All Economic Data Turning Up 11 comments
September 11, 2009
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The data on foreign trade show both imports and exports looking up.
This pattern--a small upturn after a huge decline--is present in lots of current data, including,
Retail sales
Real consumer spending
Car sales
Consumer confidence
Industrial production
Housing starts
Building permits
New home sales
Existing home sales
Purchasing managers index
Capital goods orders
Total business sales
Stock market
Real consumer spending
Car sales
Consumer confidence
Industrial production
Housing starts
Building permits
New home sales
Existing home sales
Purchasing managers index
Capital goods orders
Total business sales
Stock market
None of these has regained its pre-recession peak, so they all resemble the foreign trade chart above. I always caution against interpreting one month's data as a new trend, but when all the data are turning up for the last month, then it sure as heck is a new trend. The recession is over. Now our goal is to regain the lost ground. And to figure out how to shift our businesses from recession-mode to recovery mode.
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This article has 11 comments:
No bear market blip then? Nothing like the recovery in the 30's, just prior to the economy finally falling right over the cliff and the stock market loosing 80% of it's value?
A stimulus spending bounce is all that you see, and it will fade like the evening sun.
On Sep 11 06:13 AM Davewmart wrote:
> Great news! All the data go up for a month so the recession must
> be over!
> No bear market blip then? Nothing like the recovery in the 30's,
> just prior to the economy finally falling right over the cliff and
> the stock market loosing 80% of it's value?
So, Dr. Bill feel free to jump into the markets with both feet! Go ahead bet the farm! Hell, bet the family jewels too! Good luck. Because where you are going financially, you're going to not just need luck - but a miracle!
'Yeah, because what happened in the Great Depression is so common. I mean, yeah, it has only happened once in the history of this nation (on the back of liquidationist monitary policy), but sure, it is certain to happen again this time no matter how opposite the monitary policy is from being liquidationist [note sarcasm].'
Actually, no.
There have been several other severe depressions analogous to the 30'S
Spell check is invaluable for credibility.
My position is that the Great Depression didn't just happen. It was caused by liquidationist monetary (happy?) policy. If you can find an example where it happened otherwise (war, plague, and natural disaster induced depressions excluded), then I'll give your argument some credibility.
On Sep 11 01:18 PM Davewmart wrote:
> thiazole said:
> 'Yeah, because what happened in the Great Depression is so common.
> I mean, yeah, it has only happened once in the history of this nation
> (on the back of liquidationist monitary policy), but sure, it is
> certain to happen again this time no matter how opposite the monitary
> policy is from being liquidationist [note sarcasm].'
> Actually, no.
> There have been several other severe depressions analogous to the
> 30'S
> Spell check is invaluable for credibility.
Speaking of spell checker, is "loosing" a word?
On Sep 11 06:13 AM Davewmart wrote:
> Great news! All the data go up for a month so the recession must
> be over!
> No bear market blip then? Nothing like the recovery in the 30's,
> just prior to the economy finally falling right over the cliff and
> the stock market loosing 80% of it's value?
'The recession is over. Now our goal is to regain the lost ground. And to figure out how to shift our businesses from recession-mode to recovery mode.'
It ain't necessarily so.
'Speaking of spell checker, is "loosing" a word? '
Yes.
'loosing
- 2 dictionary results
loose
/lus/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [loos] Show IPA adjective, loos⋅er, loos⋅est, adverb, verb loosed, loos⋅ing.
Use loosing in a Sentence
See web results for loosing
See images of loosing
–adjective
1. free or released from fastening or attachment: a loose end.
2. free from anything that binds or restrains; unfettered: loose cats prowling around in alleyways at night.
3. uncombined, as a chemical element.
4. not bound together: to wear one's hair loose.
5. not put up in a package or other container: loose mushrooms.
6. available for disposal; unused; unappropriated: loose funds.
7. lacking in reticence or power of restraint: a loose tongue.
8. lax, as the bowels.
9. lacking moral restraint or integrity; notorious for his loose character.
10. sexually promiscuous or immoral; unchaste.
11. not firm, taut, or rigid: a loose tooth; a loose rein.
12. relaxed or limber in nature: He runs with a loose, open stride.
13. not fitting closely or tightly: a loose sweater.
14. not close or compact in structure or arrangement; having spaces between the parts; open: a loose weave.
15. having few restraining factors between associated constituents and allowing ample freedom for independent action: a loose federation of city-states.
16. not cohering: loose sand.
17. not strict, exact, or precise: a loose interpretation of the law.
18. Sports.
a. having the players on a team positioned at fairly wide intervals, as in a football formation.
b. (of a ball, hockey puck, etc.) not in the possession of either team; out of player control.
–adverb
19. in a loose manner; loosely (usually used in combination): loose-flowing.
–verb (used with object)
20. to let loose; free from bonds or restraint.
21. to release, as from constraint, obligation, or penalty.
22. Chiefly Nautical. to set free from fastening or attachment: to loose a boat from its moorings.
23. to unfasten, undo, or untie, as a bond, fetter, or knot.
24. to shoot; discharge; let fly: to loose missiles at the invaders.
25. to make less tight; slacken or relax.
26. to render less firmly fixed; lessen an attachment; loosen.
–verb (used without object)
27. to let go a hold.
28. to hoist anchor; get under way.
29. to shoot or let fly an arrow, bullet, etc. (often fol. by off): to loose off at a flock of ducks.
30. Obsolete. to become loose; loosen.
—Idioms
31. break loose, to free oneself; escape: The convicts broke loose.
32. cast loose,
a. to loosen or unfasten, as a ship from a mooring.
b. to send forth; set adrift or free: He was cast loose at an early age to make his own way in the world.
33. cut loose,
a. to release from domination or control.
b. to become free, independent, etc.
c. to revel without restraint: After the rodeo they headed into town to cut loose.
34. hang or stay loose, Slang. to remain relaxed and unperturbed.
35. let loose,
a. to free or become free.
b. to yield; give way: The guardrail let loose and we very nearly plunged over the edge.
36. on the loose,
a. free; unconfined, as, esp., an escaped convict or circus animal.
b. behaving in an unrestrained or dissolute way: a bachelor on the loose.
37. turn loose, to release or free, as from confinement: The teacher turned the children loose after the class.
Origin:
1175–1225; (adj.) ME los, loos < ON lauss loose, free, empty; c. OE lēas (see -less ), D, G los loose, free; (v.) ME leowsen, lousen, deriv. of the adj.
Related forms:
loosely, adverb
looseness, noun
Synonyms:
2. unbound, untied, unrestricted, unconfined. 10. libertine, dissolute, licentious. 17. vague, general, indefinite. 20. loosen, unbind. 21. liberate. 25. ease.
Antonyms:
1. bound. 10. chaste. 25. tighten.
Dictionary.com Unabridged
Based on the Random House Dictionary, © Random House, Inc. 2009.
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