Cell Therapeutics Looks Good, Antigenics Looks Better

In response to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments asking for 'VFC's Take' on numerous stocks that readers have found, I'll do my best to address as many as I can, as long as everyone takes a few things into account while reading:

• I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial due diligence, but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own due diligence.
• Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why VFC's Take is not always the mainstream impression.
• I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.

Antigenics (AGEN)

A comment from Lenny:

Hey VFC,

On the message boards, I found this link that states Agen's QS-21 is part of composition of GSK's Cervarix. If true, this is a real positive - right?

Let us know when you get a chance, and GLTA!

Lenny

VFC's Take: Definitely a positive. I think that we have only scratched the surface with regards to the potential of QS-21 - another reason why I think it is completely ignorant for someone to comment on the AGEN stock without taking the potential of QS-21 into consideration, as Adam Feuerstein did weeks ago.

It's safe to assume, in my opinion, that QS-21 could possibly be a part of any new GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) vaccine; and being one of the world's pharmaceutical powerhouses, I like having GSK on our side - or in this case, on Antigenics' side.

For those that question the patent issues regarding QS-21, refer back to one of my earlier posts where I addressed the issue. Simply put - it's a non issue, for now, seeing as AGEN has exclusive patent rights for 10-15 years after the first commercial sale.

Thanks for the insight and it's only a matter of time before AGEN realizes its potential, in my opinion.

Cell Therapeutics (CTIC)

A couple of comments from anonymous posters:

FDA sets April 23 date for CTIC pixantrone review, possible approval by summer.

{...}

Any idea for CTIC? i hold it for almost 3months.others are up big,like jazz,hgsi.i'm very upset.

Read VFC's Earlier Comments on CTIC here.

VFC's Take: On Saturday, Cell Therapeutics issued a press release announcing that the FDA has set April 23 as D-day for Pixantrone meaning, as the anonymous reader posted above, that the drug could receive approval by summer.

I stand by my earlier take that while CTIC is trading at a market cap of 800 million, I like other cancer stocks - especially AGEN - and their lower market caps a little bit better right now.

Additionally, while CTIC could inch up on speculation as April approaches, I don't believe that more than a double is in the works; as compared to AGEN, with a market cap of about 170 million, where a slew of news this fall and winter could send the stock soaring toward a billion dollar market cap.

That's just my opinion, and although CTIC could enjoy even more gains that it already has this year - I think it's a bit of a risky proposition because if the FDA does not like or delays Pixantrone, then a 50% cut - or more - in stock price could be in order.

That being said, I know that there are a lot of CTIC fans out there and if you're looking to get in or add to your position, try to average down for below $1.50. If you are holding the stock since five cents, then keep holding - but hopefully you've taken some gains off the table by now.

April is a long way off, in terms of stock market time, so try to play the volatility. Another market slide could bring this stock to below a buck again, at which point I'd be a lot more enthusiastic about buying than I am now.

This one is on my watch list (I missed the boat on the huge run up) and I'll be following.

Disclosure: Long AGEN, no position in CTIC.

Comments

[dmz50]

I hope your right about Agen.

2009 Sep 08 01:53 PM

[Penn Bioinvestor]

I don't have much to say about AGEN, but CTIC apparently is one of the most over-valued biotech stocks. Despite the high PR skills of CTIC to the investors, Cell Therapeutics Gets Standard Review, instead of priority review.
www.thestreet.com/stor...

2009 Sep 09 12:01 AM

[BONESNJ0]

CTIC May be overvalued in your opinion, However have you done research on the drug pixantrone ? This drug is extremely promising drugs and could very well replace chemo for NHL patients, As the data matures it is getting better and better. If you had done research you would know the market potential for pix alone as a first line treatment is 5-6 Billion Dollars a year range!
Pix is proven to be far more effective treating NLH than chemo.

End of Treatment 18 Month Follow-Up
---------------- ------------------
CR/CRu CR/CRu
---------------- ------------------
Pixantrone 20.0% 25.7%
Control 5.7% 7.1%
P Value 0.021 0.005

ORR ORR
---------------- ------------------
Pixantrone 37.1% 40.0%
Control 14.3% 14.3%
P Value 0.003 0.001

End of Treatment 18 Month Follow-Up
---------------- ------------------
Progression Free Progression Free
Survival Survival
---------------- ------------------
Pixantrone 4.7 months 5.6 months
Control 2.6 months 2.6 months
P Value 0.007 (HR = 0.60) 0.002 (HR = 0.56)

Median Overall Median Overall
Survival Survival
---------------- ------------------
Pixantrone 8.1 months 10.2 months
Control 6.9 months 6.9 months
P Value 0.54 (HR = 0.88) 0.3 (HR = 0.82)

independent pathologists where 40% of pixantrone recipients were alive, compared to 27% for standard chemotherapy at the 1 year landmark period. We plan to submit these updated safety and efficacy data to our NDA as part of the 120 Day update."


On Sep 09 12:01 AM Penn Bioinvestor wrote:

> I don't have much to say about AGEN, but CTIC apparently is one of
> the most over-valued biotech stocks. Despite the high PR skills of
> CTIC to the investors, Cell Therapeutics Gets Standard Review, instead
> of priority review.
> www.thestreet.com/stor...

2009 Sep 24 05:53 AM

[Ellito]

BONESNJO,
Agree with you.
CTIC is undervalued at this point.
The potential is really great.

2009 Sep 25 10:33 PM