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The latest Marc Faber; he pretty much agrees with what we've been saying in relation to yet another stimulus plan that will be undertaken as the "real economy" does not heal on it's own. He does believe the massive monetary stimulus will create a longer "fake recovery" than we do, but I suppose that is dependent on how big the next stimulus plan(s) will be, how soon the $15,000 Cash for Clunker housing program begins, when the next Cash for Clunker cars program begins, and how long the Fed (as it talks about green shoots) continues to keep interest rates at 0-0.25% and mortgage rates near 5%.

Then after all that sugar rush, he says we will begin to pay the price. (Marc is in rare form between the 4 and 7 minute mark)

Question: You have no faith in the administration's ability to wind back stimulus and start dealing with that program?

Marc: Are you joking (while laughing) - having faith in the US administration? I wonder WHO on Earth would have faith in the US administration. Certainly, not someone who thinks!

(snip)

Question: Last time we spoke 5 months ago, you said I should buy a farm and a gun...

Marc: (laughing) now you need a machine gun!

(snip)

Question: Is there anything that you can tell me that could possibly derail your incredibly pessimistic scenario.

Marc: uhhh.... No.

It's very difficult for me to make any forecasts out 9-12 months myself, because I have to see to what lengths the government and Fed will continue to go. My assumption is there is nothing that will stop them - they don't have to face voters until August 2010 recess so the piggy bank is their oyster for the next 11 months.

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  •  
    Heaven forbid anyone have a machine gun. A moral people are able to remain free. An immoral people are not. It is not guns that are the problem, but the decline in morals.


    On Sep 04 09:18 AM swygert@law.stetson.edu wrote:

    > It is easy to be factious and glib and to proclaim "who on Earth
    > would have faith in the US administration. Certainly not someone
    > who thinks." Then to say in response to the interviewer's comment
    > that five months earlier he had said "buy a farm and a gun . . .",
    > you now exclaim: "Now you need a machine gun," well such dark humor
    > in such serious world and national times I find disturbing. Yes,
    > one can laughingly say buy a machine gun on national media, but perchance
    > among the multitudes of listeners they might act on the suggestion.
    > What may be more significant is the spreading of hopeless cynicism
    > when positive ideas and suggestions are needed. Mr. Farber perhaps
    > you were misquoted and if so, I am very sorry. If you were quoted
    > correctly, I am also sorry.
    Sep 04 01:11 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "Sorry for the pessimism"

    Not singling you out or trying to pick on you here. But, this statement highlights one of our cultural problems: an unspoken rule to NOT be pessimistic - even when it is realistic or truthful.

    Our leaders and we citizens will HAVE to endure the difficult truths that lie in front of us. We can either talk about it or ignore it, but one way or another the truth has a way of surfacing and we shouldn't feel 'fringish' for having spoken it. /rant


    On Sep 04 08:16 AM TripleG wrote:

    > Give MF credit for being the one honest guy on CNBC. We are headed
    > for inflation and there is no turning this around. (Sorry for the
    > pessimism.)
    Sep 04 01:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The Fed chairman is not supposed to be liked, is not supposed to be on the cover of magazines, is not supposed to be a Rich and Famous Superstar (I almost wrote 'Stupidstar') -- and he's not running for election. The Fed Chairman is supposed to be like Saturn. He's supposed to eat his children if the times demand it.


    On Sep 04 10:02 AM Graham and Dodd Investor wrote:

    > Volcker, like President Carter himself, was the Fed Chairman we were
    > glad to "have had" (in retrospect). But almost no one liked him at
    > the time.
    >
    > Nor would they like him today, if he were miraculously reinstated.
    >
    Sep 04 01:23 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    History has yet to prove, as far as I can see, that a civilization can be both rich and moral. Are these contradictory states?

    History does provide, however, many examples of poor nations who had no morality.

    It seems like morality and selfishness are opposites in some way. There is no morality in the selfish act. The rich man who is unselfish has a higher morality than the poor man who is selfish. Although, apparently, finding the rich man who is unselfish is as difficult as seeing a camel through the needle of the eye, if we are to believe some historical authorities.


    On Sep 04 01:11 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

    > Heaven forbid anyone have a machine gun. A moral people are able
    > to remain free. An immoral people are not. It is not guns that
    > are the problem, but the decline in morals.
    Sep 04 01:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Is Marc suggesting that the Fed is trying to force an oyster into a piggybank? Should Ben Bernanke take this personally?
    Sep 04 01:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Commercial real estate will collapse, but the FED will save only the big boys; smaller and community banks will be fed to the sharks.

    Porkulus II, Porkulus III....FDR all over again.

    I wonder when they will confiscate gold, have a bank "holiday", set withdrawal limits on IRA's and 401K's (e.g. - not allow you to take it out, tax the balance, and tell you where it must be invested) ?????

    Marc Faber's bigger point is that as a nation we are morally bankrupt. Our work ethic is out the window, and we have sold ourselves down the river for flat screen televisions, plastic junk from China, and keeping up with the Jones's as the basis of self-esteem. Besides that, we don't produce real goods anymore other than food and space junk.
    Sep 04 01:39 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Amen to that, brother.


    On Sep 04 01:39 PM ebworthen wrote:

    > Commercial real estate will collapse, but the FED will save only
    > the big boys; smaller and community banks will be fed to the sharks.
    >
    >
    > Porkulus II, Porkulus III....FDR all over again.
    >
    > I wonder when they will confiscate gold, have a bank "holiday", set
    > withdrawal limits on IRA's and 401K's (e.g. - not allow you to take
    > it out, tax the balance, and tell you where it must be invested)
    > ?????
    >
    > Marc Faber's bigger point is that as a nation we are morally bankrupt.
    > Our work ethic is out the window, and we have sold ourselves down
    > the river for flat screen televisions, plastic junk from China, and
    > keeping up with the Jones's as the basis of self-esteem. Besides
    > that, we don't produce real goods anymore other than food and space
    > junk.
    Sep 04 01:48 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You don't end recession. Recession turns to depression and ENDS YOU.
    Sep 04 01:57 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Insane ranting


    On Sep 04 09:43 AM User 353732 wrote:

    > By Executive Order , the Govt will soon decree that all thinking
    > citizens are enemies of the State. ,,,
    Sep 04 02:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    On Sep 04 12:30 PM WS1835 wrote:

    > We are now seeing the 'end-game' folks. An attempt the grab the last
    > significant bit of your everyday life by punishing the use of energy
    > (cap and trade) and taking over your healthcare (all in your best
    > interest of course!). Once those goals are achieved, you and I will
    > be little better than the serfs of yore or the 'citizens' of the
    > modern gulag.
    >
    > No pessimism here. Just an objective comparison of current events
    > with past history. There is nothing new here in the methods and goals
    > of the power seeking elite. Sadly, the current path is very predictable.


    Our system of government is still intact and what made a great leader in the past still makes a great leader today. Being elected is not the same as being a leader. It only means being elected. Having access to tools, services and exercising authority during that period of time while in office are not the identifying marks of a leader either. It only means that office requires certain tools and services to accomplish specific tasks. It’s unfortunate that such elementary concepts appear to have been lost on our current crop of elected officials, but it’s up to us to teach and remind them who the servant is and who is being served. Any official who serves should not be required to serve in perpetuity, but should be allowed to retire to freedom with the rest of us. We evidently have made these positions of service too easy for them because they want to spend their lives there. It’s time we make their lives miserable.


    Sep 04 02:19 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You all also are not looking at the insidious nature of the boom/bust cycle. Saving does no good cause they take it away in inflation during the bust cycle. The bust cycle turns people into the ingrained thrift mode as the author has passed along. It's a manipulation of expectation. Shrinking people economically and expectationally while the FEW at the top pretend to stop spending or hide their spending with NO limitations imposed on them. And has been stated have we really gotten our money worth from China. I mean the dollars seem to still be in thier possesion but have not their cheap tools broken and their plastic happy meal toys not been thrown in the trash.
    Sep 04 02:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Faber is a smart guy but don't you tire of peopel who predict rain but dont build arks?

    Buying good Large cap multinationals will beat any straegy Thats what Buffett does
    Sep 04 02:27 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    And Buffet has been doing SO well lately!
    Wait . . . No . . .
    Sep 04 02:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Faber is a good quote and glib, but his record is not good on predictions. In this case he fails to offer the whole picture. He also holds a lot of gold and pretends he is informed on the US economy. But he is not, he is an avid speculator and he wants to make a case of the end of hope to drive the country into chaos. There is just enough truth in his line that he gets attention. But he is up to no good for the USA.

    Our real problems stem from our expectations and unwillingness to compromise on life styles. We will do that one day and it will be necessary to go on living but in a more basic manner. Beyond that we have no control over Congress or the Administration and there is almost no limit to the damage both can inflict in the next three years.

    We have a right to be fearful of a president who can not think clearly, and who is supported in his work by half-witted economists, criminal bankers, and social reformers. Forget Faber and concentrate on political change.
    Sep 04 04:04 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I agree with you.

    However, a majority of our populace are sheeple, who still trust the representatives in government and captains of industry who have so recently bent them over - yet again.

    The town hall anger is more about people waking up to being bent over than it is about healthcare.

    When I hear the mind numbing drone from some career politician about "working together" and "passing legislation" and "real change" and "helping the elderly and the children and left handed unicycle riders with leprosy" all I hear is "blah, blah, blah" because that's all it is, BULLSHIT.

    I've heard it for forty years, FORTY! It's the same drivel Congress and the lustfully greedy in industry have drooled for decade after decade.

    Certainly, there are good leaders and individuals who give their heart to do the right thing; however, the sharks smell their blood from a mile away and make certain any steward of liberty and justice is ripped apart so their blood fills the water and are swallowed before they can get any real power. If they can't eliminate them altogether they marginalize them, ridicule them, and turn the blade of justice so they can feed at the trough for yet another day. It is about playing off each other and stalling and delaying change. It is about keeping the grinding wheels of oppressive bureacracy turning, with the median wage earner and family strapped to it or pushing the cart full of debt and lies and false promises.

    Baaaaahhhh!




    On Sep 04 04:04 PM whidbey wrote:

    > Faber is a good quote and glib, but his record is not good on predictions.
    > In this case he fails to offer the whole picture. He also holds a
    > lot of gold and pretends he is informed on the US economy. But he
    > is not, he is an avid speculator and he wants to make a case of the
    > end of hope to drive the country into chaos. There is just enough
    > truth in his line that he gets attention. But he is up to no good
    > for the USA.
    >
    > Our real problems stem from our expectations and unwillingness to
    > compromise on life styles. We will do that one day and it will be
    > necessary to go on living but in a more basic manner. Beyond that
    > we have no control over Congress or the Administration and there
    > is almost no limit to the damage both can inflict in the next three
    > years.
    >
    > We have a right to be fearful of a president who can not think clearly,
    > and who is supported in his work by half-witted economists, criminal
    > bankers, and social reformers. Forget Faber and concentrate on political
    > change.
    Sep 04 04:36 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    He is right. The real cause of the problem is the credit bubble that was inflated to a huge bubble. But to force the FED to print money like crazy, deflation will happen first according to Prechter:

    www.tradingstocks.net/...


    On Sep 04 07:29 AM Roger Knights wrote:

    > Here's his wittiest remark (at the start): he called governmental
    > stimulus injections "The crack of boom." Here is another snippet:
    >
    >
    > Marc Faber: I don’t think they [governments] will wind it back [their
    > stimulus] voluntarily. I think one stimulus will lead to the next
    > one and to money printing, and so in five to ten years’ time the
    > real crisis will break out when the whole system collapses. That
    > will be The End [emphasized].
    > ……………
    > Ben Bernanke is like a ship captain. He has warning signs, he sails
    > the ship, there’s a storm coming, he disregards any warning signals,
    > he sinks the ship, a thousand passengers drown, he saves the crew
    > in his control tower, five officers and himself in a lifeboat, then
    > gets a medal for bravery for saving five people. That’s Wall Street,
    > the five people. The rest of the country’s basically bankrupt.<br/>
    >
    > Who created the crisis? Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke by letting
    > credit growth get out of hand. And that everyone could see.
    Sep 04 06:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I laughed out loud when I read this comment......... thank you for giving me my laugh for the day. Sincerely .........


    On Sep 04 10:01 AM Will.i.am wrote:

    > Does anyone still watch that sitcom CNBC, Bloomberg is going to eat
    > their lunch.
    Sep 04 09:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I laughed out loud when I read this comment......... thank you for giving me my laugh for the day. Sincerely .........


    On Sep 04 10:01 AM Will.i.am wrote:

    > Does anyone still watch that sitcom CNBC, Bloomberg is going to eat
    > their lunch.
    Sep 04 09:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "I wonder WHO on earth would have faith in the U.S.
    Administration? Certainly, not someone who thinks".

    But Mr. Faber, wasn't that the reason Adolph Hitler once
    made the comment before the start of World War II that
    it is the people who don't think (according to a History Channel
    presentation) who make it so wonderful for the governments
    to do as they please?

    That certainly explains the present crisis concerning central
    banks that have been pointed out by Ludwig Von Mises and
    others but ignored by the people who don't think, the majority
    voting populations here and in Europe where all this stuff
    orginated? They came to this continent then conterfeited and
    devalued the lucrative wampum of the Pequot Indians before
    massacring them and taking their land! The present world
    economic malaise has its roots centuries deep and needs to
    be thoroughly studied and evaluated by all those who do think!
    A competent educational system in so called democracies
    should have provided truthful historical instruction concerning
    this and other issues years ago and affluent citizenry should
    have demanded such whenever it went lacking. Unfortunately
    a brainwashed public lacks the awareness and presence of
    mind to demand such things of their elected officials in the so
    called modern "democracies". They apparently find other things
    more important to their everyday concerns such as having their
    neurtotic fantacies satisfied and thier hedonistic desires indulged.
    Do the "hard working Australians function in that manner in their
    day to day existence, I don't think so.

    All this is a sad testiment to a lie that the people who don't think either cannot or do not want to see or hear about!

    Erick Tippett
    Chicago, Illinois
    Sep 04 10:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    since no one else will refute such dribble, let me give it a shot. the business cycle is part of a capitalistic system. bubbles are extremely difficult for the central bank to control in a democratic political system. After the fact the central bank has the ability to mitigate the liquidity issues. This economy, contrary to both political extremes, is little different from the major post 1970 recessions. The S&P 500 will earn at least $100 in 2011 and with a 15x p/e ratio that = xx..gee, guess what, that's a profit.

    the longer the unemployment rate stays high the longer the central bank will maintain a loose monetary policy. a lot of this money will leak into the financial markets creating a strong stock market which will lead to a v shaped recovery typical of other recessions. don't confuse your political views with investing. marc faber is barrack obama..great with the media, and plays on the misconceptions of his audience.
    Sep 08 08:12 AM | Link | Reply
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