Stephen Simpson, CFA
Long only, growth at reasonable price, value, research analyst

Should Traders Try To Play The Odds With Cyclacel?

To be very clear from the get-go, I'm not bullish on the long-term prospects for Cyclacel (NASDAQ:CYCC), nor those of its lead drug sapacitabine. I think the odds favor a negative outcome for the company's Phase III trial (SEAMLESS), and I think the remainder of the pipeline is unlikely to generate much investor enthusiasm in the absence of a licensing agreement.

That said, I'm surprised that Cyclacel trades where it does. By my math, Cycalcel trades with implied odds of sapacitabine success of less than 12%. While that may ultimately prove prescient, it seems out of line with the implied odds that other controversial oncology companies like Aeterna Zentaris (NASDAQ:AEZS), Northwest Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ:NWBO), ImmunoCellular...

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