Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production showing a continued upturn to the aggregate production mostly as a result of a significant “cash-for-clunkers” fueled increase in durable goods while many other components continue to show notable weakness.
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“Final product” consumer durable goods jumped 2.08% on a month-to-month basis while still remaining 12.98% below the level seen just one year ago.
It’s important to note that although the Federal Government's “cash-for-clunkers” policy breathed life into the vehicle components of the durable goods category, home appliances, furniture and carpeting continued its decline dropping 0.81% since July and 18.83% on a year-over-year basis.
Construction supply production has been showing the most severe contraction seen in at least the last 20 years with wood products falling 23.59% on a year-over-year basis.
Finally, HVAC (heating ventilation and air conditioning) appears to be firmly reflecting the substantial pullback in fixed commercial investment falling a stunning 22.10% on a year-over-year basis.
The following charts show the overall consumer durable component along with the Home Appliances, Furniture and Carpeting sub-component on both a time series and year-over-year basis, construction supply production with the wood products sub-component, and general and business related vehicle production all overlaid with the last two recessions for comparisons purposes.