Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets 22 comments
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Greenspan resurfaces now and again for money to make pronouncements. Today he acknowledged that gold is rising because investors are losing confidence in paper currencies.
It’s a short week and volume is still light perhaps since many traders are still away. But, as we’ve always said, they never put volume data on your monthly brokerage statement.
Gold is an interesting story and there’s a lot happening as it tries to break sharply beyond obvious resistance levels. A good story is circulating from Reuters regarding Barrick Gold (ABX), and well analyzed by Jesse’s Café Americain.
We end the week tomorrow with Consumer Sentiment data.
The big story may well be how many major markets are moving to overhead resistance and gaps long highlighted on weekly charts by this blog. This could be the extent of the rally or perhaps mark just an important way point for bulls. It’s certainly an important crossroads for us.
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Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: SPY, RSP, VTI, MDY, IWM, QQQQ, IGM, IGN, IGV, FDN, XLB, XLY, XLI, XLF, IYR, XHB, EMB, UDN, GLD, DBC, XLE, DBB, XME, MOO, EFA, EEM, EWJ, EWY, EWT, EWA, EWC, EWZ and RSX.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
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I'm starting to believe this rally and now i'm starting to think all this cheap money could spark the mother of all booms in just about every asset class until it is reigned in. See todays Bloomberg about all the Chinese gearing up to invest in shares and posible sovereign wealth fund investment in US realestate. If you take away all the inventory, things could move from bust to boom incredibly quickly. Just look what clunkers did to cars.
I don't think that is correct. Much of the 'extra money' placed in the system is idle, banks not lending, stronger consumer credit standards, end users not even wanting the credit after feeling all of the pain. Just when everyone thinks that this rally is real is when it will reverse.
On Sep 11 07:38 AM ozcutty wrote:
> Chuckys not buying and Buckys falling, i like it David!
> I'm starting to believe this rally and now i'm starting to think
> all this cheap money could spark the mother of all booms in just
> about every asset class until it is reigned in. See todays Bloomberg
> about all the Chinese gearing up to invest in shares and posible
> sovereign wealth fund investment in US realestate. If you take away
> all the inventory, things could move from bust to boom incredibly
> quickly. Just look what clunkers did to cars.
Greenspan has lowered himself to the level of a "bank whore" like Jim Cramer. Wait a minute. I look around at the mess he left as a legacy, maybe he is elevating himself.
Cnbc "Squawked" about the huge position that Paulson & Co. had in gold several months ago, I should have known this broken little man would show up again.
When bank stocks were being driven into the ground, and Cnbc was "Squacking" about the huge short position Paulson & Co. had in financials, who was going around Washington backing up the people pushing for the nationalization of the large banks?
What the cockroaches @ Cnbc never got around to telling anyone was that Greenspan was on Paulson's payroll.
www.davemanuel.com/200.../
Well, guess its time to delete my profile.
Starting to sound like time to short the market...
On Sep 11 07:38 AM ozcutty wrote:
> Chuckys not buying and Buckys falling, i like it David!
> I'm starting to believe this rally and now i'm starting to think
> all this cheap money could spark the mother of all booms in just
> about every asset class until it is reigned in. See todays Bloomberg
> about all the Chinese gearing up to invest in shares and posible
> sovereign wealth fund investment in US realestate. If you take away
> all the inventory, things could move from bust to boom incredibly
> quickly. Just look what clunkers did to cars.
My own opinion is that recovery would put S&P earnings at 80, so if we get near S&P 1200 the rally will be about done, even based on optimistic forward looking numbers.
> I don't think that is correct. Much of the 'extra money' placed
> in the system is idle, banks not lending, stronger consumer credit
> standards, end users not even wanting the credit after feeling all
> of the pain. Just when everyone thinks that this rally is real is
> when it will reverse.
On Sep 11 08:05 AM predictorman1000 wrote:
> Weren't all the indicators looking just like this a few weeks ago
> when we headed lower?
On Sep 11 08:46 AM Night_Rider wrote:
>
> Starting to sound like time to short the market...
>
> On Sep 11 07:38 AM ozcutty wrote:
Gold may drop back for a short while, but the weak dollar and over-high stock prices will soon see it move back again, and $1200 by Christmas is on.
And my natural gas looks like it may start to repay me, though it has to move a lot to get me back to where I started!
So, I'm still long gold and short dollar, with nat. gas closing on the rails.
On Sep 11 02:31 PM Diogenes of Sinope wrote:
> Something weird is going on: Dollar lower, oil lower, gold over a
> kilo-buck, stocks lower. Must be September.
I think short term technical rebound is around the corner for the dollar index
I have a bit invested in South Korea, and have had for a long time...
I see my investments there resuming their growth pattern now, and should regain their prior levels over the next few months.
Yes, the banks are buying their own bonds and the the FED is buying treasuries. Individual investors who have retired or are close to it have been told to buy corporate bonds and treasuries as safe havens. If I were 65 or older and had avoided the mess of last Fall, I would not be eager to "get back into the market".
You also have younger investors, day traders, portfolio managers, etc. who are all chasing the returns; either being highly speculative or not wanting to underperform others in this surprise continued move up.
And then you have the HFT programs and the Goldman Sachs of the world who know how to take advantage of the uncertainty and bi-polar nature of the market vs. economy.
I'm certain there has been a desperate push by the FED and banks and investment companies to get money off the sidelines and back into the market. It will either boost their liquidity and encourage more money to come in as it goes higher, or it will provide the chips for the more seasoned players to take off the table from those not quite as good at poker or placing their bets on the craps table.
The more people in the casino the more money for the house and experienced players and the cocktail servers, dealers, and bartenders. $5 bets at the craps table, $2 one-deck balckjack, and double odds Pai-Gow payouts - Don't you want to join in the fun?