Market closing price results for S&P 500 Index members per Yahoo Finance was tallied as of June 24 and compared with analyst one year mean target gain results. The chart below derived from that data showcased ten top stocks exhibiting 6.02% to 15.54% price upsides come July 2014.
The chart above used the one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts matched against June 24 closing price to compare ten sector stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This article reported results of the S&P 500 as one of fourteen in a series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield and price upside results. Prompted by Seeking Alpha reader requests, the series has reported results for these stock indices: Dow 30; Barron's 15 Gems; Russell 2000; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 50; NASDAQ; NYSE International 100; Mergent Dividend Achievers; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29.
This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any index and compared that index side by side with the Dow. Below, the Arnold S&P 500 Index top dog elections for July were disclosed step by step.
Dog Metrics Culled S&P 500 Index Stocks by Yield
McGraw Hill, publisher of the Dow Jones S&P 500 Index states:
"The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large cap U.S. equities. There is over USD 5.58 trillion benchmarked to the index, with index assets comprising approximately USD 1.3 trillion of this total. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization."
Only three of nine sectors placed top dogs in this index for July. Top dog Windstream Corp (NASDAQ:WIN) was one of four technology firms in the top ten. The other technology firms were Frontier Communications (NASDAQ:FTR), second; CenturyLink Inc. (NYSE:CTL), third; AT&T, Inc. (NYSE:T), eighth. Three Utilities filled the four, six, and ninth slots: First Energy Corp. (NYSE:FE); Pepco Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POM); TECO Energy (NYSE:TE). Goodyear Tire & Rubber Preferred (GTPPP)(NASDAQ:GT) in fifth place was one of three consumer goods firms that completed the S&P 500 top ten dogs. The remaining consumer goods dogs were Pitney Bowes Inc (NYSE:PBI) in seventh, and Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE:RAI) in tenth place.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
Below is a graph of the relative strengths of the top ten S&P 500 dogs by yield as of market close 6/14/2013 compared to those of the Dow. Historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion (1): S&P 500 Dogs Chased Bulls as Dow Dogs Retreated
The July S&P 500 collection of dividend payers resumed an upward price course set since November, 2012 as total single share price rose 2.1% after June. Aggregate dividend from $1k invested in each ($10k total) for the top ten S&P 500 stocks dropped at a 1.1% rate in the month past.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the top ten increased just 0.03% since June, while aggregate single share price dropped over 8%. Dow dogs decreased their overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten by over $198 or 53% in June was shrunk to $152.51 or 41% in July.
Since S&P 500 index dogs are not the blue chip high quality equivalents of the Dow list, an additional gauge of upside potential was added to the simple high yield metric used to detect bargains.
Actionable Conclusion Too (2): Analysts Project 9.7% Net Gain from Top 20 S&P 500 Dogs In 2014
Top twenty dogs from the S&P 500 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of July 24, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 6.1% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase over 5.3% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta numbers indicated the degree of a stocks movement opposed to market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Guess 10 S&P 500 DiviDogs to Net 9.8% to 23% By July 2014
Ten probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:
Windstream netted $230.318, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by thirteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 15% less than the market as a whole.
Pitney Bowes netted $187.02 based on a mean target price estimate from five analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 72% greater than the market as a whole.
Frontier Communications netted $164.58 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from fourteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 21% less than the market as a whole.
HCP, Inc. (NYSE:HCP) netted $155.49 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from twelve analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 30% less than the market as a whole.
Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) netted $153.59 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from twenty analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 6% opposite the market as a whole.
FirstEnergy Corp. netted $119.64 based on a mean target price estimate from seventeen analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 58% greater than the market as a whole.
Health Care REIT (NYSE:HCN) netted $119.02 based on estimates from thirteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 30% less than the market as a whole.
Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI) netted $111.05 based on estimates from twenty-three analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 33% less than the market as a whole.
CenturyLink netted $100.43 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from eighteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% less than the market as a whole.
AT&T, Inc. netted $98.36 based on estimates from twenty-four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 70% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was about 14.4% on $1k invested in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 22% less than the market as a whole.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Disclosure: I am long DD, GE, INTC, JNJ, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.