Bill Cara Calls a Top in the India Closed-End Funds (IFN, IIF)

"I’m going to forecast that the closed-end Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund (NYSE: IIF) has reached a peak, and will now either decline or sidetrack for many months from this point. I think the enthusiasm has been overdone...", wrote Bill Cara on Aug 12 2005. Although time will tell for certain, so far he appears to have successfully called a top...

Three weeks later:

Nice job, Bill. [Bill Cara's original negative blog entry on the near-term prospects for share prices in India.]

Comments

[SeekingAlpha Editors:]

Bill quoted a reader comment in his blog entry: Bill, I think something is out-of-whack when a closed-end-fund like IIF trades at such a high premium. A discount is more normal because of lack of liquidity of the underlying (foreign) asset. I merely wanted to point out that hot money chasing these stocks is bidding the premium up and down, and therefore the unusual volatility. For example, there are at least four opportunities in the last 12 months to buy IIF at near net asset value.

www.etfconnect.com/sel...

2005 Aug 30 12:30 AM

[tkrisk:]

Bill,

How do I short the indian market....my wachovia broker...said the funds weren't available to short? ....Thanks in advance

2005 Sep 08 03:39 PM

[SeekingAlpha Editors:]

Hi tkrisk,

1. We just confirmed the difficulty in shorting these funds. Schwab says, "This stock is either ineligible to be shorted or shares are not available to short."

2. We have emailed Bill Cara and asked him to respond to your comment.

Regards!

2005 Sep 08 04:02 PM