Soft Landing? Not Yet

by: Eddy Elfenbein

Eddy Elfenbein submits: Second-quarter GDP growth was revised higher to 2.9% today from the initial estimate of 2.5%. I knew this was going to be a higher revision. I just didn't know how much.

The bottomline is that I don't see this as being a soft landing scenario. At least, not just yet. Let's add some perspective. In the 10 quarters previous to Q2, the economy grew by an average of 3.4% a year. Now we're tossing in a 2.9%-er. That's not a big change. It's still well within the bounds of its previous trend. Three of those 10 quarters had growth less than 2.9%.