Trina, SunPower, Clairvoyant: The U.S. PV Hits Just Keep On Coming

By Shyam Mehta

At the risk of sounding slightly self-congratulatory, it feels nice to be right (at least once in a while). A week after the publication of GTM Research's report on U.S. PV manufacturing, which predicted that a major build-out of domestic manufacturing capacity was gathering momentum (the numbers say that the U.S.'s share of module manufacturing capacity will grow from 5 percent in 2008 to 14 percent by 2012), three major announcements vindicated this thesis: Trina Solar (TSL), Clairvoyant, and SunPower (SPWRA) all made declarations this week to establish manufacturing module assembly plants in the U.S.

These developments aren't particularly surprising when one considers the 2.7+ gigawatts of U.S. PV projects in the pipeline over the next half-decade, combined with the knowledge that module assembly has historically followed markets. Barring a few exceptions, however, media attention on the U.S. PV landscape has focused almost exclusively on the demand side of the coin. It's somewhat understandable given that the stimulus funds made available through State Energy Program grants are all deployment-focused and that installation holds more employment creation potential than manufacturing, being more labor intensive.

Still, it's frustrating that this issue continues to be ignored by most: 20,000 manufacturing jobs ain't no joke, especially at a time when unemployment is approaching 10 percent. On top of this, a build-out of PV production in the U.S. will also create all manner of opportunities for their vendors – for example, producers of polysilicon, glass, and encapsulants, and equipment, to name a few. Perhaps most importantly, while deployments uneasily await the return of credit markets to resume, growth in manufacturing is happening here and now.

And not to beat a dead horse, but this development is all the more interesting in light of the recent competing trend of outsourcing PV production to "low-cost" locations. It certainly provides a tangible counterpoint to those in the industry who believe that, like consumer electronics, PV production will eventually be reside almost entirely in Asia. My guess: While this is likely to be true for crystalline silicon cells and wafers (MEMC (WFR), anyone?), the U.S. will be home to a sizeable chunk of thin-film and c-Si module assembly plants over coming years. Then again, with China making all the right noises about gigawatt-scale PV deployment, I could end up having to eat my words. Which, I suppose, is all the more reason to flaunt it when you got it.

Comments

[TinyTim:]

Hey, break out the champagne.

It seemed like a few years ago, many domestic IC manufacturers were doing R&D on PV. It would be nice to keep or expand that here.
Doubtful for crystalline silicon since it has many of the same processes as the lost IC business.

As a desert dweller, I look forward to covering my roof with PV to sell power back to the utility and provide shade for the house. As the price of PV comes down, I expect this to be very a very popular option in this area just a solar hot water was in 1980. Since refrigeration is the main summer load, and PV output generally increases with refrigeration demand, it seems a good match.

Sep 15 10:04 PM

[Jade Queen:]

Suntech's stuff is pretty and reputedly being dumped now. I'm thinking of looking into it, and I live on the Upper Left Coast. I own Suntech and SunPower.

Sep 16 08:39 AM

[Steve Pluvia:]

Shyam, your reports on Greentech Media are by far the best in the industry (along with Eric Wesoff). Your work (and Greentech Media) should be followed closely by anyone interested in this industry.

www.gtmresearch.com/re...

www.gtmresearch.com/re...

Sep 16 11:27 AM

[Robert Cast...:]

Shyam,

The move is a way to get US govt stimulus money. Where is First Solar building to get sub $1 production costs. Look at Oerlikon, seller of thin film vacuum equipment. Yes they are building in Michigan (read U.S. stimulus) but they talk of sub $1 pricing for product made in Asia.

Sep 16 02:48 PM

[FreeCleanSolar:]

These are good developments, especially in light of Tom Friedman's coverage today of the state of U.S. solar power.

He did a tour of applied materials and learned that the of the 14 solar panel factories it’s built around the world in the last two years, not one was in the U.S.

www.nytimes.com/2009/0...

Sep 16 08:41 PM