jobs data. Higher auto sales equates to more promotional subscribers while high job losses equates to higher churn, as more people decide to put their paid satellite radio subscriptions on hold. There is an unknown point in which the two factors can cancel each other out, resulting in zero subscriber growth.

For those that paid attention to the company’s second quarter conference call, Sirius XM Radio C.E.O. Mel Karmazin tipped his hand when he announced that the company had seen positive subscriber growth during the month of July. The August auto sales data would seem to indicate that the same holds true for August, as sales far outpaced those in the first month of the quarter.

Click Image To View Larger Image In The Satwaves Forum

In the first quarter, there were 2,190,670 cars and light trucks sold in the U.S. and Sirius XM Radio reported substantial promotional subscriber losses, as promotional subscribers had peaked in the second quarter of 2008. In the second quarter, Sirius XM Radio was still able to shave subscriber losses on U.S. auto sales of 2,596,082 vehicles. The current quarterly indicates that 2,259,080 vehicles have already been sold, which should put Sirius XM Radio on pace to add to its subscriber base for the first time this year. In addition, both Ford (F) and Chrysler have announced large production increases in the current quarter as well as the next, which will add to Sirius XM’s base as those promotional subscriptions are paid for in advance by Ford and Chrysler at the time of production, rather than sale.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Ford will increase its output to nearly 1 million vehicles and also reports that Chrysler as well is now using overtime and additional shifts to boost output. Sirius XM Radio enjoys a 70% penetration rate across these two car lines, which will add further support to Satellite Radio’s growth this year.

Position: Long SIRI

Comments

[halfy:]

Either SIRI-Doom has no job or his/her job is to bash Satellite Radio. Who else would have so much time to scour the internet for every single article on Sirius and post their opinion?

Whether his/her motivation is boredom due to unemployment, or he/she is a paid mercenary out to damage public opinion on this stock, his/her opinions can't really be taken seriously.

Sep 04 12:44 PM

[SIRI-Doom:]

halfy is a paid SIRI advertiser with a brand new multi loginID...

They use lots of loginID to bash and supress any truth of about SIRI..

Very sad...

Sep 04 12:52 PM

[Mr. Stupid:]

I've seen many NasDaq delisting notices and you're right some do drop and alot don't drop.

Nasdaq has lightened up on this rule since many other companies that are trading less than Siri would be dropped and they haven't.

Mr. Stupid




On Sep 04 04:39 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:

> NasDaQ Delisting Warning Letter
>
> SIRI has only 5 trading days to make it to 1.00
>
> Bad news press release expected September 15 - 18
>
> It is going to be like a SIRI fire sale.....
>
> How much will Mel pay to supress this bad news?

Sep 04 01:03 PM

[User 479342:]

one stat: 18,000,000 subs! 'nuff said.

Sep 04 01:13 PM

[jmsithy:]

whoo hoo siri up by .04 today

Sep 04 01:37 PM

[SIRI-Doom:]

Bid: 0.6479
Ask: 0.6480

Sep 04 02:02 PM

[jmsithy:]

too bad you dumped earlier you would made some


On Sep 04 02:02 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:

> Bid: 0.6479
> Ask: 0.6480

Sep 04 02:47 PM

[jmsithy:]

yeah but those companies you are talking about on the NASDQ

dont get those companies mixed with ones on the NYSE


On Sep 04 01:03 PM Mr. Stupid wrote:

> I've seen many NasDaq delisting notices and you're right some do
> drop and alot don't drop.
>
> Nasdaq has lightened up on this rule since many other companies that
> are trading less than Siri would be dropped and they haven't. <br/>
>
> Mr. Stupid
>
>

Sep 04 02:49 PM

[jmsithy:]

any takes on this closing @ .65 today.....

I have been right so far

Sep 04 02:52 PM

[Jerrold Wil...:]

Let's all agree...if SIRI is over $.60 in the next 5 business days...SIRI-DOOM has to admit he is wrong and then at that time just stop the lies. I think it would only be right. You've been posting this same thing 200 times a day...If in 5 business days the stock doesnt crash, can you move on? It's always easy to point to the future and predict, but when the future date comes...the facts will be facts...numbers don't lie.....Let's say by 9/16...if this stock is over $.60...you just STOP wasting space on this site...Don't make up another lie....just give up, admit you were wrong...If you were right....Then we should all congratulate you and join your investment club.....You will really look STUPID in 5 days or so.....Let's start the countdown....

Sep 04 03:46 PM

[between the...:]

Siri Doom: I guess your legacy was left at Sirius. They still have the gay channel. Go you hairy bull dawgs!

Sep 04 03:58 PM

[JamesPS:]

Lets just all agree to ignore Siri doom. Responding is just what he wants. Just ignore that fool.

Sep 04 04:33 PM

[jmsithy:]

So I guess Siri-Doom is also involved in this as well the way it sounds since he has not been back on here since earlier this afternoon


On Sep 04 06:17 PM Dick Keane wrote:

> Check out the 1st amendment news that came out at end of this week.
>
>
> It will be the start of making writers like RAM of the Motley Fools
> accountable for his mis-leading headlines and articles.
>
> Finally some justice.
> mobile.reuters.com/mob...
>
>
>
> Richard Keane, narrator Stock Shock
>

Sep 04 08:02 PM

[A calm voice:]

Rev-split will be a good thing if it is deep enough and timed properly. Like right before earnings. There won't be enough shares available to prop up a decent short position which will force massive covering driving the stock much higher


On Sep 04 04:41 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:

> NasDq Delisting and / or rev-split
>
> Bad news on the way...

Sep 05 01:23 AM

[A calm voice:]

SIRI- DOOM,
A rev-split is not nearly as negative as it used to be. Shorts have lost a lot of power and tools from the war chest. They no longer have the naked short selling ability that they used to. Now all they really have is fear. OOOHHH NNOO a rev split "the sky is falling". What ever price drop does come will represent an awesome buying opportunity. It won't be that big of a drop, there won't be enough shares to borrow out there. Look ahead follow the earning trends and really tell me you think the numbers in the next two quaters are going to be bad??? How did AIG do with that rev split??? not too bad eh! I'll take my chances and pick up any shares you want to get panicked out of at a discount.

On Sep 04 04:54 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:

> Still time for a last min suspension of the 1.00 rule. But, don’t
> count on it.
>
> I can easily see 30 to 40 cents, especially when a rev-split is announced.

Sep 05 01:40 AM

[SIRI-Doom:]

Near Term Profit
The debate on good or bad of a delisting letter and a rev-split is out of my short term range for day trade speculation. Very near term predictions and effect on the sp is my current agenda. In other words, will it happen and how big will the effect be on the sp?

Some good money can be made on drops and recovery during the turmoil of a NasDq delisting event. More money can be made on rev-split events. Goldman Sachs flash trading manipulation is the biggest problem as they have basic control of the sp.

As a day trader of long stocks, I hope to enjoy the last of SIRI penny stock days.

Sep 05 02:52 PM

[Mr. Stupid:]

If you let Motley fools mislead or Siri doom then you're way too gullable.

Mr. Stupid


On Sep 04 08:02 PM jmsithy wrote:

> So I guess Siri-Doom is also involved in this as well the way it
> sounds since he has not been back on here since earlier this afternoon
>

Sep 05 10:19 PM

[Mr. Stupid:]

You're really not looking into this very good. Doesn't have anything to do with what you're interpreting. I don't know about you but I don't want Obama infringing on our 1st Amendment Rights. uhhh


On Sep 04 06:17 PM Dick Keane wrote:

> Check out the 1st amendment news that came out at end of this week.
>
>
> It will be the start of making writers like RAM of the Motley Fools
> accountable for his mis-leading headlines and articles.
>
> Finally some justice.
> mobile.reuters.com/mob...
>
>
>
> Richard Keane, narrator Stock Shock
>

Sep 05 10:24 PM

[jmsithy:]

Right there he is a short trader and part of the hedge funds aince he wants to keep this low to continue his rein on this short selling stock


On Sep 05 02:52 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:

> Near Term Profit
> The debate on good or bad of a delisting letter and a rev-split is
> out of my short term range for day trade speculation. Very near term
> predictions and effect on the sp is my current agenda. In other words,
> will it happen and how big will the effect be on the sp?
>
> Some good money can be made on drops and recovery during the turmoil
> of a NasDq delisting event. More money can be made on rev-split events.
> Goldman Sachs flash trading manipulation is the biggest problem as
> they have basic control of the sp.
>
> As a day trader of long stocks, I hope to enjoy the last of SIRI
> penny stock days.

Sep 06 09:22 PM

[HB:]

So whats your margin?


On Sep 04 04:41 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:

> NasDq Delisting and / or rev-split
>
> Bad news on the way...

Sep 11 04:17 PM