The Case for Precious Metals Is Only Getting Stronger 36 comments
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Whoever thinks we are out of the woods is in for a rude awakening. We are merely in the eye of the storm. I won't even get into the catastrophe that will be commercial real estate, rather the next likely current bailout experiment which is the FHA or perhaps the next round of banking crisis (see below). The following facts would be actually quite entertaining if the bailout money wasn't coming directly out of the taxpayers’ pockets --> the printing press (more inflation).
The FHA now controls over a trillion in existing / recently originated mortgages.
They are requiring a 3% (which almost 0% when tax credits are included) down payment for new home loans. That being said, there will be a flurry of new eager individuals wishing to own a home.
NOW FOR THE KICKER..... FHA has a mere $35 BILLION!, yes only $35 BILLION! in loan loss reserves before they go broke as well (reminiscent of Amtrak, The Postal Service, etc). This all comes in the face of ARMs about to reset in the coming year and 2011, unemployment headed towards double digits... Get the point? Did I mention they own over a trillion dollars of mortgages, a number that is climbing by the second?
This calamity will result in hundreds of billions of mortgage defaults... and do you think the government will just let them roll over and die? Past precedent tells me NO, but that is just my gut speaking.
It is not enough that they only have a mere $35 billion to cover future defaults, but rather that they continue to originate loans at a torrid pace. Easy money and reckless lending got us into the mess in the first place. Maybe I'm just the crazy one but this seems to me that this can only exacerbate the current situation. Now let’s incorporate our trading partners' public remarks (imagine what is being said behind closed doors) of 2009. In other words, our foreign money spigots are being taken away - which can only include debt monetization (whether publicly announced or through a phantom agency the Fed will or has been using to purchases debt securities).
Recent headlines of the new Japanese regime send a strong signal they will no longer subsidize the U.S economy via purchasing our debt (which only has weakened the Yen as they borrow money from their own citizens to prop up the illusory economy we have seen in the U.S over the decade). Let's not forget the China-Brazil agreement which more or less says trade among these two respective countries will be done using Remimbi /Yuan and Real.
It is also worth noting the actions taken by the Chinese this year apart from the aforementioned China-Brazil news. Though China has continued to purchase U.S debt (though at a much slower pace), they have been swapping longer term maturities i.e. 10, 30- year for much shorter term i.e. 1, 5-year. This speaks for itself! They have caught on to our devious strategy of paying them back with incredibly depreciated dollars, but have slowly and intelligently moved into debt that will mature in a much more timely manner negating to some extent the debasement of the currency they will be re-repatriated in. It is also quite interesting that the Chinese government has recently been promoting their citizens to purchase much safer stores of value i.e. the precious metals. This most likely has to do with the fact that they will wait for the U.S to begin raising the FED Funds rate (Yes pigs do have wings) before they increase their prime rate. This paragraph is laying the foundation for China's eventual exit strategy (yes, it is China which has an exit strategy, not the U.S).
My take on the situation: Now is not the time to be complacent unless you are comfortable with watching the purchasing power of your savings disappear before your eyes. By this, I am referring to that held in both government or any other U.S debt and the US Dollar. I have gone from hearing "we are in a deflationary spiral" one year ago to forecasts from individuals from every school of economic thought expecting a long term downtrend in the dollar. These statements (deflation and a falling dollar) are contradictory as deflation would manifest itself in a strengthening dollar (which we have obviously not seen as the U.S dollar index has gone from a 2009 high of about 89 to the current level of 76 or YTD decline of over 14.5%). Facing reality is often a tough thing to do but how many people expect no more banking crisis? I gather the Fed very much expects these illustrated from the 700+ Billion in excess reserves lying dormant in the system. Now I think at least 75%+ of that will be used to cover future loan losses but these are very inter-related as the inability to cover off the loan losses will cause the next round of bank failures or more eloquently referred to as BAILOUTS.
Not to sound redundant, but the brief list is my best strategy to protect your wealth from the inflation tsunami about to hit.
Physical bullion - both Silver and Gold - Those closer to retirement would likely prefer all or a significant percent weighting in this asset class to Gold due to the less violent day-day volatility. Though silver will likely outperform due to the substantial industrial aspect as well as its monetary value, Gold should be a part of every individual’s holdings. Like Marc Faber recently said “You have to be your own central bank”. These can also be owned electronically via the SPDR'S Gold ETF (GLD) and the silver counterpart (SLV). For those who are skeptical of mining equities, leverage can be found in the double gold ETF (DGL) and double Silver ETF (DBS).
The Precious Metal Royalty Companies: Franco- Nevada (FNNVF.PK), Royal Gold (RGLD), and Silver Wheaton (SLW). These provide leverage with reduced mining risk as they put forward an initial capital outlay to a precious metal miner in exchange for a pre-determined percentage of that which is mines for a specific amount of time.
Gold and Silver Mining equities, which can be broken down as follows: The largest gold producers - Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), and a few others. The next group consists of the emerging seniors - Yamana Gold (AUY), Agnico- Eagle Mines (AEM), Lihir Gold (LIHR), RandGold (GOLD) among others. This group provides the most leverage to the underlying metals relative to those mentioned thus-far but also carry some additional risk. The next group (emerging mid-tier/ juniors) is in my opinion are the most lucrative assuming you put forth your own due diligence i.e assessing the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the company. That being said I prefer such miners as Jaguar (JAG), Aurizon (AZK), Kirkland Lake (KGILF.PK) and many others.
In my humble opinion I feel it will be the often relatively overlooked SILVER miners who end up outperforming in this industry. My favorites are Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE), Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), First Majestic Silver (FRMSF.PK) and a host of others.
Some other ways to play this are of course the oil complex and my favorite (next to mining), Agriculture. I particularly like the Canadian Oil Trusts and Canadian Oil Sands. The Following is a brief list of some of favorite ways to plays this (though not my top picks): PennGrowth (PGH) , Canadian Oil Sands Unit Trusts (COSWF.PK), Suncor (SU), Talisman (TLM) and New Zealand Oil and Gas (NZO.AX). I think my ramblings have dragged on a bit too long but my favorite agriculture plays are wheat and corn (I have yet to put in the necessary time to explore the supply-demand fundamentals of other potentially profitable investments in the complex).
Other ways to play a falling dollar Australian Currency Shares (FXA), Canadian Currency Shares (CAD), Ultra-Bearish USD (UDN).
Disclosure: Long: (AUY), (AEM) 2011' Calls, (KGILF.PK), (JAG), (CDE), (SLW) (SSRI) Calls, (FRMMSF.PK), (FNNVF.PK), (PGH), (COSWF.PK), (SU), (TLM) Calls, Wheat Futures, Mini-Silver Futures
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This article has 36 comments:
Selling at a retailer, for those that dumb, implies you are not educated in investing in gold for the purpose of making money. I would advise you get educated since this is one of the very few investments that has made money in the last 10 years.
On Sep 21 10:16 AM tuj wrote:
> What the heck are you going to do with physical gold? Ultimately
> you'll have to take it to a retailer and lose premium on it. Now
> if you think all the banks are going to collapse and so is the USD,
> you should put your money in a bunker and stockpile food and water
> rather than gold. If the apocalypse happens, I don't think anyone
> will care about your gold coins when they are hungry, thirsty, and
> need petrol. Or at least have some smelting equipment so you can
> make new denominations.
If we enter into a protracted caveman status then you probably have been (lucky) enough to survive a nuclear war. I believe lead would be the commodity of choice at that point. I'm not arguing golds rise just not sure how well it shoots.
On Sep 21 11:24 AM doubleguns wrote:
> You must be assuming we go back to caveman status and remain there.
> Piling dollars in the bunker assumes we still have a fiat currency
> during cavemen days, food/water good, dollar not good. Unless you
> need toilet paper and even then its not very practical. Better to
> stock the real stuff, wipes much better.
>
> Selling at a retailer, for those that dumb, implies you are not educated
> in investing in gold for the purpose of making money. I would advise
> you get educated since this is one of the very few investments that
> has made money in the last 10 years.
>
> On Sep 21 10:16 AM tuj wrote:
Strangely, the last time we hit full blown meltdown paranoia, the dollar rallied as treasuries became the safe haven investment. This perverse effect caused gold and silver to slump during the worst of the crisis, just when we gold investors thought it would skyrocket.
The USA is like Roger Federer. Still the champ until taken down. We are in the 5th set of this match and it looks like we have some problems ahead. But will it break the USA? Will we crumble and be replaced? Or will we be able to hold serve and muddle through?
History tells us that the champ, no matter how good, eventually gets beaten as Roger did at the US Open.
The new champ will be China. They have been able to combine strategic planning with capitalism to come out on top in the next 10 years.
If you review the events of the last 10 years in the US, you have to conclude that capitalism is a poor strategic planning mechanism. Greed creates bubbles and bubbles destroy wealth.
Look at the California Energy Crisis, the Sub Prime crisis, our energy policy (none for 25 years) and you will see a total lack of strategic vision and a reliance on greed (and Cheney) to make our decisions.
The Republican mantra of deregulation had led us to the brink of ruin.
Unfortunately, the party that replaced them in power is even more clueless as to how to run an economy. They believe, deep down, that value is created by attorneys and will create a system where attorneys thrive and entrepreneurs must find a new way to make a living because it is just too difficult to start a new company in a worker/lawyer dominated economy.
Democrats want to give it away, and anyone who has run a business knows that if you give it away, you will be gone in short order.
So I say hedge your gold, silver, Oil and Agriculture with some hot growth stocks from China.
So why take physical delivery? If its an "investment" then why not remain financial? Unless you believe the financial system will collapse, which would probably be akin to "caveman status".
On Sep 21 11:24 AM doubleguns wrote:
> You must be assuming we go back to caveman status and remain there.
> Piling dollars in the bunker assumes we still have a fiat currency
> during cavemen days, food/water good, dollar not good. Unless you
> need toilet paper and even then its not very practical. Better to
> stock the real stuff, wipes much better.
>
> Selling at a retailer, for those that dumb, implies you are not educated
> in investing in gold for the purpose of making money. I would advise
> you get educated since this is one of the very few investments that
> has made money in the last 10 years.
>
> On Sep 21 10:16 AM tuj wrote:
Play with the miners, ETF's or any paper metal to make money.
Do not play with physical to make money. That you keep and pass on to your children as an inheritace. Somewhere along the way it WILL be needed. Consider it LIFE insurance that YOU may actually get to spend yourself some day. Hopefully you dont!!!
On Sep 21 12:57 PM Merigolden wrote:
> Doubleguns, in your opinion, what is the most advantageous way to
> sell physical bullion? Thanks for your comment.
On Sep 21 02:25 PM tuj wrote:
> "You must be assuming we go back to caveman status and remain there."
>
>
> So why take physical delivery? If its an "investment" then why not
> remain financial? Unless you believe the financial system will collapse,
> which would probably be akin to "caveman status".
1 or 2 boxes of lead will only attract attention as you deplete it rather quickly. You must think bigger.
On Sep 21 11:58 AM SAS70 wrote:
> Double-
> If we enter into a protracted caveman status then you probably have
> been (lucky) enough to survive a nuclear war. I believe lead would
> be the commodity of choice at that point. I'm not arguing golds rise
> just not sure how well it shoots.
Holding onto physical is really the whole point though, just like DG advised.
On Sep 21 10:16 AM tuj wrote:
> What the heck are you going to do with physical gold? Ultimately
> you'll have to take it to a retailer and lose premium on it. Now
> if you think all the banks are going to collapse and so is the USD,
> you should put your money in a bunker and stockpile food and water
> rather than gold. If the apocalypse happens, I don't think anyone
> will care about your gold coins when they are hungry, thirsty, and
> need petrol. Or at least have some smelting equipment so you can
> make new denominations.
On Sep 21 04:04 PM 5142152-337 wrote:
> I have two safes full with gold and silver! Why, because I don't
> TRUST our government, AND Wall St. Buying PAPER silver and gold
> is, to me, OBSCENE...and STUPID. Of course, that's just me...and
> my accumulation has done very well, indeed, these past few years!
-Just my two cents
On Sep 21 03:09 PM doubleguns wrote:
> My physical bullion is an insurance policy for an event that could
> occur like a collapse in the fiat currency. It is not likely but
> it is getting more likely by the minute as Ben and Timmy keep the
> presses rolling. Many other events could cause this also and I do
> not have a crystal ball to tell you what they are. If you have car,
> home, life ect... insurance than you understand what physical metal
> is for. You should not sell your physical. You may need to "spend"
> it.
>
> Play with the miners, ETF's or any paper metal to make money. <br/>
>
> Do not play with physical to make money. That you keep and pass on
> to your children as an inheritace. Somewhere along the way it WILL
> be needed. Consider it LIFE insurance that YOU may actually get to
> spend yourself some day. Hopefully you dont!!!
>
>
>
>
On Sep 21 10:16 AM tuj wrote:
> What the heck are you going to do with physical gold? Ultimately
> you'll have to take it to a retailer and lose premium on it. Now
> if you think all the banks are going to collapse and so is the USD,
> you should put your money in a bunker and stockpile food and water
> rather than gold. If the apocalypse happens, I don't think anyone
> will care about your gold coins when they are hungry, thirsty, and
> need petrol. Or at least have some smelting equipment so you can
> make new denominations.
On Sep 21 01:06 PM mr freddo wrote:
> But wait. Ben said the recession was over. Don't you believe him?
> A weak recovery yes, but growth rather than contraction.
>
> Strangely, the last time we hit full blown meltdown paranoia, the
> dollar rallied as treasuries became the safe haven investment. This
> perverse effect caused gold and silver to slump during the worst
> of the crisis, just when we gold investors thought it would skyrocket.
>
>
> The USA is like Roger Federer. Still the champ until taken down.
> We are in the 5th set of this match and it looks like we have some
> problems ahead. But will it break the USA? Will we crumble and
> be replaced? Or will we be able to hold serve and muddle through?
>
>
> History tells us that the champ, no matter how good, eventually gets
> beaten as Roger did at the US Open.
>
> The new champ will be China. They have been able to combine strategic
> planning with capitalism to come out on top in the next 10 years.
>
>
> If you review the events of the last 10 years in the US, you have
> to conclude that capitalism is a poor strategic planning mechanism.
> Greed creates bubbles and bubbles destroy wealth.
>
> Look at the California Energy Crisis, the Sub Prime crisis, our energy
> policy (none for 25 years) and you will see a total lack of strategic
> vision and a reliance on greed (and Cheney) to make our decisions.
>
>
> The Republican mantra of deregulation had led us to the brink of
> ruin.
>
> Unfortunately, the party that replaced them in power is even more
> clueless as to how to run an economy. They believe, deep down, that
> value is created by attorneys and will create a system where attorneys
> thrive and entrepreneurs must find a new way to make a living because
> it is just too difficult to start a new company in a worker/lawyer
> dominated economy.
>
> Democrats want to give it away, and anyone who has run a business
> knows that if you give it away, you will be gone in short order.
>
>
> So I say hedge your gold, silver, Oil and Agriculture with some hot
> growth stocks from China.
On Sep 21 02:25 PM tuj wrote:
> "You must be assuming we go back to caveman status and remain there."
>
>
> So why take physical delivery? If its an "investment" then why not
> remain financial? Unless you believe the financial system will collapse,
> which would probably be akin to "caveman status".
-Just a comment to add to yours- though Ebay is basically like a black market in itself.
On Sep 21 03:18 PM optionsgirl wrote:
> I read that ebay is a good way to sell physical metal, because you
> are not subjected to the broker's fee- you have to set up a paypal
> account or somehow assure prompt payment prior to the sale.
> Holding onto physical is really the whole point though, just like
> DG advised.
There is no guaranty on the purity of the Gold nugget or piece of Gold money.
----------------------...
"what the heck are you going to do with worthless paper money?"
---That was the best short answer to say.
On Sep 21 10:16 AM tuj wrote:
> What the heck are you going to do with physical gold?
But I can say it is very cheap not, I can say only barely moving up.
Look here ---------------- "January 21st, 1980's legendary gold close of $850 translates into $2358 in today's dollars! So what the financial media is gleefully calling an all-time high today, insinuating gold is radically overbought and due for a plunge, isn't even halfway up to this metal's real all-time high. As of Wednesday's $1018 close, gold had merely climbed to 43% of the climax of its previous secular bull."
This article explain everything (VG good read):
www.gold-eagle.com/gol...
On Sep 21 08:24 PM Clint007 wrote:
> When I heard people saying the price of Gold is "very" high! That
> make me :) and lol
> But I can say it is very cheap not, I can say only barely moving
> up.
> Look here ---------------- "January 21st, 1980's legendary gold
> close of $850 translates into $2358 in today's dollars! So what the
> financial media is gleefully calling an all-time high today, insinuating
> gold is radically overbought and due for a plunge, isn't even halfway
> up to this metal's real all-time high. As of Wednesday's $1018 close,
> gold had merely climbed to 43% of the climax of its previous secular
> bull."
> This article explain everything (VG good read):
> www.gold-eagle.com/gol...
Note: Prior confiscation by the U.S government was voluntary and people willing to give up their wealth to bureaucrats deserve to have it taken away (joke). I also think US bank safety deposit boxes present a danger. I would Bury my metals in the ground and draw a treasure map sooner than give them to a bank.
On Sep 21 11:56 PM The Recusant wrote:
> I agree with the author's ideas almost entirely. However, I would
> love to hear how the government will react to the situation of high
> inflation once it gets moving. Of course, they will attempt to raise
> interest. Perhaps they will allow the dollar to devalue to a obscene
> point to encourage exports that would boost employment. Hopefully
> they won't confiscate gold or silver. They could, however, pull numerous
> other rabbits out of their silk hats, like forbidding foreign investments
> or even nationalizing the PM mines in the US. What other ways would
> have to squeeze us? Got any ideas?
Succinctly and elegantly stated.
1) We fully agree with the crowd that there is a strong probability of the USD as a fiat currency to either collapse or be replaced by a supranational currency/standard of exchange. However, we are not sure if storing our assets nominated in another currency is the answer because the other currency may just as well collapse in the aftermath of the USD collapse. Then there is the conversion problem since we reside in the USA. How do we know whether the foreign currency will be accepted by the US Govn to exchange for another medium that has purchasing power locally?
2) We believe the best bet would be Australia and Canada (and Brazil to a lesser extent) because these are a) free countries with convertible (for now) currencies b) countries that are anchored by their substantial natural resources i.e. PM, base metals, agri products, oil/gas, etc. and therefore stands less of a chance of collapse in their currencies. However, we worry about the problem of repatriation because of a) the aforementioned US Gov willingness to exchange or the lack of a market maker for the exchange in lieu of the US Gov. unless we venture into black market; b) the lack of legal protection of our owner status because the brokerage resides and incorporates in another country.
Clearly, the above missive is predicated upon the assumption that when the USD goes, the entire structure of the market as we know it (not just investments but anything that requires a medium of exchange) will go to hell in a hand basket. Am I being Chicken Little here? I should tell you that if I stash away small things I always lose them, and I don't like guns...
The best exit strategy (the buzz phrase of the moment) for us and for the USA is for an orderly transition from the USD standard to a supranational medium of exchange before the USD completely collapses. In which case, gold will play a central role in the medium. I think silver too, because there is just not enough of the yellow stuff to nominate and represent the total value of the entire world's products and services. Alas, this scenario is not highly probable because it will take a decade to heck out an agreement (look at the creation of the Euro), and the USD can go very soon.
Sorry about the rambling, but your opinion would be much appreciated.
Money is released to the public through loans correct? Or through some government program of some sort.
Is it possible that the housing crash (reset of Alt-A and Option ARMS) will delay the hit of inflation? Wouldn't the destruction of these loans/banks/etc just offset any newly created money in the short term? The banks know they have a lot of deliquent loans...they know the foreclosures coming....and their reserves are increasing....at a too slow of rate anyway.
So how is this money that the fed is creating going to hit the streets if all the banks are hoarding it? Would the credit loss be greater than the new money created?
The fed cannot raise interest rates as this will create further inflation UNLESS they can get people to buy their bonds...otherwise, since they are on basically adjustable rate debt themselves....they would just be increasing the interest payments on their own debt.
I agree with everyones view long term....but not sure about short term (before 2012) because of a deeper housing crisis.
On Sep 24 10:34 AM Andy1234 wrote:
> My question is this.
>
> Money is released to the public through loans correct? Or through some government program of some sort.
>
> Is it possible that the housing crash (reset of Alt-A and Option ARMS) will delay the hit of inflation? Wouldn't the destruction of these loans/banks/etc just offset any newly created money in the short term? The banks know they have a lot of deliquent loans...they know the foreclosures coming....and their reserves are increasing....at a too slow of rate anyway.
>
> So how is this money that the fed is creating going to hit the streets
> if all the banks are hoarding it? Would the credit loss be greater
> than the new money created?
>
> The fed cannot raise interest rates as this will create further inflation UNLESS they can get people to buy their bonds...otherwise, since they are on basically adjustable rate debt themselves....they would just be increasing the interest payments on their own debt.
>
> I agree with everyones view long term....but not sure about short
term (before 2012) because of a deeper housing crisis.
I didn't get an answer to my question in your response. You had intimated that selling to a dealer was dumb. Well, I had to scratch my head, because I was unaware that there was another way to do it. I figured you knew a more lucrative avenue, but now I suspect you do not, because your answer sidestepped. If you do have an alternative to a dealer up your sleve (besides Ebay), please tell me what it is because I will need to trade some bullion for some cash very soon for a real estate transaction. Thanks.
On Sep 21 03:12 PM doubleguns wrote:
> See comment to merrigolden. Answer is the same.
THE MILITARY KICKED OUT THE OLD WEIMAR REPUBLIC, JAMMED IN A BUTCHER NAME HITLER, IMPLEMENTED A NEW CURRENCY AND PUT PEOPLE TO WORK BUILDING THE AUTOBAHNS AND ALL MANNER OF WEAPONS. TO KEEP EVERYBODY ON TRACK THEY STARTED WHAT TURNED INTO WWII THE POPULATION WAS HAPPY UNTIL THE BOMBS STARTED FALLING ON BERLIN.
SAY IT CAN'T HAPPEN?? HOPE NOT. I SPENT SEVERAL YEARS IN GERMANY AND TALKED TO A LOT OF WWII PEOPLE AND THEY DIDN'T SEE IT COMING EITHER UNTIL IT WAS TO LATE.
Depending on how much you are looking to sell and in what form (brick, coins, small ingots?????). You could try an auction. Many are selling ingots and coins thru auction houses right now and are getting about $2 more per ounce than market price that day (roughly). Gold is doing slightly better from what I have been seeing. Typically, auctioneers are getting between 10% and 18% buyer fee on top of selling price (silver between $16.50 and $21.00 per ounce (on market price at $14 - $16). From what I see, prices are higher on coasts (florida, california, washington) and a little cheaper in the midwest. Lot of auctions occur on-line at a variety of sites.
A devastating depression would be good for the dollar.
Our government is telling us that there will be higher taxes, tighter credit, and no more bailouts.
If that's the truth - you want cash, not gold. And your own food source and probably a machine gun or two.
I agree, you don't even have to look that far back in history. Zimbabwe doesn't really share the any of the same characteristics with regards to how they approached de-basing their currency into oblivion. The Zimbabwe economy is one where most citizens didn't have bank accounts and whose transactions were completed mostly in cash. The U.S economy is one where everything is done electronically, thus inflating doesn't require physically printing every dollar. Even Ben Bernanke has admitted as much when he publicly said they more or less increase bank reserves by adding 000's to the banks account at the FED. This is very reminiscent in my opinion of the Hyperinflation in Argentina back in 1990, where they relied on electronic means to inflate.
On Oct 11 01:14 AM User 498681 wrote:
> This is a real entertaining article and thread, these are the numerous
> problems I see in the current crisis as a American citizens born
> and raised. You always have to look back to history as a very good
> predicator of what the future entails. I will not go to far back
> but in the early 1900's when the stock market was in its early days
> there was hardly any regulation and big doggs could inflate stocks
> making it look promising then manipulate the price with their buying
> power. Now present day 2009 a lot of American's believe that some
> how things have changed or we can regulate the stock market and the
> housing industry. The problem is history repeats itself I see the
> same thing going on to this day wealthy crooked business men selling
> uninformed people mutual funds and stocks and such that will not
> perform in the long run. Call me crazy but I say silver is the way
> to go currently. At its closing price of 17.70 usd if you have say
> invest 5 or 10 grand you can get enough of it right now to possibly
> flip it in the next couple of years and make a substantial profit.
> Thats just my two sense and my opinion on what the future holds.