Solar: Energy's New Growth Sector

By Julian Murdoch

The recession wasn't kind to alternative energy -- and none felt the pinch as much as the beleaguered solar power industry. The credit crunch really hit the industry hard, killing installation projects around the world and shrinking demand for solar panels. Solar companies watched their stock prices bottom out with the rest of the market -- only to keep on falling.

Just look at the recent performance of the S&P 500 vs. the two solar ETFs, the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF (TAN) and the Market Vectors Solar ETF (KWT):

Yikes.

Funding issues, in part, kept solar low, even as the market started to recover. Projects rely on financing and, in many countries, government incentives, but as the recession hit, that easy financing and generous incentives dried up. (It didn't help that oil prices also plummeted, bottoming out below $35/barrel, which caused solar to lose much of its competitive allure.)

Take Spain, for example. Prior to 2009, Spain offered such generous subsidies for solar power installations that some analysts estimate almost 40% of the world's solar modules went to Spain. But by the end of 2008, the Spanish government decided it could no longer fund solar power to that level and cut back drastically on the money available. Consequently, demand sunk, and solar panel inventories around the world swelled.

Naturally, prices have dropped, too. Terry Wang, CFO of Trina Solar Limited (TSL), told Reuters during last week's Global Climate and Alternative Energy summit:

"Selling prices (for solar panels) have dropped quarter over quarter at a rate of between ten to twenty-five percent for each quarter."

And it's not over yet. As Mr. Wang continued, "We see the trend, and it's going to continue for the second half of this year at least."

It's not all bad news, though. Mr. Wang and others in the industry expect the price decreases to slow during the first half of 2010 and then stabilize in the second half of the year. Adding to the good news, UBS also forecasts that global solar module demand may grow a whopping 76% next year to 10.5 gigawatts, as credit begins to flow again. (To put that number in perspective, roughly 5.4 gigawatts of solar power were installed globally in 2008, before the bottom dropped out of the industry.)

So not only does UBS expect 2010 to be much better than this year, it'll be almost twice as good as 2008. That's a nice recovery story.

Okay, but where will all of that new demand come from? China, of course, and the U.S.

Chinese And American Demand

Right now, China and the U.S. both lag behind Europe in terms of solar use: China prefers coal, and we Americans like both oil and coal.

But as the Chinese and American governments roll out climate change initiatives, both countries will need to look elsewhere for their energy needs in order to cut greenhouse gas emissions. (It doesn't hurt that alternative energy projects played prominently in both countries' economic stimulus packages.)

Already there are signs of increasing capacity. According to Steve Chan, chief strategy officer of Suntech Power Holdings (STP), China's solar market is currently around 100 megawatts, but it may rise to 400 megawatts next year. The U.S., on the other hand, will see about 350 megawatts installed this year, and expectations are that figure will triple in 2010.

Companies in the sector have already begun rolling up their sleeves. Chinese company Suntech Power Holdings is currently working on establishing its first manufacturing plant in the U.S. (How's that for a switch?)

Nor is it the only company looking to expand its U.S. presence: Trina Solar Limited (TSL), for example, is reportedly looking for partners for a U.S. project. SunPower Corp. (SPWRA), a Calif.-based manufacturer that makes its panels everywhere but the U.S. (including Mexico, the Philippines and China), plans to bring its new facility a bit closer to home. Even good old GE (GE) has launched a solar panel production pilot program in Colorado.

It goes the other way, as well: Last week, U.S. company First Solar (FSLR) announced it would build a huge 2-gigawatt facility in China. In addition, privately held BrightSource Energy also said it is seeking partners in China. (Just a note: According to Reuters, BrightSource is one clean tech companies that could be headed for an IPO late next year.)

Playing The Sun

So demand is coming, and you want to play -- what are your options?

Since, unlike oil, you can't trade solar energy, investment opportunities must come in the form of equities. Either you can do your research and pick a few companies to invest in, or you can go the ETF route.

For ETFs, there are the aforementioned Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF (TAN) and Market Vectors Solar ETF (KWT). Which you choose depends on your opinion of the fine print and their fees, because on a performance basis they are pretty evenly matched:

While past performance never guarantees future returns, take a look at how Trina Solar Limited has performed this year:

Wouldn't that have been a nice call?

Of course, as this past year has shown, solar companies aren't exactly a low-volatility market. But as the alternative-energy push continues, solar may be where the future's at.

Comments

[Mad Hedge F...:]

bdf The solar industry is suffering some 19th century Darwinian style competition, with Chinese manufacturers Suntech (STP) and Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE) clearly dumping panels below cost to gain market share. You may laugh, but I watched the Japanese pursue the same strategy in the seventies and eighties to devastating success. They now control half the US automobile market, and the most profitable half at that. As a solar consumer I shouldn’t care, as the 50% price drop has, with Obama’s generous tax subsidies, made new installations cheaper than obtaining electricity from my local power company (PGE) at 12 cents a kilowatt. It’s just a matter of booking the profit in China instead of Phoenix. But the predatory pricing has also kicked my beloved First Solar (FSLR) in the shins, which has dropped from 44% from $205 to $115 since May. Use the move to pick up FSLR on the cheap. The company is using advanced cadmium telluride based thin film semiconductor technology, which has enabled it to match the Chinese price cuts dollar for dollar, and the engineering will allow them to continue to do so. The Chinese, wedded to an older polysilicon product, can’t keep playing this game, unless they want to hemorrhage cash, or face US anti-dumping enforcement. To see more on the current fundamentals of solar, please click here.

Sep 18 12:50 PM

[ldker:]

I have seen the guy above, the MAD SPAMMER - posting the same comment on each solar article appearing on Alpha for the past month. Mad, when you do this your credibility goes out the window as it appears to be spam to drum up business for your rinky dink operation. If you have nothing new to add, please stop it.

Sep 18 01:33 PM

[Jade Queen:]

I read this with great interest.

Suntech and SunPower have pretty good websites. If you are interested in this sector, you might take a look.

Suntech's site used to be easier to navigate. I personally would make the homeowner navigation easier and showcase the see-throughs and light-throughs better, but I'm only a smallholder and possible purchaser, so what do I know. Suntech's array of products is pretty dazzling.

SunPower should probably take advantage of the issues coming up in commercial real estate and find a site in a high-unemployment U.S. location, splashingly, pr-wise.

Otherwise, if SolarWorld gears up its marketing, SunPower could be challenged by SolarWorld. I have visited the SolarWorld production facility in Oregon, and it is impressive.

The market for solar is sophisticated. Some will do the research to find out where the products are made. What's more, there's the Henry-Ford phenomenon of making things affordable for workers and their friends and families. SolarWorld also has plans to take its cells into schools for kids to assemble into panels. This could be an entree into a DIY market. If kids can do it...oh nevermind, kids can operate anything gadgety these days. It doesn't mean adults think they can, unless some marketer really good at sucking up makes them believe it.

The value of non-explosive, non-polluting, quiet, distributed energy could shake loose some investment money among those boomers who have investments left. There is potential for reducing monthly cost of energy and for possibly having a source of income, should energy costs increase and the monopolies' ways of operating change.

There is also a possibiliy, in Oregon, of financing the improvement so a subsequent owner could assume it. This could arrive elsewhere as well, shaking loose some equity from elders, in areas where there still is equity. In addition, it would encourage new home purchasers to consider cost of operation in their decisions concerning housing.

Places like Gainesville, FL, are going ahead. Their ratepayer-owned utility has good feed-in arrangements for property owners.

At some point, distributed renewable energy is going to break out. The logic for good neighbors who cooperate well is just too convincing in these times.

It will be a while before drilling gets good enough for geothermal to play in the residential market. Some temperate locations don't pencil that well for geo anyway.

I'm baiting the metal bugs here, but I would love to see a solar-cell standard as opposed to a gold standard.

Don't get me wrong, I love Ron Paul. I just see his gold thing as a blip I don't get. The real standard is energy. Marybe I'm more practical than the average ordinary person. I don't get the jewelry thing. I know that's unusual, but in some mini-cultures, I am not that far out there.

Is there such a thing as a geo-cultural economist? If there is, I'm asking again for input from such a person.

I'm all for making the Fed come clean, and as I understand it, Ron Paul is getting closer to getting that, after what, thirty years?

If they open the can of worms that is the Fed, the U.S. will become the destination for soap-opera and tabloid journalists, the world over.

Harlem churchgoers won't be able to get in their churches unless they get up at 5 a.m. to beat the journalist/tourists. Maybe the opportunistic music tourism will even bleed over to Baltimore. Having grown up in Maryland, I hope so. I love some of the parts of the D.C. area outside the core. Oh ok, I love some parts of the core also.

In sales mode, think about a Solar Standard: energy you can cart around, made of sand, with the value embedded from labor input. What's not to like?

I own STP and SunPower.

Sep 18 01:38 PM

[31October:]

Mad Hedgehog Spammer does not read replies.

He is a litterbug, tossing empty bottles of wisdom out the window of a slowly drifting Buick into the information highway. His illegitimate son, Cetin, sometimes bails him out for DUI (Disseminating Useless Incoherency).


On Sep 18 01:33 PM ldker wrote:

> I have seen the guy above, the MAD SPAMMER - posting the same comment
> on each solar article appearing on Alpha for the past month. Mad,
> when you do this your credibility goes out the window as it appears
> to be spam to drum up business for your rinky dink operation. If
> you have nothing new to add, please stop it.

Sep 18 03:56 PM

[Ricard:]

Regarding the author's point about Trina, it would behoove investors to extend the chart to another year or two out. That would really give a fuller perspective of where solar has been, and where it may be going. At least earnings now look much better...

I (amazingly) still hold YGE. Although I originally got in way too early, I've since DCAed down to a price below 8. For some reason, despite good fundamentals, TSL simply performs a lot worse than its peers.

And, regarding Cetin, I must say, he's called this market to a tee, lol. Ignore everything, ignore the fundamentals, ignore anyone who would make the sun shine a little less in your part of the world...just keep at that mantra, and it will happen...I wish life really were that easy...LOL

Sep 18 10:37 PM

[buoy:]

Spammers should always be exposed. Its the only defense we have.
On Sep 18 03:56 PM 31October wrote:

> Mad Hedgehog Spammer does not read replies.
>
> He is a litterbug, tossing empty bottles of wisdom out the window
> of a slowly drifting Buick into the information highway. His illegitimate
> son, Cetin, sometimes bails him out for DUI (Disseminating Useless
> Incoherency).

Sep 19 08:33 AM

[diogeron:]

I definitely agree with your take on this sector. Well said.

As for Ron Paul, as a former academic trained in the sciences, I find it difficult to take anyone seriously who does not accept evolution, especially someone with a medical degree. Frankly, that is like an astronomer who purports to believe in astrology.


On Sep 18 01:38 PM Jade Queen wrote:

> I read this with great interest.
>
> Suntech and SunPower have pretty good websites. If you are interested
> in this sector, you might take a look.
>
> Suntech's site used to be easier to navigate. I personally would
> make the homeowner navigation easier and showcase the see-throughs
> and light-throughs better, but I'm only a smallholder and possible
> purchaser, so what do I know. Suntech's array of products is pretty
> dazzling.
>
> SunPower should probably take advantage of the issues coming up in
> commercial real estate and find a site in a high-unemployment U.S.
> location, splashingly, pr-wise.
>
> Otherwise, if SolarWorld gears up its marketing, SunPower could be
> challenged by SolarWorld. I have visited the SolarWorld production
> facility in Oregon, and it is impressive.
>
> The market for solar is sophisticated. Some will do the research
> to find out where the products are made. What's more, there's the
> Henry-Ford phenomenon of making things affordable for workers and
> their friends and families. SolarWorld also has plans to take its
> cells into schools for kids to assemble into panels. This could be
> an entree into a DIY market. If kids can do it...oh nevermind, kids
> can operate anything gadgety these days. It doesn't mean adults think
> they can, unless some marketer really good at sucking up makes them
> believe it.
>
> The value of non-explosive, non-polluting, quiet, distributed energy
> could shake loose some investment money among those boomers who have
> investments left. There is potential for reducing monthly cost of
> energy and for possibly having a source of income, should energy
> costs increase and the monopolies' ways of operating change.
>
> There is also a possibiliy, in Oregon, of financing the improvement
> so a subsequent owner could assume it. This could arrive elsewhere
> as well, shaking loose some equity from elders, in areas where there
> still is equity. In addition, it would encourage new home purchasers
> to consider cost of operation in their decisions concerning housing.
>
>
> Places like Gainesville, FL, are going ahead. Their ratepayer-owned
> utility has good feed-in arrangements for property owners.
>
> At some point, distributed renewable energy is going to break out.
> The logic for good neighbors who cooperate well is just too convincing
> in these times.
>
> It will be a while before drilling gets good enough for geothermal
> to play in the residential market. Some temperate locations don't
> pencil that well for geo anyway.
>
> I'm baiting the metal bugs here, but I would love to see a solar-cell
> standard as opposed to a gold standard.
>
> Don't get me wrong, I love Ron Paul. I just see his gold thing as
> a blip I don't get. The real standard is energy. Marybe I'm more
> practical than the average ordinary person. I don't get the jewelry
> thing. I know that's unusual, but in some mini-cultures, I am not
> that far out there.
>
> Is there such a thing as a geo-cultural economist? If there is, I'm
> asking again for input from such a person.
>
> I'm all for making the Fed come clean, and as I understand it, Ron
> Paul is getting closer to getting that, after what, thirty years?
>
>
> If they open the can of worms that is the Fed, the U.S. will become
> the destination for soap-opera and tabloid journalists, the world
> over.
>
> Harlem churchgoers won't be able to get in their churches unless
> they get up at 5 a.m. to beat the journalist/tourists. Maybe the
> opportunistic music tourism will even bleed over to Baltimore. Having
> grown up in Maryland, I hope so. I love some of the parts of the
> D.C. area outside the core. Oh ok, I love some parts of the core
> also.
>
> In sales mode, think about a Solar Standard: energy you can cart
> around, made of sand, with the value embedded from labor input. What's
> not to like?
>
> I own STP and SunPower.

Sep 19 08:34 AM

[bartpr:]

this indsutry is too difficult to call. on the one hand there will be growth all over. on the other there are reports of over 200 co in this business. it sound easy to enter then. the technology is simple and the capital investment is small relative to other costly to enter industries.

Sep 19 08:44 AM

[Ferdinand E...:]

Americans prefer oil and coal. What kind of statement is that? As for solar, some of it makes a lot of sense, and a lot of it makes no sense at all.

Sep 19 09:19 AM

[Crude Oil T...:]

I am curious what tickers Seeking Alpha traders are really using for alternative energy. FSLR is such a large percentage of TAN that I am more comfortable playing FSLR on it's own as the best of breed in solar, but what ticker would you consider best of breed in wind power?

Sep 19 09:24 AM

[jerrydd:]

I've found Mad Hedge to be fairly correct in his facts, better than many here. In his post here just what is incorrect?

I don't see as big a demand as fast as the author says as solar/wind farms are outdated models.

The facts are home size RE is far more cost effective once the price bias is not against them so much. And that is changing fast as too high subsidies are being removed and home, small business size installations become the main market.

Why is homes don't have land, transmission lines, overhead or investor costs and they save 2x's as much making them with 2-3x's faster payback. Once panel retail costs drop below $2/wt this market will explode. The solar companies that go for this market will be the big winners with higher margins than the cut throat solar farm market.

Especially profitable will be the panel, inverter, mounting plug and play market sold by the likes of Home Depot, Lowes, even Walmart.
Another big market would be designing the panels as part of the buildings, replacing roof, wall parts such as SIP's for homes to skyscrapers.
The RE market is changing, either get ahead of the curve or you could lose.

Sep 19 09:30 AM

[Tekton:]

Reading this article, and the subsequent posts, makes me realize how conservative in practice investors and columnists are addressing the alternative energy industry. Solar has taken a hit, but it will recover, brilliantly. Continuing technological advances will improve efficiencies and longevity. Contrary to what bartpr says above, it is no more difficult to call than a one horse race. The myriad forms of Solar and non polluting alternatives like wind,tidal, geothermal, geo/heat pump, and biomass energy generation are obvious. So why do I continually see only four or five names associated with these industries?
If you are the least bit cognizant of the explosion of technologies and innovative materials in this world, you must realize that this is yet another industry sector where the little guy really can come up with the backyard/shadetree/garage discovery that changes the world. Save some investment money for these little longshot companies. Seeing that they survive and prosper is the best hedge against seeing sun and wind fall into the same monopolistic system of energy production and distribution that we are currently seeking to extricate ourselves from.

Sep 19 09:36 AM

[WPSPIKER:]

What I didnt see in any of the info above was who will be helping to transmit the energy be it solar or wind. DUK for example has tons of WIND farms, now why they have not started adding SOLAR in the same fields I dont know, (or maybe they have) as DUK reports to be such a large proponent of renewable energy. I do own DUK in my portfolios just to make it known, while there are a few other energy supply companies none seem to be really pushing the renewable sector much.
There are also other manufactures who were not mentioned that have great process for thin film components such as ESLR, (evergreen solar) where cost per watt is still higher than some but the systems are less materials overall and we all are seeing what is happening to materials and what happened last year when companies could not get any silicon to build panels with if & when the demand & all the gov. subsidies come back we may/will probably again see the peak be held back due to raw materials more than actual solar cell production. Other play would be to look at WHO supplies the glass for the solar panels. (GLW) corning maybe I dont own any of them but they could be a more global play? I dont know but again think outside the box as to who would be involved in the overall picture. sure the pure solar company plays are good but with the amount of them out there finding THE ONE is not going to be easy...

mark

Sep 19 09:47 AM

[Jimbo:]

My wife and I both lived in houses in Florida before WWII that had widely used "home made" solar water heaters. They were quite effective. About ten years ago we installed a modern solar water heater, in our Florida home( about 28 degrees North) that has lowered our electric bill at least $50 a month. I have had two estimates for solar-electric panels on our large, south facing, roof area. The estimates seemed cost prohibitive so we passed. This may improve as technology develops. As far as large scale development of solar technology, It should be noted that a commercial scale solar-electric facility is being blocked by folks claiming harm to the California desert environment. One California Senator is proposing to declare Death Valley as a National Monument to block solar. It seems like a rocky road.

Sep 19 12:38 PM

[CLH:]

Sorry to rain on yoour parade with all the clouds. However, solar and wind will never compete with oil, coal and esp nuclear.

Sep 19 02:44 PM

[myword:]

The market continues to defy logic and we're still not putting much new money in. But we are installing a solar energy system by SunPower at our house. Should provide more than 60% of kW use at our current rate of consumption, more after we finish replacing old appliances. We'll see our returns in real money every month as the price of electricity continues to rise.

Sep 19 02:59 PM

[Bigmoneymine:]

Photo-voltaic (PV) solar cannot succeed without being economically competitive head-to-head with existing energy producers. I'm all for solar if it works for you or your business; if you've done the math and determined the cost savings is worth the expense, then go for it. Just don't expect tax-payers to foot the bill via government-sponsored "incentives".

For all you sensitive "greenies" out there: while you're having this big enviro-save-the-planet... you might want consider the dangerous chemicals & carcinogens used to produce all these wonderful solar panels not to mention what happens to old panels that have to be replaced. Recycling? Ri-i-ight, at who's expense? Oh, did you remember the batteries? Gotta have lot's & lots of batteries to store all that power. Gee, I wonder what those are gonna cost?

Closed-circuit passive solar makes more sense to me -- scales up better for utilities. I haven't done the math but I'm willing to bet you could generate 1KW passive-solar (PS) a lot cheaper than PV (depending on the efficiency of the PV panels). PS systems will not degrade over time to the extent that PV will -- older solar panels are less efficient than new ones. The only maintenance in a properly installed PS system would be the easily-replaceable pumps, valves, relays and some minor electronics; those items can be easily refurbished for aftermarket sale or re-cycled.

Of course we could use more natural gas fired power plants to moderate the cost of energy; NG is an abundant domestically-generated "green" fuel. No one knows how much NG we have in the ground but conservative estimates say at least 200 years and that doesn't count supplies from Canada. Why not build more NG power plants instead of all this solar power nonsense? It's cleaner than coal, cheaper / safer than nuclear, plants can be built in 1-2 yr time-frame.

All the government incentives and tax-breaks in the world will not make PV solar competitive with natural gas. In fact, there's not a single economically viable alternative to hydrocarbon fuels in the foreseeable future. Worried about dirty air, carbon emissions, then use cost-effective technological solutions to clean up the fuels we have. We did it with gasoline, we did it with coal ( an can do more).

Sep 19 03:02 PM

[baird:]

Actually when you consider the externalized costs, particularly of coal, solar makes a lot of sense even at current panel/system prices.


On Sep 19 09:19 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> Americans prefer oil and coal. What kind of statement is that? As
> for solar, some of it makes a lot of sense, and a lot of it makes
> no sense at all.

Sep 19 08:09 PM

[biomedlives:]

"Oh, did you remember the batteries?" ?? Don't install batteries; tie into the grid, put your excess power into it, and draw from it when the electricity generated by the solar panels is less than what you use.

Though residential solar may not make financial sense in all states, it's a great investment in New Jersey. We just installed a Suntech system that will generate an annual return of about 20% on our net investment.


On Sep 19 03:02 PM Bigmoneymine wrote:

> Photo-voltaic (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) solar cannot succeed
> without being economically competitive head-to-head with existing
> energy producers. I'm all for solar if it works for you or your business;
> if you've done the math and determined the cost savings is worth
> the expense, then go for it. Just don't expect tax-payers to foot
> the bill via government-sponsored "incentives".
>
> For all you sensitive "greenies" out there: while you're having this
> big enviro-save-the-planet... you might want consider the dangerous
> chemicals & carcinogens used to produce all these wonderful solar
> panels not to mention what happens to old panels that have to be
> replaced. Recycling? Ri-i-ight, at who's expense? Oh, did you remember
> the batteries? Gotta have lot's & lots of batteries to store
> all that power. Gee, I wonder what those are gonna cost?
>
> Closed-circuit passive solar makes more sense to me -- scales up
> better for utilities. I haven't done the math but I'm willing to
> bet you could generate 1KW passive-solar (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> a lot cheaper than PV (depending on the efficiency of the PV panels).
> PS systems will not degrade over time to the extent that PV will
> -- older solar panels are less efficient than new ones. The only
> maintenance in a properly installed PS system would be the easily-replaceable
> pumps, valves, relays and some minor electronics; those items can
> be easily refurbished for aftermarket sale or re-cycled.
>
> Of course we could use more natural gas fired power plants to moderate
> the cost of energy; NG is an abundant domestically-generated "green"
> fuel. No one knows how much NG we have in the ground but conservative
> estimates say at least 200 years and that doesn't count supplies
> from Canada. Why not build more NG power plants instead of all this
> solar power nonsense? It's cleaner than coal, cheaper / safer than
> nuclear, plants can be built in 1-2 yr time-frame.
>
> All the government incentives and tax-breaks in the world will not
> make PV solar competitive with natural gas. In fact, there's not
> a single economically viable alternative to hydrocarbon fuels in
> the foreseeable future. Worried about dirty air, carbon emissions,
> then use cost-effective technological solutions to clean up the fuels
> we have. We did it with gasoline, we did it with coal ( an can do
> more).

Sep 19 08:47 PM

[ralf38:]

Does warranty cover solar panel failure. The panel needs to produce for over a decade to pay back the energy expended producing it.

I recently read that Europe has a quality standard for solar panels that has resulted in the reset of the world receiving the panels that don't make the grade.


On Sep 19 08:09 PM baird wrote:

> Actually when you consider the externalized costs, particularly of
> coal, solar makes a lot of sense even at current panel/system prices.
>

Sep 19 09:07 PM

[woodsey:]

On balance the article and comments have convinced me that solar is a winner. But there is risk, something I need less and less of, so I must be careful.

In the can't win department how about this; this town gets our water from a deep well. I was enjoying hot showers without having to heat water. Then a lady complained that hot water was killing her flowers, so everybody was assessed $25 to buy a cooling unit. When I lived up north people put their water in the sun, because it was too cold for the garden.

Sep 19 11:06 PM

[tom Andersen:]

The only thing that will make solar work is for governments to stop the massive subsidies. When Spain made a big cut prices tumbled 30 - 50 % in months. Unfortunately prices need to come down by a factor of 10 to make it really work. It could work, though - remember when a DVD player cost $500? They are $20 now. The companies that make the 'real' hardware may or may not even exist now. Super scary to invest. But unlike wind, there is actual realistic hope that it might work.

Sep 19 11:56 PM

[HChang:]

Stay with the leader, both in costs and technology, FSLR. Anyone can do solar, but none as good as FSLR. Their order pipelines are filled for the next 3 years. Just give a thought why the chinese government engaged FSLR, when they have so many solar companies themselves. It's because they understand that FSLR have both the technology and costs advantage.

Sep 20 12:18 AM

[dencerspay:]

"Take the long view." Haven't we heard that to be standard words of wisdom?

Always it amazes me that the solar naysayers have such a short view of time as well as cause and effect. When you walk outside on a sunny day, the sensation of heat from the sun (not from oil, gas or nuclear) on your face should be all that is needed to remind you of the true source of all energy on earth. Going directly to this source for our energy makes perfect sense. The economics and efficiencies of sourcing the world's energy from solar will adjust themselves over time.

Meanwhile, for active investors it is a day-to-day market game just like any other. There is a certainty that many of the various solar-related industries are here to stay, though. And wind energy is also generated by the effects of the sun. It will be only the successes or failures in individual business operations and marketing campaigns that dictate who wins or who loses.

As for distributed power generation, this also seems inevitable. Consider: It was not so long ago that Ken Olsen of the old DEC declared that no one had a reason to have a computer in one's home. Before that, IBM's Thomas Watson made his famous alleged 1943 statement: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Clearly we have a developing solar market that is analogous to the computing devices industry, with the innovation taking place "at the edge" - think of mobile computing as the latest example. An earlier example was the networking industry; at first, all connections were wired, shared, and centralized. That worked 'toward the edge' with the roll-out of switched network devices that moved into local office closets and then finally into consumers' homes, hanging off their cable modems, to connect them back into the 'smart computing grid' - the distributed generation of connectivity and consumer e-commerce.

I have been actively tracking (and occasionally investing in) the solar industry for 35 years. It has been very rocky progress (for all the reasons of supply and demand and cost that we read about here) but I still know it is inevitable.

Sep 20 09:09 AM

[dencerspay:]

"Take the long view." Haven't we heard that to be standard words of wisdom?

Always it amazes me that the solar naysayers have such a short view of time as well as cause and effect. When you walk outside on a sunny day, the sensation of heat from the sun (not from oil, gas or nuclear) on your face should be all that is needed to remind you of the true source of all energy on earth. Going directly to this source for our energy makes perfect sense. The economics and efficiencies of sourcing the world's energy from solar will adjust themselves over time.

Meanwhile, for active investors it is a day-to-day market game just like any other. There is a certainty that many of the various solar-related industries are here to stay, though. And wind energy is also generated by the effects of the sun. It will be only the successes or failures in individual business operations and marketing campaigns that dictate who wins or who loses.

As for distributed power generation, this also seems inevitable. Consider: It was not so long ago that Ken Olsen of the old DEC declared that no one had a reason to have a computer in one's home. Before that, IBM's Thomas Watson made his famous alleged 1943 statement: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Clearly we have a developing solar market that is analogous to the computing devices industry, with the innovation taking place "at the edge" - think of mobile computing as the latest example. An earlier example was the networking industry; at first, all connections were wired, shared, and centralized. That worked 'toward the edge' with the roll-out of switched network devices that moved into local office closets and then finally into consumers' homes, hanging off their cable modems, to connect them back into the 'smart computing grid' - the distributed generation of connectivity and consumer e-commerce.

I have been actively tracking (and occasionally investing in) the solar industry for 35 years. It has been very rocky progress (for all the reasons of supply and demand and cost that we read about here) but I still know it is inevitable.

Sep 20 09:11 AM

[dsassyt@aol...:]

Would like to know about ENER. They have the lightest panels. China recently chose their their panels for a large building. They have hundreds of patents and still get some royalties for their battery.

Sep 20 11:49 AM

[econjunkie:]

I have been making the comments for a while now, that Mad Hedge Fund Trader is likely not who he says his pseudonym is. I think his profile should be removed.

Sep 20 04:08 PM

[rennert:]

Who need solar when the economy is in tanking.Well, it is not going to get any better until grandma and all her GARDEN CLUB FRIENDS GET A DECENT RETURN ON THEIR CD's. They are looking at their nest eggs with angry, fearful eyes. The only thing they buy is toilette paper and some nibbles. Inflation is here, food and doc,and vet bills are climbing through the roof. Even we are told by those stinking lying economists that we have almost deflation. Really, just because houses are cheaper now. Who needs another house every week, but we need to eat every day and take care of ourselfes and Fido. And that is getting more and more expensive, many are stuffing cheap junky food in to their bellys just to get themselfes and their families full. Bartering is going on all over the country now. The American families can not recover if they do not get any returns on their savings. Only the Rich are getting fatter than what they already are from these low interest rates.

Sep 20 05:36 PM

[jerrydd:]

Again ecojunkie, just what in his post is wrong? You, others bash but never put any facts up.
I know several of the subjects he writes about very well and he normally hits it right.


On Sep 20 04:08 PM econjunkie wrote:

> I have been making the comments for a while now, that Mad Hedge Fund
> Trader is likely not who he says his pseudonym is. I think his profile
> should be removed.

Sep 20 06:11 PM

[MSimon:]

Rockford, Illinois is getting a Chinese solar manufacturer.

rockrivertimes.com/200.../

Wanxiang America Corporation Photovoltaic Solar Panel Manufacturing Facility held an official groundbreaking ceremony Tuesday, Sept. 15, at the Rockford Global Tradepark, 5985 Logistics Parkway, corner of Blackhawk Road and Logistics Parkway.

In attendance were Mayor Larry Morrissey; Pin Ni, president of Wanxiang America; State Sen. Dave Syverson; State Rep. Chuck Jefferson; Winnebago County Board Chairman Scott Christiansen; Janyce Fadden of the RAECD; Mike Dunn of GRAA; representatives from the Chinese Consulate; Jeff Polsean from the ILDCEO; and Rockford aldermen.

Sep 21 08:29 PM