Two Positive Notes for Arena Pharmaceuticals

Arena (ARNA) releases more top-line pivotal data on flagship obesity drug lorcaserin, this time from its BLOSSOM study (Behavioral modification and Lorcaserin Second Study for Obesity Management) Friday 9/18, before market open.

Two things that could be great for ARNA:

1. Better overall mean weight-loss data. So far from ARNA's earlier data, we have 3.6% placebo-adjusted weight-loss over one year. The FDA efficacy benchmark is 5% (but reminder: this is one of two efficacy benchmarks, only one of which needs to be met, and lorcaserin so far has met the other benchmark, known as the "categorical" benchmark). For comparison, Vivus's Qnexa just turned in results of 9.6% mean weight loss from its pivotal EQUIP study (uncomplicated obese patients with some diet and behavioral modification).
2. Anything that would suggest the company is closing in on identifying a population of strong responders to lorcaserin.

Disclosure: No positions

Comments

[gursharantt:]

Yes I agree and ARNA produced a very safe drug. It will be approved.

Sep 18 08:23 AM

[Grumann:]

Ruthanne, All of these obesity drug trails seem to have a "behavioral modification" component that applies to all patients. I often wonder if these vary significantly. If the Qnexa coaching is more vigorous than that in the Locaserin trails, that would explain some variance in the overall weight loss results. Did placebo patients on Qnexa lose more than placebo patients on Lorcaserin?

Sep 18 10:13 AM

[Ruthanne Wi...:]

@ Grumann -- The short answer is that only one of all these various Phase III trials, the first of the four Contrave results released by Orexigen, had so much significantly more stringent diet and exercise regime than everyone else's that it made the results hard to compare. But stacking all the placebo results up next to each other, now that we have them, and confirming that assumption would be a great exercise for the weekend. The main reason there is any "behavioral modification" at all is so that the placebo patients do not all get so discouraged at their lack of weight loss that they drop out.

Sep 18 02:36 PM

[Penn Bioinv...:]

Looks you have an agenda to post here? Doesn't looks like you are speaking the fact ARNA drug only produce merely 3.1% and 2.2% weight loss in two years!

Safe? Eat food a few cal less everyday will produce a much better weight loss. LOL.

Sep 18 09:25 PM

[Penn Bioinv...:]

I just checked your previous posts, looks you are always an ARNA pumper, and you kept bashing VVUS, although tried your best to make you looks like fair and objective.

As to myself? I am a trader, never fall in love with any stocks and make big bucks all the time. You need to wake up from your fantasy. Game over for ARNA, period.

Sep 18 09:41 PM

[balabanovj:]

Regarding Lorcaserin, the following points should be noted:

Firstly, the upper quartile of the BLOSSOM study lost 16.3% of their body weight, an amount of weight just shy of Qnexa's drug. Many drugs have a profile where they benefit a specific subset of patients more than others, and Lorcaserin is one of them. So in that regard, Lorcaserin will have very significant benefits for that group and of course less for others. Secondly, Lorcaserin can be prescribed long term- anything with phentermine in it, simply cannot. Lorcaserin also has great co-morbid benefits that Qnexa's drug doesn't- decrease in blood pressure, increase in HDL cholesterol, decrease in lipids and enhanced glucose uptake profile. Lorcaserin is also a single agent, minimizing interaction potential with other drugs these patients might be on. And lastly, Lorcaserin will definately be the only drug to be prescribed to a large portion of the population who simply cannot take drugs like phertermine- hypertensives, those predisposed to CVA's, those with just about any sort of underlying coronary pathology, etc. So Lorcaserin definately has a huge market and will satisfy a very large unmet need in those currently untreated because of their own unrelated health issues.

James Balaban, M.D.

Sep 18 10:23 PM

[Ruthanne Wi...:]

Certainly, I have an agenda, and I'll state it right here. My agenda is that I have a big beef with that Michael Murphy guy -- I understand he recommended ARNA but I didn't see it myself, so I may be wrong there. But my beef is that like many people who grew up listening to AM radio in the 70's, I can't stand that sappy song about the pony who got lost in the blizzard and the girl who went running "Wildfire."

Seriously, I don't own any of these obesity stocks and I try to call 'em as I see 'em. I have also been known to modify my views over the months.

Sep 19 01:34 PM

[makk:]

Hmm? My Dr says to me " I have this drug (vvus)you take once a day and you can lose 9% of your weight in 6 months to a year or you can take this drug (arna) 2x a day and lose 3%". Sounds like a no brainer to me. There is a reason the market values VVUS stock at double the cap of ARNA. I do think lorcasrin will be approved but the numbers dont compare to qnexa and contrave. Why buy 3rd in class?

Sep 19 04:11 PM

[gursharantt:]

VVUS trial used strict diet control and exercise but ARNA trials only used the drug. If ARNA had those criteria, result would have been same. Also ARNA drug is top in safety, which many docs will consider before recommending.

Sep 19 10:28 PM

[Penn Bioinv...:]

This Michael Murphy predicted DNDN will go to $360/share very soon early this year. I just asked him if he will allow me to sell all my DNDN shares to him at $180/share, so he can make 2X on it.

What a great investor, LOL.

Anyway, You are a lot more objective than him, he is a disaster.

On Sep 19 01:34 PM Ruthanne Williams Roussel wrote:

> Certainly, I have an agenda, and I'll state it right here. My agenda
> is that I have a big beef with that Michael Murphy guy -- I understand
> he recommended ARNA but I didn't see it myself, so I may be wrong
> there. But my beef is that like many people who grew up listening
> to AM radio in the 70's, I can't stand that sappy song about the
> pony who got lost in the blizzard and the girl who went running "Wildfire."
>
>
> Seriously, I don't own any of these obesity stocks and I try to call
> 'em as I see 'em. I have also been known to modify my views over
> the months.

Sep 20 09:38 PM

[balabanovj:]

For you, maybe qnexa would be the right choice, but for many others, safety would be the first consideration as well med/med interactions. Another potential use of Lorcaserin, provided the safety profile holds up long term is to prescribe it chronically for appetite mitigation. Most of us who lose weight fail to keep it off. As a doctor, and having treated many diabetics for example, who come in with skyrocketing blood sugar levels, you can tell them 'till you're blue in the face that they reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeealy need to lose weight, but 99/100 times, they just wont. Lorcaserin might be able to be Rx'd for years to acheive long term appetite suppression, enabling those who have lost weight, to keep it off.


On Sep 19 04:11 PM makk wrote:

> Hmm? My Dr says to me " I have this drug (vvus)you take once a day
> and you can lose 9% of your weight in 6 months to a year or you can
> take this drug (arna) 2x a day and lose 3%". Sounds like a no brainer
> to me. There is a reason the market values VVUS stock at double the
> cap of ARNA. I do think lorcasrin will be approved but the numbers
> dont compare to qnexa and contrave. Why buy 3rd in class?

Sep 21 12:44 AM