Can Gold Go Even Higher? 17 comments
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Gold: Gold had a fairly quiet day yesterday, prompted by the Labour Day holiday in the US. This morning was a different story when gold, as expected, broke through the psychological $1000/oz level in late Asian trading.
Initially, profit taking was seen at $1004/oz and the price fell back to $1,000/oz prior to rallying to over $1,007/oz. Gold looks very good technically and some investors are putting their trust in gold to see whether it pushes to new record highs just above $1,030/oz. Especially as extremely loose fiscal and monetary policies are likely to create an inflation headache down the road. GFMS report that there have recently been some "significant lumpy transactions" and "a degree of illiquidity" in the physical market which is a development worth monitoring.
With large hedge funds and central banks (such as the Russian and People's Bank of China) diversifying into physical bullion, investment demand remains as robust as ever and looks set to overpower the significant decline in jewellery demand and demand from the Indian subcontinent. The United Nations UNCTAD report warning that the "economic winter" was not over and calling for a new global reserve currency may have led to some buying also. Gold is currently trading at $1005/oz.
Silver: Silver is continuing to surge and is already up by over 2% in dollar terms. This is a new 13 month peak and although silver seems to be overbought at these levels, a massive correction may not be as inevitable as commented on yesterday. If gold holds on to its gains over the $1000/oz level, investors might not be so quick to take profits on silver- to see whether silver can continue to outperform gold or at least mirror its trajectory for the time being.
While silver is overbought by some technical measures the important Commitment of Traders report shows that the silver open interest went up 4094 contracts yesterday to 112,394. While this is a new recent high, silver's open interest high is around 150,000, so it has room for another 40,000 new longs to enter the market prior to the rally being overbought. Silver at over $20/oz remains viable before the end of 2009.
Platinum group metals: Platinum has pushed up to $1,272/oz, palladium is mounting a fresh assault on $300/oz, currently trading at $297/oz and rhodium is at $1,550/$1,650/oz.
Disclosure: No positions
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Cant wait to short this baby soon.
On Sep 08 11:05 AM Maxe Paul wrote:
> It looks like it's entering the bubble zone, no doubt about it with
> half the articles on SA today about gold.
>
> Cant wait to short this baby soon.
Silver is in an even better technical spot as we are still working off the selling pressure from 2008. I would not worry about significant resistance until we approach $20 and even that would likely be short-lived. Remember, silver is consumed where as gold is largely placed in vaults. Expect silver to outperform over the coming months
zachstocks.com/2009/09.../
Just pull up a 6 month chart of UDN vs GLD.
The answer is none of you or I have any idea what's going to happen to the dollar or gold. Inflation or deflation? No idea.
Just take your money to Vegas. The odds are about the same and at least you'll get free drinks and cheap food and provide some stimulus for their ailing businesses.
seekingalpha.com/insta...
On Sep 08 12:30 PM Michael Clark wrote:
> Gold responds to Time. Gold's bull market ends around 2019. Still
> plenty of time (and room) to run. See charts:
>
> seekingalpha.com/insta...
Geez, the title of your article makes it sound as if gold is pushing it's absolute limits like the S&P is. God man, give it a week or two to get on its feet. It may have only just begun. I think your question would be more appropriate once we see $1,500 or so.
As a side note... it really bothers me that gold be referred to as a "barbaric relic". That's a term more suited to Dick Cheney.
Although I see every fundamental reason why gold should be in the thousands, I can't but help myself feel that the FED and its minions are only toying with us. They have the power to let gold rise to... let's say $1,300, then drive it hard all the way to $600 if they want to. And such an event would appear so illogical. It would have us all scratching our heads... but alas, some new reason would emerge about why gold crashed.
But if logic has any place in this crazy world, gold would continue to rise from here and wouldn't return to $1,000... ever, because the USD should never be this strong again... ever.
> Gold $5000; Silver $100; DJIA 3000 within 10 years
Within 2 years, says I.
Let the mental midgets put their faith in a bankrupt govt with a bankrupt agenda and bankrupt morals. Let them enjoy their solidly negative interest rates (you lose money every day you hold your stupid little pieces of paper while the govt and banksters destroy the world). I will choose AURUM (Latin translation: "Shining Dawn") and even more I love - Ag.
IMO we will see a silver:gold ratio under 20:1 at some point as this is the natural geologic ratio and also the historical monetary ratio for millenia (before the fascist central banksters started screwing up the world's monetary system last century!) The key BULLISH hidden fact is that much more gold exists above ground than silver despite the huge price disparity! The once massive silver stockpiles have vanished in the last few decades thanks to its massive industrial usage. This silver has been consumed/depleted as it is used in a gazillion applications in minute nonrecoverble quantities. Silver is in EVERYTHING you use and more applications being made every year! Mine supply has fallen short of demand by several hundred million ounces per annum for a LONG TIME. Hence the diappearance of billions of ozs of once abundant silver. BUY PHYSICAL AND BUY NOW in my amateur (but INFORMED) opinion.
Fiat money is unbacked, irredeemable, fake, BS, promise of an untrustworthy system that has but the whole world on the brink of dysfunction (if not destruction!).
Another thing people need to understand: WARS would be MUCH less common if there were no fiat money, as they are very very expensive, but when Bush and Obama can get Ben B or Alan G to push the buttons then who gives a F?!? The taxpayers can pay the interest for the next few generations and the Fed makes money for the mega billionaires who can afford to buy our crappy paper.
> Anybody notice the Maxe Paul guy who posts on every single gold article
> and does nothing but BASH?!? Who does this guy work for???
No, I haven't noticed him. Don't tell me we've got a gov't troll on this blogsite?
> IMO we will see a silver:gold ratio under 20:1 at some point as this
> is the natural geologic ratio and also the historical monetary ratio
> for millenia (before the fascist central banksters started screwing
> up the world's monetary system last century!) The key BULLISH
> hidden fact is that much more gold exists above ground than silver
> despite the huge price disparity! The once massive silver stockpiles
> have vanished in the last few decades thanks to its massive industrial
> usage. This silver has been consumed/depleted as it is used in
> a gazillion applications in minute nonrecoverble quantities. Silver
> is in EVERYTHING you use and more applications being made every year!
> Mine supply has fallen short of demand by several hundred million
> ounces per annum for a LONG TIME. Hence the diappearance of billions
> of ozs of once abundant silver. BUY PHYSICAL AND BUY NOW in my
> amateur (but INFORMED) opinion.
You're not writing like an amateur.
> Another thing people need to understand: WARS would be MUCH less
> common if there were no fiat money, as they are very very expensive,
> but when Bush and Obama can get Ben B or Alan G to push the buttons
> then who gives a F?!? The taxpayers can pay the interest for the
> next few generations and the Fed makes money for the mega billionaires
> who can afford to buy our crappy paper.
Bingo! You sir, are no amateur. Very well said!
> It looks like it's entering the bubble zone, no doubt about it with
> half the articles on SA today about gold.
>
> Cant wait to short this baby soon.
What are ya waitin' for? And while you're at it, buy some Dec. 150 calls on SPY. They're only 2 cents... worth about the same as your opinion.
><snip>
> Although I see every fundamental reason why gold should be in the
> thousands, I can't but help myself feel that the FED and its minions
> are only toying with us. They have the power to let gold rise to...
> let's say $1,300, then drive it hard all the way to $600 if they
> want to.
And since they always worry about the "value" (if any) of their fiat money, that's probably what will happen.
> And such an event would appear so illogical. It would
> have us all scratching our heads... but alas, some new reason would
> emerge about why gold crashed.
>
> But if logic has any place in this crazy world, gold would continue
> to rise from here and wouldn't return to $1,000... ever, because
> the USD should never be this strong again... ever.
Taking the flip side of that "if logic has any place in this crazy world": if logic had any place in this world, the would be not fiat money, no debt money, no central bank in the U.S., no deficit spending, no "business cycles" as they are euphemistically named.
Gold would be a commodity valued purely for, and on, its intrinsic value and normal supply and demand fundamentals.
As it is, it ultimately serves as a tool of the populace to try and offset the evils of those things I mention above and as a tool of the manipulators to strip the populace of their wealth over the long haul.
HardToLove