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Bespoke recently asked the question: Did Barrick jinx gold again?

Now we have the answer and it doesn't look pretty. Barrick's (ABX) de-hedging program may have actually driven up the gold price with its buying, according to this report [emphasis mine]:

Dehedging by the world's largest gold producer, Barrick Gold Corp., has been the driving force behind gold's move above $1,000 a troy ounce this week, a price level analysts say is unsustainable.

Barrick said late Tuesday that it will close its gold hedges at a total cost of $1.9 billion over the next 12-months...

"We have more buying to do," the Barrick spokesman said.

India's gold market, which is one of the largest sources of physical gold demand, is showing signs of lukewarm demand. What's more, I posted a few days ago that the US bond market could be poised for a rally. Could this rally in gold be the final capitulation of the bond bears (and conversely the gold bulls)?

I remain a long-term commodity bull, but nothing goes straight up. For the gold bugs who want to send me hate mail, I refer you to this.

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  •  
    it doesn't matter who is responsible, fact is the fact
    Sep 10 09:00 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Anyday now the USA Government is going to smash the hell out of gold. Be very careful, trading gold is a very hard thing to do. When there is stress in the fiat money system governments need to make it clear to investors/its people that gold is not safer than the government run fiat money system.

    To do this, huge amount of gold are sold over short period of time.
    $1000.00/Ounce could become $900.00/ounce shortly.

    If the governments do not jump in, then we are going to $1250.00
    My bet is the governments have a vested interest in take the market down
    Sep 10 11:18 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If you are a bull buy carefully here or do not add to new positions... just remember, just because they are in the gold business does not mean they are not subject to the herd mentality. Look at the airline business; they put hedges on at the top of the oil market. This might actually be a sign of extreme bullish sentiment.

    Personally, I believe gold looks very dicey here. Sentiment, in metals is at very high levels, especially in silver, while running into significant overhead resistance. Meanwhile sentiment in the dollar is at the extreme low levels requisite for a reversal, while running into a zone of support. Caution is warranted.
    Sep 10 11:24 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There is never a bad time to own gold. It will always have and store value. It has been this way throughout the history of man. The US can do nothing to change that.
    Sep 10 11:46 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I feel much better listening to a total stranger.
    thank you.


    On Sep 10 10:20 AM buy all dips wrote:

    > This is still a dip buy market even though the economy sucks. Market
    > will close green. When it's time 2 sell I will say so.
    >
    > good articles: urlshort1.blogspot.com//
    Sep 10 11:49 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    But there are bad times to buy it...

    On Sep 10 11:46 AM The EconomicJoker wrote:

    > There is never a bad time to own gold.
    Sep 10 11:49 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I think China has ecclipsed India as a market driver for both gold and silver. They certainly have been adding to their central bank positions with bullion.
    Another driver is pressure by the CFTC in that they are monitoring short positions, and considerinig caps on futures. This should attenuate the recoil from testing 1K gold.
    To echo Bill L, one has to be wise and buy in the dips. However, metals still look strong fundamentally IMHO, and bargains are out there. I prefer emerging producers over the large producers at this point.
    Sep 10 11:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I agree with Boot and his comments on China.

    It appears that nearly simulataneously with Barrick's decision, China was moving there physical reserves from London to HK.
    Sep 10 12:16 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Interesting! But i agree with some people here, and that is that is not sustainable at this level. It might be true that Barrick ran the price up, but that all she rode!

    There is extreme bull sentiments for gold, and extreme bear sentiments for dollar! Usually at a extreme, is when things start reversing....let's hope this is true, because i want a stronger dollar to have more buying power oversees! :)
    Sep 10 12:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    One wonders how this $1.9 Billion cost affects Barrick's breakeven: they have previously stated that their breakeven is [was] at least $700 an ounce: clearly it must now be significantly higher.

    Not positive for the stock, or for gold, IMO. Had they wanted to let their hedges roll off without replacement would be one thing, but to spend real dollars to terminate them is a speculation on the price of gold, not a business decision.
    Sep 10 12:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Final as in "final capitulation" means the last. This may signal a turning point of the near term trend and a pullback however it will not be the end of the bull run and we will see high highs in GOLD!
    Sep 10 01:12 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Long gold. Not losing sleep over Barrick dehedging. Obviously they have to get out of their massive losing hedged position. With the Chinese promoting gold investing in television ads, I hardly think that Barrick is in a position to control the market - or even to signal its direction (apart from up).

    Techinically, $1000 gold was toppy in March 2008. That is hardly the case today, where $1000 gold is now "dirt cheap," to quote Richard Russell, from back in 2003 (when gold was in the $300-400 range).

    www.gold-eagle.com/gol...

    We'll soon be reading, "$1000 gold - no longer available."

    laurencehunt.blogspot....
    Sep 10 03:32 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I don't know if they have the gold to do it, nor that they want to give up what gold they have.


    On Sep 10 11:18 AM James Lewis wrote:

    > Anyday now the USA Government is going to smash the hell out of gold.
    > Be very careful, trading gold is a very hard thing to do. When there
    > is stress in the fiat money system governments need to make it clear
    > to investors/its people that gold is not safer than the government
    > run fiat money system.
    >
    > To do this, huge amount of gold are sold over short period of time.
    >
    > $1000.00/Ounce could become $900.00/ounce shortly.
    >
    > If the governments do not jump in, then we are going to $1250.00
    >
    > My bet is the governments have a vested interest in take the market
    > down
    Sep 10 04:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good article and good sleuthing.

    No one sends hate mail like the gold bugs.

    What I think is significant is you only got 16 hate mails, last time I said something rude about gold I got 50, could that mean gold is going to go down?
    Sep 10 07:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    On Sep 10 07:43 PM Andrew Butter wrote:

    > Good article and good sleuthing.
    >
    > No one sends hate mail like the gold bugs.
    >
    > What I think is significant is you only got 16 hate mails, last time
    > I said something rude about gold I got 50, could that mean gold >is going to go down?
    ----------------------...

    Wow, you know Andrew, that's a clever idea. I tend to ignore the cranky comments, but there may well be an some interesting sentiment data in them. It never occurred to me to do frequency analysis on the inane, but one does suspect that so long as we keep hearing "Goldman-bankster-vampire squid-fiat currency" the market will keep going up.
    Sep 11 01:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I believe that the author has misunderstood the Barrick dehedging. They are not actually buying the gold for delivery but instead raising money by issuing new shares (dilution of existing shareholders) to pay off the hedge contracts. This is akin to defaulting on delivery of the goods promised.
    Sep 11 03:40 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I believe that the author has misunderstood the Barrick dehedging. They are not actually buying the gold for delivery but instead raising money by issuing new shares (dilution of existing shareholders) to pay off the hedge contracts. This is akin to defaulting on delivery of the goods promised.
    Sep 11 03:41 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Barrick is an insider. Insiders are not immune to bubble mentality, but they know more than the retail trader. One should be careful about being on the other side of a trade with an insider. As Buffett said, "if you look around the poker table and can't tell who the sucker is, it's you".
    Sep 11 04:57 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I totally agree with Kybl! Read Antal Fekete's article on what's really going on. There dehedging plan is nothing more than a ponzi scheme. They are naked short 9.5 million ounces! The capped price of gold at 1,000 dollars is to costly and can no longer be defended.
    Physical gold is no longer traded. Only paper derivatives. Watch and learn a valuable lesson in the coming weeks and months. You are going to be shocked and awed at what you are about to witness in regards to gold and silver.
    Sep 11 08:10 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    At the bottom Barrick was hedged big time. Now after an 8 year run from 300 to 1000 Barrick will remove the hedge. Idiots!!
    Sep 11 10:54 AM | Link | Reply
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