New XM SkyDock Offers Sirius Investors Nice Profit Margin 43 comments
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By Brandon Matthews
It’s made headlines around the globe. Sirius XM Radio’s (SIRI) new XM SkyDock has instantly become the “best of breed” before it's even hit the market. I’ll admit, best of breed may be pushing it in a space where the newest offering is the only one of its kind, but I cannot recall an Apple (AAPL) iPhone or iPod accessory that has been this anticipated, and that anticipation is building for its October 19, 2009 release date. For consumers, the XM SkyDock is certainly an amazing piece of hardware, as it turns every one of the 40 million iPhone and iPod Touch devices (and growing) currently in use into full fledged Satellite Radios. This accessory dock provides a means to merge iTunes with live satellite radio, allowing iTunes users to discover, buy or listen to new music with a device already in the hands of millions of consumers.
Not much if anything has been mentioned about this Sirius XM and Apple partnership which allows Apple customers a way of obtaining live content on their iPod Touches and iPhones. I was disappointed that we did not hear more of this from the Apple media event that took place on September 9th. One of the main criticisms of Apple iPods has been their lack of live content. Sirius XM now fills that void. Likewise, Satellite Radio consumers will be flocking to Apple retailers to purchase new iPod Touches and iPhones to take advantage of this cross branding technology. With a price point of $119.00, it is certainly a fair price for a device with so much capability and promise. The only question remaining is not whether the market will embrace this new technology, but whether or not there will be enough units on store shelves this holiday shopping season to meet demand.
From an investment perspective, the XM SkyDock certainly offers SIRI investors a new twist in the form of a very nice profit margin. Initial rumors pegged the retail price at $99, a full $20 less than the eventual $119 suggested at the product unveiling. Experience teaches that this increase was most likely due to market research determining the best price that the most number of people would be willing to pay. Certainly there have been no complaints about the price point. Looking at the XM SkyDock, we can quickly determine that the profit margin must be very nice for Sirius XM Radio.
Let’s face it…it doesn’t come with an iPhone or iPod Touch. The head unit is the Apple device itself, and the wide array of programming functions that offer everything from Satellite Radio to sports scores to stock quotes comes from a free download app from the iTunes store that will be released with the SkyDock next month. The SkyDock does offer Sirius XM’s new “power-Connect” FM transmitter but so does the new Sirius Stratus 6 and XM Onyx which are offered for $69 and $79 respectively. These radios also come with a Satellite Radio chip, antenna, aux input jack, car dock and a full head unit with LED display and a microprocessor. That’s not to say it's overpriced as the Sirius Sportster 5 will run you about $169, and offers a lot less in functionality now that the SkyDock has been unveiled. Clearly a rather tidy profit is built into the price of the SkyDock. Might there be a revenue share agreement with Apple? Might the same be true of iTunes purchases made through the device? No analyst has posed the question.
Investment benefits don’t end there, as the big push will no doubt be towards getting Apple users to subscribe to the top tier, XM with the “Best of Sirius” package which will allow consumers to get everything Satellite Radio has to offer from NFL and MLB to Howard Stern and Oprah. With 40 million Apple devices out there and growing, the profit margin on Sirius XM’s new offering may give the company an influx of increased revenue from a source other than subscription revenue and more importantly, profit.
Position: Long SIRI
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This article has 43 comments:
On Sep 13 08:13 AM R A F wrote:
> SIRI-Doom = A cross between Chicken Little annd the Boy Who Cried
> Wolf!! He should be prosecuted for repeatedly ignoring the true facts
> of the non compliance notification that Sirius XM will receive. These
> basic facts are: 1. SIriius XM will have a minimum of six months
> and a maximum of twelve months beyond 9/14/09 to correct the issue
> (SIRI must exceed sustained trading above 1.00 - realistically within
> twelve months) before any delisting would take place. Sirius XM would
> not go to the OTC - if absolutely necessary after twelve months,
> the company would complete a reverse split to remain compliant on
> the Nasdaq. Mel has confirmed in public comments at the last quarterly
> release that there will be no reverse split unless this becomes absolutely
> required within the six to twelve months period mentioned above for
> mandatory action - which would only occur if SIRI remains below 1.00
> in the time frame that is realistically up to one year from now.
>
> So - How to trade this story at present: The facts above have been
> well known by the markets and actively discussed and discounted in
> recent weeks. For this reason, any near term selling is likely to
> come from continuing shorts who are attempting to pressure the markets
> for purposes of covering. It is highly unlikely that legitimate holders
> of long positions will be sellers, as they have had ample time to
> consider the true facts and have decided to remain invested for the
> substantial upside potential that is projected into the future. Once
> this temporary pressure has been felt and contained, markets will
> immediately begin to anticipate the NEXT story to be discounted and
> acted upon: the likelihood that 3rd and 4th Qtr. releases (in November
> and February) will show continuing -and possibly dramatic - improvements
> in Sirius XM's fundamental condition and outlook. Put all this together
> and it strongly suggests that any near term pullbacks will be treated
> as buying opportunities and that recoveries will follow over the
> near to intermediate term. SIRI is now trading from dominant technical
> strength and potential is projected (based upon all recently completed
> formations) toward 1.00 around yearend; toward 1.25 to 1.50 over
> the next six months to one year; toward 4.00 over the next two years
> (representing a 50% retracement of the declines from 12/05 through
> 2/09).
You are absolutely right! Any pullbacks at this point are great buying opportunities. It hit .65 on friday, but I think it will still go a bit lower in the coming week. I also think it could very well be the last pullback we see before the 3Q call. It is just too risky to sell at this time. We all know that Sirius can go over a dollar at any moment as we approach November. Vongage is a great example of just how fast a stock under a dollar can climb on good news; Sirius will be similar in my opinion. Only about 6 more weeks left to accumulate at under a dollar, if that. No chance of ever being delisted! The reverse split is not as bad as some have made it out to be, and if it is needed to make compliance after a year...so be it. Sirius has proven itself to be a viable investment opportunity since February. If it wasn't a good investment it would have already gone bankrupt...but I don't believe that was really ever in the equation. Siri Doom, you should buy back in this week on the pullback and stay in until the 3Q call. It might make you a bit happier come Christmas time!
Keep the faith!
Long SiriusXM
However - the following example of what actually occurs in cases of reverse splits is very instructive - and favorable - as information that is relative to situations such as this:
Priceline announced plans for a reverse split in May, 2003, when the stock was trading at 2.75. They completed a 1 for 6 reverse split on 6/16/03, and the stock closed at 25.55 on that date. Keep in mind, the split adjusted price for PCLN on 5/2/03 was 18.84, so the stock's performance was favorable immediately after this reverse split occurred. Price performance since that time has been: 8/1/03 31.76; 12/2/03 18.81; 5/12/08 139.86; 9/11/09 162.90
So - Here you have the reality of a stock (PCLN) that has rallied from 18.84 to 162.90 from May '03 through 9 '09 on a slpit adjusted price basis. Only 864% - not bad for all the "fear mongering" that is now surrounding the prospect of a reverse split for SIRI - a highly unlikely but remotely possible event sometime twelve months from now if Sirius XM remains non compliant in terms of price.
So, After ignoring all of those rants I have to say that the Skydock will be BIG for Sirius, It opens up a whole new 'world' of listeners and subscribers. You have to have traveled the world a little to understand how many Americans actually live outside the U.S but crave a little piece of home! All this is now achieved by this simple, inexpensive piece of equipment. This will be BIG for Sirius!
And there is one more thing: Doom, if you can accomplish that, I'll give you a big, fat slobbery kiss as I purchase more shares of Siri stock....
Joseph
The stock will be over $1 before this becomes an issue.
DH
On Sep 13 11:41 AM Siriusly Onboard wrote:
> Well, Looks like they opened the front gate at the loony asylum again
> and guess who they let out! Mr. Doom & Gloom! I am sorry, but
> no 'Sirius' Investor would ever rave like that, it is all very juvenile
> !
> So, After ignoring all of those rants I have to say that the Skydock
> will be BIG for Sirius, It opens up a whole new 'world' of listeners
> and subscribers. You have to have traveled the world a little to
> understand how many Americans actually live outside the U.S but crave
> a little piece of home! All this is now achieved by this simple,
> inexpensive piece of equipment. This will be BIG for Sirius!
The report abuse tab is under each one of his comments.
What the hell is wrong with you??? Is this your whole life?
On Sep 13 04:40 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> SIRI NASDQ ALERT
> SIRI NASDQ ALERT
> SIRI is officially noncompliant of the NasDq $1.00 rule. The clock
> for SIRI delisting from the NasDq is ticking down to disaster.<br/>
>
> SIRI Mel’s answer to the NasDq will include the alarming words “REVERSE
> SPLIT”. The words “REVERSE SPLIT” are going to ring alarms of disaster
> to all who currently hold SIRI stock.
>
> SIRI Mel now has a duty to inform stock holders of the NasDq letter
> and the SIRI response with intention to reverse split. The market
> will be informed regardless of how much money Mel has panned out
> to suppress this news.
Skydock should be released in the next 3 weeks or so...I have a problem with the price, but we will see. I think this takes the ipod touch to a new level. In the past, the iphone had the advantage of being able to get Pandora or whatever in addition to saved content on the road. Iphone users payed their $30.00 web plan for this. Now ipod touch users have a better service SIRIUS XM, through wi-fi and on the road through satelite. I belive many people have their phone and their ipod touch as seperate devices....Or more will opt to get Ipod touch and not bother with the iphone due to it's high data plan charges. For example, bet a blackberry or Pre for data and phone,,,then have ipod touch for al the cool features and live audio content....Using another phone + SIRIUS XM, may still be cheaper than Iphone monthly charges.......ie...Sprint just announced a plan where callers can make unlimited calls to other cell phones reguardless of carrier with $20.00 unlimited data plan......Why would anyone want to play music through their phone in a car is beyond me....A call comes in and the radio get's cut off? bad deal...3g dead spot, The future of SIRIUS XM is not in phone subs....It;s cool for existing subs to have the added convenience...But I don't see many wanting to pay for SATELITE RADIO through their phone....Ipod touch is a great match....Iphone is good for the $2.99 premium
On Sep 13 04:26 PM boston 1 wrote:
> Do not pay attention to idiots and make relevant comments on the
> stock. I have not said anything as of late, but enough is enough.
> Just read or skip the idiot posts. Keep buying on the way down and
> sell some on the way up. Always play with the house's money and the
> stress of not losing your money makes for better investment decisions.
Enough of that from each of us will attract enough attention that maybe they'll block the sucker.
Then we can all get back to rationally discussing.
Shorts are building against SIRI again. Gee, I wonder why.
Besides, if Stern bolts or retires, Sirius/XM is dead in the water. Don't care what the charts or numbers say.
On Sep 13 08:52 AM Richard The Great wrote:
> WOW look at all of the Scared Shorts and nasty R/S comments...These
> SIRI bashers are desperate....Listen you dummies quit with the bashing
> and start with the accumulating. The reason your so negative is because
> you are loosers...Don't you get it. SIRI is in the drivers seat.
> This company will boom and there will be no R/S because they have
> a year to comply. Nobody is listening to you loosers.....Go SIRI!
ticking down to disaster
On Sep 14 12:11 PM jmsithy wrote:
> I would wait one more day to buy back in I see this going lower than
> .64
On Sep 14 12:22 PM Cletis Johannson wrote:
> Uh huh... apparently you haven't heard about spotify.com<br/>Besides,
> if Stern bolts or retires, Sirius/XM is dead in the water. Don't
> care what the charts or numbers say.
Bite me!
On Sep 14 09:00 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> SIRI Mel’s answer to the NasDq will include the alarming words “REVERSE
> SPLIT”. The words “REVERSE SPLIT” are going to ring alarms of disaster
> to all who currently hold SIRI stock.
>
> Shorts are building against SIRI again. Gee, I wonder why.
I see that most of your problem is that you hold a grudge way too long and have a very negative outlook on life. You need to let all that go. Only then will you stop being such an abject failure.
On Sep 14 01:24 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> SHOW YOUR LOVE. Buy SIRI and hold
> ticking down to disaster
>
> On Sep 14 12:11 PM jmsithy wrote:
BTW: Anyone here about Sirius XM in Puerto Rico? I heard something about them getting repeater approval for the next 180 days.
Bought some today for my portfolio.
Mr. Stupid
This isn’t meant to be negative towards SIRI but if this product will be as big as the article seems to indicate, and as a result I would like to increase my position, some additional due diligence is required. I have a couple of questions about some of the presumptions the author makes and would love to hear how the conclusions are reached since as far as I know, this data isn’t available:
“The only question remaining is not whether the market will embrace this new technology, but whether or not there will be enough units on store shelves this holiday shopping season to meet demand.”
How was this conclusion drawn? Are they being pre-sold and are the numbers reported. How many are being produced and what is the expected demand?
“Certainly there have been no complaints about the price point.”
Again, are these being sold already? While market research can offer valuable insight as to the expected market demand, it is far from an exact science and history is littered with products that were incorrectly priced.
Besides this seeming like a great product, what am I missing? Can this information be found somewhere?
I have found this news on European site but can not see anything about it in US new sites.
Google is buying SIRI (again) , is that true? Google considering SIRI for their new operation system competing with Windows. It's called "O".
Apparently someone who works for Google accidentally mentioned it at the dinner party, last week in Houston, during the convention.
Can we have Google to confirm that?