To be very clear from the get-go, I'm not bullish on the long-term prospects for Cyclacel (CYCC), nor those of its lead drug sapacitabine. I think the odds favor a negative outcome for the company's Phase III trial (SEAMLESS), and I think the remainder of the pipeline is unlikely to generate much investor enthusiasm in the absence of a licensing agreement.
That said, I'm surprised that Cyclacel trades where it does. By my math, Cycalcel trades with implied odds of sapacitabine success of less than 12%. While that may ultimately prove prescient, it seems out of line with the implied odds that other controversial oncology companies like Aeterna Zentaris (AEZS), Northwest Biotherapeutics (...
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