Chart of the Week: Peak Hurricane Season Is Here

This year the Atlantic hurricane season has been a quiet one, but that is not to say things cannot heat up over the course of the next month or so.

In fact, as this week’s chart of the week shows, the hurricane season officially peaks in the next few days with the risk of hurricanes and tropical storms remaining elevated through the end of October.

While hurricane season is peaking soon, it is worth noting that there are meteorological phenomena which suggest it is no accident that hurricanes have had very little impact on the U.S. mainland in 2009. Specifically, experts attribute the below normal hurricane activity to El Niño, which developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean during June and has been responsible for increased wind shear in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, where most Atlantic hurricanes develop.

It is possible that the U.S. – including the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas infrastructure – will manage to elude significant damage from hurricanes this season, but for anyone looking to hedge positions or make speculative plays on hurricane activity, this would be a good week to do so relatively inexpensively.

For some excellent hurricane resources, try:

• National Hurricane Center
• Weather Underground: Tropical Weather
• AccuWeather: Hurricane Center
• Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog
• National Hurricane Center Archive of Hurricane Seasons
• Hurricane Impact Probabilities Table, by Location

[source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]

Comments

[rick12345:]

Yeah we need a hurricane or two to knock out a few gas piplines or a couple of oil rigs. Not inland of course.

Sep 08 04:55 AM

[NUCLEAR1929:]

crude oil is in the bullish mood, looks like higher prices are coming whatever the hurricanes, of course hurricane helps when it goes in the news and cnbc show the nymex pit

Sep 08 08:44 AM

[Mad Hedge F...:]

ghsfgh. Just when I get comfortable with my view on Natural Gas, I get a scratchy, reverberating cell phone call from one of the major formations telling me that I’m being way too bullish. Gas won’t bottom at $2. The free fall will continue until it hits $1. National storage will be completely full imminently top out, and when it does, the producers will have to shut down completely. Since these guys are leveraged up the wazoo, this will trigger a string of bankruptcies, and the majors will fall like dominoes. A hedge fund bust won’t define this bottom, as these guys are all playing from the short side. UNG can’t step in as a buyer of last resort, as the SEC won’t let it issue more stock, and the current shares are trading at a ridiculous 20% premium. One thing we do agree on is that the bottom will look ugly, whatever the spark is. You often get Armageddon type views near market bottoms, but this guy has been dead on right until now. Well, it takes two to make a market. Conclusion: keep NG nailed to your screen, as the widow maker is where the volatility lives.

Sep 08 10:26 AM

[cyclingscholar:]

Another non-event atlantic hurricane season, and another nail in the coffin of global warmingism?

Sep 08 01:11 PM

[dmz50:]

When NG hits a dollar, wake me up please so I can buy some UNG.

Sep 08 01:46 PM

[helplessobs...:]

One under reported effect on our weather is the North Atlantic Oscillation. The normal conditions are a semi permemant low pressure near Iceland and a corresponding high pressure near Spain. Under these conditions the NAO is positive, warm to hot summers and moderate winter temperatures. Recently it is abnormally negative allowing cool air flow over the U.S. this summer. The low riding polar jet is also herding tropical storms away from the U.S. To learn more Google the NAO and you can better forecast our continental weather. If the NAO is negative in Dec. and Jan. look for a frigid start to winter.

Sep 08 03:00 PM

[mkreisel:]

In 2005, there were 4 hurricanes in July alone. How many do we have so far this year?

Sep 08 04:33 PM

[mkreisel:]

Buying UNG only makes sense if the contango collapses to a more reasonable level. Right now, December NG is trading at almost 80% premium to October NG. You can forget about UNG under this kind of circumstances.


On Sep 08 01:46 PM dmz50 wrote:

> When NG hits a dollar, wake me up please so I can buy some UNG.

Sep 08 04:34 PM

[BPYHO:]

The El Nino phenomenon does not count as a nail in the coffin for 'global warmingism'. I know higher taxes are not popular but a cap and trade/carbon tax is coming. You'd do well to invest in FSLR, STP, YGE, TRN, HTM, or other 'green' companies now while congress debates health care... Might as well make some money off the green movement to help offset the higher taxes you will be paying in the future. BTW, global warming is happening, it's a FACT. You can debate whether humans are the cause of it, but there is no debate that the earth is getting warmer.


On Sep 08 01:11 PM cyclingscholar wrote:

> Another non-event atlantic hurricane season, and another nail in
> the coffin of global warmingism?

Sep 08 09:00 PM

[cyclingscholar:]

Don't confuse global WARMING, which may have numerous sources, consequences, and positive and negative effects, with global WARMINGISM, which is a neo-pagan religion that insists on mandatory worship at democrat party functions, mandatory contributions from the pews in the form of higher taxes and fewer freedoms, and regular paens to discredited and rejected leaders such as Algore.


>BTW, global warming is happening, it's a FACT. >You can debate
> whether humans are the cause of it, but there >is no debate that the earth is getting warmer.

Sep 09 02:45 PM