Signs of Global 'Green Shoot' Explosion

The MSCI World Stock Market Index continued its six-month rally and reached a new 11-month high on Friday of 1119.23, the highest close since October 3 last year. From the March low, world stocks have now risen by 62.5% (see chart above).

Saturday's Wall Street Journal was full of stories about positive economic news here and around the world, here's a sample below. Pretty amazing for so much positive news of economic "green shoots" in just a single issue of the WSJ (the last story below was from Friday).

1. Brazil Exits Recession in 1.9% Lift

Brazil pulled itself out of recession in the second quarter with strong performances by its industrial and service sectors. Gross domestic product expanded 1.9% in the second quarter compared with the first period, the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, said Friday.

2. OECD Data Point to Broad Economic Recovery

There are increasingly strong indications that the world economy is on the path to recovery, with both the leading developed and the leading developing economies emerging from a downturn, according to figures released Friday by the OECD.

3. China Industrial Output Rises, Bank Lending Picks Up

The Chinese economy continued to recover in August, official data showed Friday, as the expansion in industry accelerated and bank lending picked up.

4. Economic Confidence Rebounds

Economists and consumers [in the U.S.] are feeling better about the economy a year after the most frightening moments of the financial crisis.

5. Volkswagen to Boost Production in China

Volkswagen AG said Friday it will invest $5.83 billion in increasing production and capacity in China by 2011 in a bid to keep pace with soaring demand.

6. "Fear Gauge" Is Showing Far Less of It

The stock market's "fear gauge" registered a 52-week low Friday, nearly a year after the market sank in the wake of Lehman Brothers' collapse. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index (VIX) hit as low as 22.5 before closing at 24.2, up 2.6% from Thursday.

7. FedEx Raises Outlook, Stokes Hopes for Recovery

FedEx raised its earnings expectations in a further sign that the global economy is stabilizing, citing a recovery in international markets. The package-delivery giant is a bellwether for economic activity.

8. Is the Recession Over? Wait Until 2010 for NBER’s Answer

The economy is pulling out of its downturn, but don’t expect an end-of-recession declaration anytime soon from the National Bureau of Economic Research. One member of its Business Cycle Dating Committee, Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon, said he believes June will mark the trough for the recession that started in December 2007 (MP: In that case, we are now in the third month of an economic expansion). But he expects the NBER’s recession-dating panel to wait six to eight more months before voting on an end date to ensure the economy doesn’t experience a double-dip recession.

Comments

[Gravity404:]

Oman Connect
Yeah, Stanford kept all their client trading in "Secret, offshore jurisdictions and banks" too.

Go market, errr, hype your company somewhere else.

Sep 14 11:41 AM

[Jake2:]

Oman Connect: Or disconnect, as it were. Watch that first step. It's a killer!

Sep 14 12:06 PM

[conceptwizard:]

Sept 14th, 2009

A full 12 % of the worlds shipping fleet lies dormant in Sinapore.

It is so far off the beaten track that nobody ever really comes close, which is why these ships are here. The world's ship owners and government economists would prefer you not to see this symbol of the depths of the plague still crippling the world's economies.
So they have been quietly retired to this equatorial backwater, to be maintained only by a handful of bored sailors. The skeleton crews are left alone to fend off the ever-present threats of piracy and collisions in the congested waters as the hulls gather rust and seaweed at what should be their busiest time of year.
Local fisherman Ah Wat, 42, who for more than 20 years has made a living fishing for prawns from his home in Sungai Rengit, says: 'Before, there was nothing out there - just sea. Then the big ships just suddenly came one day, and every day there are more of them.

'Some of them stay for a few weeks and then go away. But most of them just stay. You used to look Christmas from here straight over to Indonesia and see nothing but a few passing boats. Now you can no longer see the horizon.'

The Global economy is worsening, the BDI is slowing and China exports are down 47%. All this with the Stimulus in full bloom. What happens when it runs out? Have the markets priced in this 6-9 months out, I think not.

Sep 14 01:38 PM

[Old Trader:]

conceptwizard,

Not saying I'm disagreeing with you, but where did you come up with the (what I assume are) quotes from the Chinese fisherman? Bloomberg? Somewhere else? Personally, I tend to put more stock in anecdotal stuff like this, than the spun, massaged numbers that are usually provided in the MSM.


On Sep 14 01:38 PM conceptwizard wrote:

> Sept 14th, 2009
>
> A full 12 % of the worlds shipping fleet lies dormant in Sinapore.
>
>
> It is so far off the beaten track that nobody ever really comes close,
> which is why these ships are here. The world's ship owners and government
> economists would prefer you not to see this symbol of the depths
> of the plague still crippling the world's economies.
> So they have been quietly retired to this equatorial backwater, to
> be maintained only by a handful of bored sailors. The skeleton crews
> are left alone to fend off the ever-present threats of piracy and
> collisions in the congested waters as the hulls gather rust and seaweed
> at what should be their busiest time of year.
> Local fisherman Ah Wat, 42, who for more than 20 years has made a
> living fishing for prawns from his home in Sungai Rengit, says: 'Before,
> there was nothing out there - just sea. Then the big ships just suddenly
> came one day, and every day there are more of them.
>
> 'Some of them stay for a few weeks and then go away. But most of
> them just stay. You used to look Christmas from here straight over
> to Indonesia and see nothing but a few passing boats. Now you can
> no longer see the horizon.'
>
> The Global economy is worsening, the BDI is slowing and China exports
> are down 47%. All this with the Stimulus in full bloom. What happens
> when it runs out? Have the markets priced in this 6-9 months out,
> I think not.

Sep 14 05:30 PM