Catch Boeing While it Glides Downward

Aug.28.06 | About: The Boeing (BA)

Boeing (NYSE:BA) has been trending down for the last few weeks and it might be time to take a serious look at it.

First and foremost, it is unusual and unsustainable for a company to go down like Boeing has, when its biggest competition just made the biggest blunder in years. With Airbus now a good 18 months behind Boeing due to its delays, Boeing will clearly have to step in and fill in orders that might have gone to its competition. The company has already indicated that it has a short supply, which means that they will be charging a premium for its jets.

With the airline group in rebound mode, having recovered and some even cracking a profit, Boeing finds itself in the sweet spot, at the right place, at the right time, without immediate competition.

There are a few things that I don't like about the stock - the declining growth over the last few quarters (but this is the cyclical nature of Boeing's business), the rather excessive debt of over $10 billion and low margins.

Despite the above, the last 4 quarters have seen Boeing beat expectations, and 2007 earnings are expected to almost double that of 2006. Yet the stock trades at 15 times 2007 estimates.

Additionally, it is in one of the most defensive sectors of the market - the Defense sector, which means that while the market moves sideways or lower (as I expect it to for the next few weeks), Boeing might give you a quick 5-10% move before elections.

BA 1-yr chart: