Results from the NYSE International 100 Index calculated as of July 29, 2013, projecting price upside results one year hence showed Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE), the Brazilian miner, loaded up a near 34% gain. Eight more top-yielding NYSE International stocks showed double-digit percentage one-year price upsides. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (NYSE:SNP) gushed 30.97%; VimpelCom Ltd (NYSE:VIP) called a 25% gain; ENI S.p.A. (NYSE:E) hit a 17.46% upside; ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) rolled out a 16.68% gain; EnCana Corp. (NYSE:ECA) sourced a 16.95% upside; Canadian Imperial Bank (NYSE:CM) deposited a 13.1% gain; BP PLC (NYSE:BP) drilled a 12.41% upside; Ecopetrol SA (NYSE:EC) fueled a 11.12% price gain.
The chart above used one-year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment to compare 10 NYSE International 100 Index stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This article reported results of the NYSE International 100 Index as one of 14 in a series of index-specific articles devoted to dividend yield and price upside results. Prompted by Seeking Alpha reader requests, the series has supplied results for these stock indices: Dow 30; Barron's 15 Gems; Russell 2000; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 1000; NASDAQ 100; NYSE International 100; Mergent Dividend Achievers; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29.
This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any index and compared that index side by side with the Dow. Below, the Arnold NYSE International 100 Index top dog selections for July were disclosed step by step.
Dog Metrics Screened NYSE International 100 Stocks by Yield
The NYSE states, "The NYSE International100 Index tracks the largest 100 non-U.S. common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. As of year-end 2004, the companies represented have a combined market capitalization (float-adjusted) of $4.3 trillion. Together they represent over one-quarter of the total market capitalization of all common stocks listed on the NYSE."
As of July 29, the top of 10 NYSE International dogs by yield was one of two technology firms, VimpelCom Ltd. BCE, Inc. (NYSE:BCE), the other technology firm, placed seventh. A single utility, National Grid PLC (NYSE:NGG) placed second. The lone financial firm, Westpac Banking Corp. (NYSE:WBK), placed third. A single healthcare firm AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE:AZN) was sixth. Five basic materials firms completed the NYSE International top 10: Ecopetrol SA; China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.; Vale S.A.; ArcelorMittal; ENI S.p.A. The basic materials entrants placed fourth, fifth and eighth through 10th. In all, just five of nine sectors were represented on this International list.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
A graph below compares the relative strengths of the top 10 NYSE International 100 dogs by yield as of market close 7/29/2013 with those of the Dow. Historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in each of the 10 highest-yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those 10 stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion 1: NYSE International 100 Dogs Get Bullish as Dow Dogs Shrink from Bear
NYSE International 100 top dividend payers returned to a bull path after June. In the past month NYSE International 100 top 10 dog dividend from $1k invested in each of the top 10 dropped 11% while aggregate single share price popped up 11%.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the top 10 increased just 0.03% since June, while aggregate single share price dropped over 8%. Dow dogs decreased their overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the 10 exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the 10 by over $198 or 53% in June was shrunk to $152.51 or 41% in July.
Since NYSE International 100 dogs are not the blue-chip high-quality equivalents of the Dow list, an additional gauge of upside potential was added to the simple high-yield metric used to pull bargains.
Actionable Conclusion 2: Wall Street Wizard Wisdom Weighed to Wrest Over 14% Net Gain from Top 20 NYSE International 100 Dogs In 2014
Top 20 dogs from the NYSE International 100 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of July 29, 2013, and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the 10 highest-yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those 20 stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the 20 highest-yielding stocks and aggregate one-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 10% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase nearly 8.8% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock's movement opposite of market direction.
Actionable Conclusion 3: Analysts Forecast 10 NYSE International 100 DiviDogs to Net 13.5% to 44.7% By July 2014
Ten probable profit-generating trades from $1k investments revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:
Vale S.A. netted $447.42 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from 19 analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 49% greater than the market as a whole.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. netted $350.16, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 43% less than the market as a whole.
VimpelCom Ltd netted $338.27 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from 18 analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 58% more than the market as a whole.
ENI S.p.A. netted $205.86 based on a mean target price estimate from three analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 66% more than the market as a whole.
AcelorMittal netted $198.58 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 148% greater than the market as a whole.
EnCana Corp. netted $195.02 based on estimates from 23 analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 41% more than the market as a whole.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce netted $158.52 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 20% less than the market as a whole.
BP PLC netted $154.17 based on a mean target price estimate from eight analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 71% more than the market as a whole.
Ecopetrol SA netted $152.81 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from 12 analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 32% less than the market as a whole.
National Grid PLC netted $135.18, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from two analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 73% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was over 23.3% on $1k invested in each of these 10 dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 27% greater than the market as a whole.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
The gains noted above did not factor in any tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source of "dividends" from any investment.
Disclosure: I am long DD, GE, INTC, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.