Fast Food Industry's Weakness Is Nothing New

Wednesday’s news about McDonald’s (MCD) sales softness made the restaurant universe move and pulled down other Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) operators (YUM, BKC).

But this should not have been new news. The QSR sector has been weakening for some time, as the table of selected “national/international” QSR and Casual Dining operators, 6 quarters of Same Store Sales (SSS) shows:

SSS, CQ			Q1 2008	Q2 2008	Q3 2008	Q4 2008	Q1 2009	Q2 2009
McDonald's		s	2.9	3.4	4.7	5	4.7	3.5
Wendy's (WEN)		c	-1.6	0.1	-0.2	3.6	0.3	-0.4
Taco Bell (est’d)		s	7.4	7.0	8	9	2	1
Burger King		s	5.6	5.6	3	1.7	1.6	-4.5
Olive Garden (DRI)		s	5.7	5.8	2.4	0.8	-1.4	-0.6
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)		c	-1.8	-4.1	-4.7	-7	-3.2	-3
Chili's (EAT)		c	1.6	3.4	-3	-4.2	-5.2	-9.4
Applebee's (DIN)		s	0.5	-1.7	-3.1	-4.6	-3	-4.3

But we are not sure yet we can see that the casual dining operators' same store sales have stabilized absolutely, but they should improve relatively, versus depressed Q3/ especially Q4 2008. Improved restaurant operator optimism, of casual dining operators same store sales trend has returned, second month in a row, as the RBC/Larry Miller Operator & Buyside Survey, notes below. And the National Restaurant Association Operators, Conference Board and Reuters/UM surveys are better, as well.

Note: Taco Bell data: Per Restaurant Research, YUM does not breakout routinely.

Disclosure: no stock positions.