Looking for Lower GDP Growth

by: David Andrew Taylor

GDP came in revised upward at 2.9% vs. 2.5%. The first quarter saw an increase of 5.6%. So, there is some slowing compared to the previous quarter. However, at 2.9%, that puts this economy at what most would consider full potential. From here, we begin to see the most recent interest rates that have yet to work their way into the system. These rate increases are likely to be more in the 4% - 4.75% range due to the lagged effects.

This may throw a small wrench into the interest rate debate. More growth may mean more aggregate demand. Just when you thought the pause was a sure thing, we see growth improved. I'm still in the camp that there is plenty more interest rates that need to be worked into the system. Although the results may not be at the lickity-split pace that some are hopeful for to contain inflation, I think the results will be there. Just be patient.

As for future growth in the U.S., I'm taking a look at narrowing down when the first decline in GDP will show up. I'll have more on that later today, hopefully.

All-in-all, this doesn't really do a lot in regards to trading action for today. This is, essentially, "old news". Our focus has to be more in line with "what's next", not what's already happened. And since this information is based on the second three months of this year, it doesn't do a whole lot for us today, except perhaps to tell us that we've not seen enough of a slowdown yet.